VISION 2010 REPORT
1. Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa and the 11th in the world. She is endowed with vast human and natural resources, including oil and gas. Yet after 37 years of independence, Nigerians are unanimous in their conviction that the economic and political performance of their nation is far below her potential, and their own expectations and aspirations. The conviction that the country's poor economic and political performance is neither representative of her potential nor in consonance with the aspirations of her citizens, and their determination that their nation should occupy her rightful place in the comity of nations led the President and Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to set up the VISION 2010 committee on 27th November, 1996.
2. The Committee comprised 248 members, including 25 foreign stakeholders resident in Nigeria. The Committee's mandate, set out in a 14-item Terms of Reference, required it to develop a blueprint that will transform the country and place it firmly on the route to becoming a developed nation by the year 2010.
3. The committe worked for 10 months using the following methodology
4. The Committe organised its works under 53 sub-committees and 8 clusters of sub-committes, cover 13 critical success factors, 17 economic issues, 17 special issues and 6 general issues. Arising from the results of this process, the committee concluded that by 2010 Nigeria would have transformed into a country which is:
"A united, industrious, caring and God-fearing democratic society, committed to making the basic needs of life affordable for everyone, and creating Africa's leading economy."
5. The achievement of this Vision calls for paradigm shift in the mindset of all Nigerians to imbibe new core values, norms and standards that would align with the requirements of the global realities, rapid technological change, globalisation and liberalisation. It also requires a change in the things the nation does henceforth and how she does them.
6. The salient findings of the Committee, report under various areas and issues on which Nigeria should focus in order to attain this vision, are Education, Health, Industry, Petroleum, solid Minerals, Agriculture, Infrastructure, Poverty Alleviation, Rural and Urban Development, Unemployment, small and Medium-scale Enterprises, Public and Private Sector Partnership, Stable Policy Environment, Law and Order, Anti-Corruption, Good Governance, External Image and Capital Mobilisation, among others.
7. Over the Vision period, the successful management of the above areas and issues depends on a proper appreciation of "where We Are," "Where We Want To Be" and "How To Get There" in respect of each, as follows:
8. Nigeria is a multi-ethnic society, with a value system that derives from the diversity of its people and their different behaviour, religions and cultures. The elements of this value system include respect for elders, honesty and accountability, cooperation, industry, discipline, self confidence and moral courage. Over the years, however, such value system has weakened.
9. By the year 2010, it is envisaged that the Nigerian people will re-discover themselves and revert to being God-conscious and God-fearing, caring, sincere, honest, accountable in their dealing with public trust, and proud of their country and heritage.
10. The military has ruled Nigeria almost continously for 27 out of 37 years since the country's independence in 1960. A political transition programme is in place and the Nigerian people eargerly await a return to democratic rule.
11. By the year 2010, it is envisage that Nigeria would have a stable democracy within a full-fledge federal system, characterised by comprehensive freedom for the citizens, rule of law, openness, accountability, and orderly and predictable changes of government.
12. To achieve this Vision objective, the ongoing political transition programme should be faithfully implemented, resulting in a democratically elected government in 1998, with the military reverting fully to its professional and constitutional roles and functions.
13. After about a decade of depression, the economy had begun to show signs of recovery at the time the committee was inaugurated late in 1996. After falling to less than 2 per cent per annum in 1994, the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 3.3 per cent in 1996. Inflation had also declined to about 30 per cent. The balance of payments deficit had declined significantly to less than $800 million, whilst external reserves had risen to about $4 billion.
14. However, the structure of the economy remains unchanged. The economy is still monocultural, the primary product now being crude oil (instead of agricultural produce as it was in the 60s and 70s). Production activities are still highly dependent on imports, as imported consumer goods as a proportion of total imports remain high at over 30 per cent. Oil accounts for about 95 per cent of the nation's total export earnings. Inter-sectoral linkages remains weak and unemployment remains high, rising and problematic.
15. During the Vision period, it is envisaged that the GDP growth rate will average about 10 per cent per annum and that a less than 5 per cent rate of inflation will prevail as from the later years of the Vision period. By 2010, the exchange rate of the Naira would have improved tremendously, whilst the Naira would have become a convertible currency. Manufacturing would be accounting for about 24 per cent of the GDP, whilst the relative contribution of oil to the GDP would have declined to less than 20 per cent. Finally, the per capita income would have risen to about $1,600. In summary, by 2010, Nigeria would have returned to the rank of middle income countries.
