By Richard Ogunsile

The leaders of the BRICS nations, representing around half of the global population and 40% of global economic output, are gathering in Rio de Janeiro this Sunday for their annual summit.

Naija News reports that while the main focus is expected to be a unified stance on challenging what they deem as unfair U.S. trade policies, the summit is grappling with deep divisions over ongoing crises in the Middle East.

Since taking office in January, United States (U.S) President Donald Trump has drawn widespread criticism for his hardline trade tactics, threatening both allies and rivals with punitive tariffs.

This summit is set to address the economic uncertainty created by Trump’s trade policies, particularly the imposition of new tariffs on goods from several countries, which are expected to take effect on July 9.

Despite growing frustrations over the U.S. trade stance, sources close to the summit negotiations suggest that any final statement from the BRICS group will avoid mentioning the United States or its president by name.

Instead, it will likely issue a broader political message aimed at Washington.

“We’re anticipating a summit with a cautious tone. It will be difficult to mention the United States by name in the final declaration,” said Marta Fernandez, director of the BRICS Policy Centre at Rio’s Pontifical Catholic University.

The diplomatic situation is especially sensitive for China, which has only recently negotiated with the U.S. to lower tariffs in a tit-for-tat trade dispute. Fernandez pointed out that this was “not the right time to provoke further friction” between the world’s two largest economies.

Absence of Key Leaders Limits Political Impact

Conceived as a forum for fast-growing economies, BRICS has increasingly been viewed as a counterbalance to Western influence, particularly driven by China’s leadership. However, the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will skip the summit for the first time in his 12 years as president, diminishes the political weight of the gathering.

“I expect there will be speculation about the reasons for Xi’s absence,” said Ryan Hass, a former China director at the U.S. National Security Council and now with the Brookings Institution.

“The simplest explanation may hold the most explanatory power. Xi recently hosted Lula in Beijing,” Hass added.

Xi will be replaced by Premier Li Qiang, a decision that analysts believe is influenced by the dynamics between Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will be a guest of honour at the summit.

Some speculate that Xi did not want to be overshadowed by Modi’s prominent role.

Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin is choosing not to attend in person but will join the summit via video link, amid ongoing tensions related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

While trade issues dominate the summit’s agenda, divisions remain over how the BRICS group should respond to the volatile conflicts in the Middle East. In particular, disagreements have arisen concerning the ongoing wars in Gaza and the conflict between Iran and Israel.

Iranian negotiators are pushing for a tougher stance from the group, advocating for more than just a call for a Palestinian state and peaceful resolution of disputes. However, consensus on this issue remains elusive among the BRICS nations.

Expanding Membership and Growing Challenges

BRICS has evolved over the years, growing from its original members, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, to include South Africa and, more recently, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia.

While this expansion has bolstered the group’s international influence, it has also introduced new fault lines, making it harder to achieve unanimous agreement on sensitive issues.

Despite these challenges, Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira expressed hope that the group could find common ground on the Middle East and other key issues.

“BRICS countries, throughout their history, have managed to speak with one voice on major international issues, and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t be the case this time on the subject of the Middle East,” Vieira stated.

As the summit progresses, it remains to be seen whether BRICS can navigate its internal divisions and present a unified front on the pressing global challenges it faces.