16. In order to attain the Vision targets, the private sector should become a lot more active, within a market-oriented, highly competitive, broad-based, private sector-driven development process. Consequently, privatisation, liberalisation and rapid technological advancement should be among the critical elements of Nigeria's economic development strategy during the Vision period.
17. In 1996, only about 50 per cent of children between the ages of 5 and 24 years were enrolled in primary, secondary and tertiary educational institutions, with the enrolment ratio being highest at 88 per cent for primary school children. By the year 2010, primary school enrolment should be almost 100 per cent and at least 26 per cent of government budget (at federal, state and local levels) should be devoted to education.
18. Nigeria's annual population growth rate of about 2.8 per cent over the past decade outstrips the average annual GDP growth rate of about 1.6 per cent. Also, about 45 per cent of the population are youths below the age of 15 years. All these contribute to a significant decline in the standard of living of the majority of the population. By the year 2010, the country's population growth rate should have declined to not more than 2 per cent per annum. Faster economic growth rate and development, the education of girls up to the age of 18 years and effective family planning schemes are some of the major strategies for achieving a significant reduction in the population growth rate over the vision period.
19. Less than 5 per cent of the federal budget was allocated to health services annually for the past decade. Health facilities are inadequate and also poorly maintained. Nigeria has a life expectancy of 52 years (1993), compared with 62 years for developing countries. Infact and maternal mortality rates of 84 per 1,000 and 800 per 100,00 live births respectively are high, compared with average rates of 70 per 1,000 and 384 per 100,000 respectively, for developing countries. During the Vision period, preventive health-care services should receive more emphasis. Adequate funding should be provided to restructure and upgrade primary, secondary and tertiary health care facilities in line with international standards.
20. Agriculture now offers employment to over 65 per cent of the working population; accounts for over 70 per cent of non-oil exports and contributes about 30 per cent of the GDP.
21. In spite of massive government investment in the sector and related programmes over the years in the form of input subsidies to the River Basin Development Authorities, Agricultural Development Projects (ADPs), Green Revolution, Operation Feed the Nation, DFFRI, among others, the sector remains dominated by small-holder peasant farmers, who are dependent on nature, are barely exposed to modern technology and lack storage and preservation facilities. It is clear that government interventions have been ineffective, due largely to corruption and diversion of resources meant for the sector.
22. It is Vision's objective to achive a substaintial turnaround in agriculture in order to achieve food security, produce raw materials for industry and raise the level of foreign exchange earnings. Government intervention has to be more selective, better-focused and closely monitored, while an appropriate enabling environment is crucial to attracting private capital to medium and large-scale farming. Support in the form of provisin of appropriate infrastructure and agricultural extension services is also essential to the realisation of this objcetive.
23. The contribution of manufacturing to the GDP, which has been declining over the years, reached a level of only about 6 per cent in 1996. The sector's utilisation of local raw materials is only about 55 per cent of total industrial input. Linkages between manufacturing and other sectors remain weak and manufacturing contributes only about 0.5 per cent of Nigerian's export earrings.
24. By the year 2010, manufacturing should contribute about 24 per cent to the GDP and should be a major employer of labour. To achieve this goal, a competitive, market-oriented and private sector-driven strategy, backed by very generous incentives and adequate infrastructure is required.
25. Upstream: Nigeria currently produces about 2.2 millions barrels of oil per day, including condensates. This sub-sector still accounts for about 95 per cent of the total export earnings and about 80 per cent of Federal Government revenues. The country's vast gas resources remain virtually unexploited and more than 90 per cent of associated gas is being flared. Progress in the sub-sector is being stalled by inadequate funding, mistrust and loss of confidence between the Government and the joint venture operators. Other problems are incessant clashes with inhabitants of oil producing areas on account of environmental degradation and loss of means of livelihood caused by oil exploration activities. Furthermore, the sub-sector remains an enclave activity with little linkage with the rest of the economy.
26. By 2010, Nigeria's proven oil reserves should be about 40 billion barrels from the present level of about 22 billion barrels and daily crude output should have risen to about 4 million barrels per day.
27. During the Vision period, oil and gas will be developed fully to provide the launching pad for the development of the rest of the economy. Joint venture obligations should be fully and promptly met under a more transparent environment in which investor confidence is restored.
28. Community-related disruptions of operations will be curtailed by making each community a stakeholder in the operation of the sub-sector. Greater indigenous participation in the oil sub-sector as well as exploration should be encouraged.
29. Downstream: Nigeria has invested substantially in four refineries (with a total of 445,000 barrels per day capacity), pipelines, petrochemicals and fertilizer plants. The sub-sector is in a state of decay due to poor operating conditions, inadequate funding, vandalisation and bureaucratic interventions. The sub-sector is dominated by the government. For example, crude allocation is done by the government which also fixed processing fees and product prices. Operators have little room to manouevre as commercial undertakings. There is also a significant level of smuggling. The current importation of petroleum products by Nigeria is clear evidence of the poor state of this sub-sector.
30. By 2010, Nigeria's downstream oil activities should have become a significant earner of foreign exchange and a supplier of a wide range of raw materials to local industries.
31. During the Vision period, the sub-sector should be liberated and deregulated, and incentives provided to attract private sector investment to refineries, gas and product distribution.
32. Despite the country's considerable endowment with varied solid mineral resources, the contribution of this sector to the nation's GDP remains very low. The country imports such minerals as salt and iron ore which can be exploited commercially in Nigeria. The sector faces problems such as absence of policy framework and lack of infrastructure.
33. By the year 2010, these problems would have been substantially addresses to make the sector an important source of non-oil foreign exchange earnings for the country.
34. Currently, more than 50 per cent of Nigerias are poor. The legal minimum wage of N250 per month and the minimum pay of N1,250 per month in the public service, are far below the N3,920 per month required by an individual Nigerian for minimum sustenance. A family of five would also requires N13,462 per month, just to live above the poverty line.
35. By the year 2010,not more than 20 per cent of the population should be categorised as poor. To achieve this, Nigeria's annual GDP growth rate over the the Vision period should be at least 7 per cent, whilst the population growth rate should not exceed 2 per cent per annum. In addition, there should be effective and massive investments in education, health, housing, water supply, transportation, electricity and micro-credit.
36. Nigeria is largerly a rural country, with 62 per cent of her population living in the rural areas. But the quality of life is very poor amongs this large population, due mainly to extremely inadequate infrastructure, lack of employment opportunities and social amenities. Health care is poor, and this is compounded by the lack of access to portable water. Educational facilities are insufficient and dilapidated, access to land for agriculture is limited and, where available, productivity is low due to poor technology and lack of input, road network, communication facilities and markets are poorly developed. These account for the continuing poor quality of life in the rural areas in spite of an array of government programmes aimed at rural development.
37. By the year 2010, the rural people in Nigeria should enjoy a higher standard of living. Health facilities and potable water shall be available at the prescribed minimum standard. Every child of school age in the rural areas shall be in school; agricultureal production is improved and the rural family shall earn enough to afford the basic necessities of life, thereby reducing rural - urban migration. The land tenure shall be reformed to give every family access to land for habitation and economic production. Government shall invest a substantial proportion of its budget in rural development so that the rural areas produce enough not only for local consumption and export but also to supply raw materials to local industries.
38. Thirthy eight per cent of Nigeria's population is urban. Although urbanisation is a global phenomenon, Nigeria's urban growth rate of 5-7 per cent makes it one of the most rapidly urbanising countries in the world. By present trends, the proportion of urban population is estimated to reach over 50 per cent by the year 2010. This very rapid rate of growth has overwhelmed the capacity of urban management agencies, and compounded by cumbersome land allocation system, inappropriate planning techniques, and low resource allocation for provision and maintenance of infrastructure, urban centres in Nigeria have become chaotic. Government's effort at managing urban centres so far appear inadequate.
39. During the Vision period, Nigeria should attain a controlled and manageable urban growth, and an improved urban economy to support poverty alleviation and creat employment. To achieve this, the Nigeria Urban & Regional Planning Commission should be established in line with the provision of Decree 88 of 1990.
40. Unemployment has reached a very alarming proportion in Nigeria, with a greater number of the unemployed being primary and secondary school leavers and university graduates. This situationhas recently been compounded by the increasing unemployment of professionals such as bankers, engineers and doctors. Thus, the unemployment toll is within the productive segment of the Nigerian population.
41. Nigeria should have attained virtual full employment of all able-bodied persons by the year 2010.
42. SMEs are spread all over the formal and informal sectors in urban and rural areas of the economy. They provide employment to about 80 per cent of the Nigerian Labour Force and constitute a veritable avenue for ensuring balanced and reasonable economic development inspite of numerous incentives and support from government and other agencies, their level of capacity utilisation currently stands at less than 50 per cent.
43. During the vision period, conscious efforts must be made to enable SMEs to overcome their financial, managerial and technological problems by encouraging substantial private sector investment and the attainment of not less than 90 per cent capacity utilisation rate.
44. Since independence, most development efforts have been spearheaded by the public sector. There have been about four development plans, all of which were mostly public sector investment plans with limited private sector involvement either in articulation or execution.
45. This limited private sector participation has been partly as a result of lack of co-operation between the two sectors. The private sector is handicapped by the conflicting interests amongst its organised members, while the unorganised private sector is oftem too weak to take advantage of useful policy initiatives of the government.
46. By the year 2010, Nigeria should reduce the dominance of the public sector in the economy and develop a viable, dynamic, highly motivated, socially and environmentally responsible private sector. A strong public and private sector partnership should be encouraged in order to foster a strong economy that is private sector-driven with the government as an enabler.
47. To attain this goal, Nigeria should liberalise her economy, strenthen existing incentives to the private sector, continue the privatisation initiative, encourage regular dialogue between the public and private sectors, and strengthen the informal sector to respond more positively to policy initiatives. In addition, the public sector needs to be re-structured and adequately motivated to make it fully alive to its responsibility of providing the necessary enabling environment, especially in the area of support services.
48. Infrastructure such as power, telecommunications, transportation and water supply are basically inadequate in terms of geographic spread, quality and efficiency. Most of the facilities are dilapidate, obsolete, unreliable and ineffective. The state of disrepair of most of these facilities is a reflection of a poor maintenance culture. The overall outcome is high cost of goods and services as industrialists often pass on the high of transportation and power supply, among other costs to the consumers.
49. A major challenge of the Vision is to make the basic needs of life available and affordable to all Nigerias. Government would, therefore, need to restructure her expenditure patterns and move away from direct involvement in the production of goods to the provision of adequate infrastructure. This would also require private sector partnership.
50. The persistent determination in the quality of government since independence has led to political instability and the weakning of societal institutions. Global trends suggest that the objectives of the Vision may not be realised unless and until a significant improvement in the quality of governance is attained. A speedy transition to a truly democratic and market friendly polity is, therfore, of utmost priority if the Vision aspirations are to be realised. So also is the need to promote a culture of role modelling.
51. Nigeria has a growing capital market capitalised at aproxiamely $3.5 billion as at December 1996. The market is, however, largerly illiquid and has not been a major source of capital for the indigenous private sector and municipalities, although there are windows for such funds
52. By the year 2010, Nigeria should have a modern capital formation not only for the multinational but also for the country's indigenous businesses, municipalities and for the funding of infrastructure. To achiev this Nigeria should reform, modernised and internationalise the capital market to enhance its breadth, depth and liquidity and make it an engine of growth for the country.
53. The banking and finance sector is plague by a host of institutional, operational and legal difficulties. Key among these problems are asset liability mistmatch, capital inadqaucy, fraud and poor management. These problems contributed to the emergence of the lingering distress syndrome, which should be speedily resolved, if the sector is to perform its role during the Vision period.
54. The pension system must also be reformed to provide improved retirement benefits to retirees and mobilise long-term funds to finance the envisaged increase in capital formation.
55. The youth (between 12 and 30 years) currently constitute 60 per cent of the Nigerian population. Over the years they have contributed significantly to national development in many areas, such as sports, community development, arts and culture. Unfortunately, a significant proportion of the youth is now involved in many criminal activities as a result of poor education , inadequate facilities in schools and technical colleges, moral decadence, inadequate parental care, lack of appropriate role models, breakdown of family values, high unemployment and poor national orientation.
56. During the Vision periods, the positive contribution of Nigerian youths to national development should be significantly enhanced, particularly in the area of sports by the completion and implementation of the sports master plan.
57. The policy process in Nigeria has been characterised by poor conception, unclear direction, inconsistencies and poor implementation. Fiscal operations have been marred by a relatively high rate, narrow tax base and high rate of tax evasion. However, the overall budget balance has been improving in recent years. During the vision period, the government should continue to improve and maintain these gains by increasing the efficiency and transparency of its operations and upholding the practice of true federalism.
58. With regards to monetary policy, the country's performance has been hampered by bloated central banking function, government interference and unfavourable economic environment. To enhance the efficiency of the financial system and send the right signals to the financial community over the vision period, the Central Bank of Nigeria should be immediately reorganised and granted autonomy in its core functions.
59. The information system in Nigeria today comprises the Federal Office of Statistics, the National Library of Nigeria and the National Data Bank, complemented by a myriad of other public and private sector institutional information departments.
60. In order to meet the challenges of the Vision and the new millenium, Nigeria needs to upgrade existing information and data services outfits into modern and high technology services providers, network into a single online, real-time entity for national development.
61. This calls for review of the National Information Policy, the enactment of appropriate legislation, massive cut-over into information technology, national development in many areas, such as sports, community development, arts and culture. Unfortunately, a significant proportion of the youth is now involved in many criminals activitiesas a result of poor education, inadequate facilities in schools and technical colleges, moral decadence, inadequate parental care, lack of appropriate role model, breakdown of family values, high unemployment and poor national orientation conductivity to the World Wide Web ( the internet) and the setting up of national internet and intranet facilities. All personnel engaged by institution in the new information system must be computer literate, well motivated and compensated. Nigeria must not be left behind in the information revolution now sweeping through the world.
62. Science, Engineering and technology are crucial for any agricultural, industrial or technology take-off in the modern era. A sound basic education in the sciences and technology is a prerequiste. Such education will become progressively essential for living in the 21st Century. The emphasis of the country should, therefore, be on:
63. The achievement of the above requires accelerated development of industrial clusters in various parts of the country. This, in turn calls for the rehabilitation of laboratories in polytechnics and universities; the enhancement of research and development (R&D) in public and private sector activities and the upgrading of facilities in technical, vocational and secondary schools.
64. The effective maintenance of law and order is a critical success factor in the realisation of the vision. Currently, there are serious problems with Nigeria's law making, law enforcement and judicial systems. These hamper the nation's ability to protect life and property and ensure the liberty of the citizens adequately.
65. There is a need to build on the positive element of the present legal and judicial systems in order to translate the vision into reality. During the vision period, there should be an end to retroactive and ad hominem legislation. Also, there should be a regular review of the country's laws while the bills and laws passed should be given wide publicity. A special rehabilitation programme for the Nigeria Police Force should be urgently designed and implemented. The judiciary should be radically reformed, better funded and equiped. The Law Reform Commission should be strenthened.
66. Although corruption is a world-wide phenomenon, its level in Nigeria has negatively impacted on the country's development. Corruption appears to have become a way of doing things, though it is resented by significant number of people who are helpless in the face of weak and selective application of sanctions.
67. Although, the year 2010, Nigeria should be a corruption-free society. The achievements of this objective, however, will require imagination, dedication, resourcefulness, courage and discipline of all Nigerians to fight the menace.
68. From its origin in the middle of the 19th Century to the present, the Nigerian media has had a tradition of being outspoken. Early nationalists like Herbert macaulay and Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe owned and used newspapers successfully to mobilise Nigerians against colonial rule. After independence, the media continued to play the role of being the nation's watchdog inspite of several legal, social and infrastructural constraints.
69. Recently, however, ther have been moves to curtail free speech and the freedom of the press because of concern that the abuse of this freedom is becoming widespread. Valid as some of these concerns are, the temptation to further restrain the medai should be avoided if the media is to continue to play its role as the nation's watchdog and promote the attainment of the targets of the Vision. The prospects are for private sector-dominated media, the owners and practitioners of which shall publish freely but shall do so with due regards for the national interest, accuracy, fairness and balance.
70. The productivity of a country partly depends on the harmonious relationships among government, employers and workers and these are largely determined by labour policies. Nigeria's labour policies and practices are characterised by government interference in trade union matters, unnecessary arbitration and inadequate enforcement of occupational, health and safety laws. These contravene International Labour Organisation (ILO) conventions ratified by government, weaken collective bargaining, and discourage genuine mediation and concilliation in conflict resolution. In a situation of very poor and deressed reward system, the above development may have encouraged rampant industrial strikes.
71. In pursuance of the economic and democratic aspirationof the country, Nigeria must have labour polices that encourage and strengthen independent, democratic, transparent and accountable trade unions. Trade union laws should also be fair, balanced and consistent with ratified ILO conventions. In addition, effective labour administration and free collective bargaining should be the main determinants of terms and conditions of employment to ensure sustainable industrial peace and equitable reward systems.
72. Nigeria must achieve excellent labour management and industrial relations that would promote industrial harmony, tripartism, motivaion and commitment to work and productivity.
73. It is generally recognised that all is not well with Nigeria's external image. Particularly, the deterioration in the domestic economic, political and socio-cultural situation since the 80's, coincided with the loss of prestige in the international community. However, there are positive elements on which to build.
74. During the Vision period, Nigeria should again, become a respected member of the international community. For this purpose, the country must restore democracy, build a strong economic base, ensure social harmony at home and promote domestic and international tourism. It is also imperative to maintain good relations with all nations and by appropriate actions, demonstrate an effective leadership in African.
75. Women constitute about a half of Nigeria's human resources but due to some agelong norms and traditions, their role as agents and beneficiaries of national development has been limited. On the average, women have greater health problems than men, have limited access to education,credit and technology, and are encumbered b y harmful traditional practices.
76. By the year 2010, women should have been fully integrated into the national development, and a girl should also have as much opportunity for self-fulfillment as a boy.
77. Female literacy rate should have increased from 48 per cent to 88 per cent and women should have become economically self-reliant and active participants in all decision-making bodies.
78. Aggregate Federal Government investment in public enterprises was about N100 billion in 1996, with an average annual rate of return of only about 2 per cent.
79. By the year 2010, the size of Nigeria's public enterprise should have been drastically reduced. To attain this goal, public enterprises should, in the short term, be exposed to competition by allowing private enterprises to compete with them, in preparation for substantial and far-reaching privatisation in the short to medium term.
80. Overall, Nigeria's development process during their Vision Period should be people centred, broad-based, self-reliant, market-oriented, highly competitive and private sector-driven with the government as the proactive enabler. At all times, the well-being of all the people should be the overriding purpose of governance and the economy
81. The role played in Africa and the global scene be a direct result of creating a Nigerian success story. By good governance, effective management of the economy, and actively promoting productive co-operation with her African neighbours, Nigeria will earn respect on the global scene.
82. Several issues require urgent and special attention in order to strengthen the environment for the effective attainment of the Vision targets. These special areas inclide the Judiciary, Police, Armed Forces and Traditional Rulers.
83. Implementation is critical to the success of the Vision, especially in the face of public cynicism about government's commitment to the implementation of public policies. It is therefore essential for the government to ensure faithful implementation of the vision, in order to secure the confidence and elicit the support of all other stakeholders. Furthermore, the burden of smooth transition to a private sector-led economic system falls on the government.
84. Implementation must start immediately. In this regard,
the institution which will ensure the implementation of the
Vision should be established with 90 days. These institution are:
85. To ensure a national commitment to the Vision, the NCNV should be included in the schedule of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Measures which will signal fundamentals shifts in Nigeria's future direction should also be introduced. These are enumerated in chaoter 7 of the main report. Such actions will engender visible results and elicit support from all stakeholders. Annual Budgets, starting with the 1998 budget, should likewise demonstrate commitment to the Vision objective of sustainable and accelerated economic growth.
86. Sequencing of implementation is necessary because of funding and other constraints. the Action Plan in the Main report is, therefore structured as follows:
87. For the successful take-off of the Vision, it is proposed that within 90 days of receipt of the report, Government should take the following actions as an evidence of commitment to the Vision and manifestation of a fundamental change indirection: