PETERSIDE ECONOMIC REVIEW

Chamberlain S. Peterside, Ph.DSunday, November 9, 2008
[email protected]
New York, NY, USA

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NOW THAT THE DIE IS CAST
…WHAT DOES THE FUTURE PORTEND WITH OBAMA?

…Epochal Moment

he world continues to be enthralled by the election of the first black President in America – Mr. Barack Obama. The significance of his victory is multifarious and long in process. Obama did not only succeed where other black presidential candidates failed, but trounced his opponent by a huge margin of electoral and popular votes, thereby reaffirming that this mandate wasn’t by dint of chance, but hard-won.


Nigerians celebrate U.S. President-elect Senator Barack Obama's (D-IL) historic White House victory in Lagos November 5, 2008.
REUTERS/Akintunde Akinleye


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Many people will agree that this resounding success might not have been possible without the outpouring of support by majority white electorates combined with the trust other racial groups conferred on him - if only Rev Martin Luther King was alive to experience the actualization of his famous (I have a dream) speech.

Yes a confluence of factors others might say worked in Obama’s favor. But that shouldn’t minimize his ability underscored in the eloquence, wits and mastery of his campaign agenda. This all conspired to get him across the finish line ahead of John McCain, (a decorated war hero who wasn’t necessarily a work-over).

As we savor this victory, lets pause for a moment to reflect on what the future holds for US society, the economy and global community at large. No question that Obama faces tremendous challenges, what for two wars (Iraq and Afghanistan), an economy in a flux and mounting national debt estimated at $11 trillion. To be sure, solid ideas and solutions have already been propounded and clearly enunciated in Obama’s campaign theme, but how soon that will pan out or how it will be paid for remains to be seen.

…New Inspiration
Clearly, rise of a black man to the highest office in the land in a multi-racial society like US is indeed a step toward building that proverbial “great society” that Martin Luther King Jr. dreamt about. Essentially, US has set a new example of advancing beyond racial prejudice, offering justice, equality and opportunities for all, this will systematically be emulated and over time permeate other societies for sure.

For one, this particular election truly shatters the erroneous notion of intellectual inferiority of the black or other races to Whites that has falsely been propagated by racist bigots overtime. Thereby providing policy and philosophical anchor for emergence of organizations and system of governance like apartheid in South Africa that was inimical to social progress.

Few years ago, a Nobel Prize winning scientist Dr James Watson even ventured to state that black people are less intelligent than whites, without offering a shred of scientific evidence. Some others have wrongfully tried to use the current plight of African countries or inability of some African Americans to do better in midst of affluence in this country, to buttress falsehood and lay credence to this flawed and racist precepts.

Well, we can now at least find solace in the fact that amongst other strides by black people, Obama achieved this feat not because he is black, but through shere determination and intellectual prowess and if he came this far, then there’s nothing inherently wrong with the average African brain, which he symbolizes, rather Africa (like every developing society) is plagued by poor leadership and inefficient system of organizing its governance and production processes, a reflection of not the biological constituent or structure of their brain, but the application of brain functions in real life.

If this hypothesis were to hold true and be widely imbibed, then this momentous event could mark a pivotal turning point in the annals of the black race and black population in America. Harbor no illusions, does this necessarily mean that all the problems of Africa, black and disadvantaged people around the world will dissolve overnight? Far from it, simply put, there could be an impetus to strive harder and unleash their God-given abilities to reach higher.

This election will bring hope and pride not only to black people, but also other racial and ethnic minorities as well as women in this country and around the world. Look at most countries and you will find minority population groups everywhere, that are downtrodden; from the low-cast people in India to Tibetans in China, colored people in Brazil’s Favelas (Shantytowns), Aborigines in Australia, native Indians in Southern and Central American countries etc.

These groups of people for the most part have always come up short in governance and economic opportunities. Their access to political power or means of livelihood have often been restricted not merely by their numerical strength, but also due to entrenched believe that they are not up to par or status-quo that is stacked against them – all that will continue to change. Will President Obama be an unsung role model to these people? – You bet. This singular experience could provide hope that if they work hard, then maybe someday they or their off-springs could also aspire higher in any facet of endeavor they choose to pursue in their societies.

…Looking Back in History
History is replete with lessons of how struggle for justice, freedom and equality were fanned by events in far-flung lands but yielded lasting impact in other places. African nationalists for instance were emboldened in their quest for political independence in mid 20th century (1930s/1940s) by the experience of the Second World War, when some of the would-be political leaders fought side-by-side with white soldiers and realized that “Whites are also human”. These early nationalists returned home to start agitating for self-rule, culminating in widespread independence for majority of African countries in 1960.

The story is often told of how Martin Luther King Jr. himself got much of his inspiration for non-violent change from Mahatma Gandhi (1869-1948) after visiting India in February 1959. That deep introspection served as launch-pad for what would become a formidable mass movement within US in 1960s, resulting in the civil rights bill and 40 years later, gave birth to the first black president – Barack Obama. According to some pundits, this truly marks a belated entry of the US into the 21st century – who would argue with that? How far this takes us, and what other transformation that will emanate from this, is unimaginable.

…Impact on Global Community
In the international front, US reputation will enter a period of unprecedented goodwill, albeit short-lived, - if Obama fails to live up to expectation in his avowed mission to engage in dialogue with both US allies and adversaries alike. By virtue of his background, Obama somewhat epitomizes a true global citizen – born in Hawaii (US) of American and African parentage, raised in Indonesia and now back to the US as president and commander-in-chief.

You couldn’t have bargained for a more qualified character to play this role at this phase in history - if this was a movie. That aside, Obama has shown through his utterances, judgment and poise that the world is his domain unlike most US presidential candidates who step up to the world-stage only after being elected.

This attribute, coupled with the ability to inspire confidence and surround himself with seasoned and experienced statesmen at home can translate into remarkable gains for US internationally, which the new administration could then capitalize upon to help fend-off terrorist threats, while rebuilding lost military might and geopolitical influence.

The dividend of re-focused US foreign policy will transcend domestic security and politics, it will spill over to economic space, were the world is yearning for US leadership in addressing current global financial meltdown. Recent reports in foreign press indicate that most countries hold US financial practitioners responsible for the current debacle. After all, most of the exotic financial instruments created and distributed around the world, have roots in US financial houses, little surprise why US companies have been hardest hit.

Therefore to exit such a seeming intractable demise requires US proactive approach and intellectual promise that it has shown in other spheres of industry. The centerpiece of such action will be an Obama administration through the Federal Reserve Bank and new Treasury Secretary working in close collaboration.

The challenges in the economic arena are enormous but not impossible to tackle with time. The underlying driver of markets is consumer and investor-sentiments. This is reflected in the continued downward spiral despite the $750 billion bailout package. The intrinsic message from the market seem to be that either the inherent damage hasn’t been sufficiently priced-in and shaken-off, or there is total loss of confidence in the current crop of leadership, nay Bush administration and its ability to sort out the mess.

This is where President Obama comes in; recalibrated effort by a new and trusted team, with Obama at the helm could energize the market in the short-run. But beyond that, the new administration must not only overhaul the regulatory framework at home but also work in lock-steps with major countries, this time not ignoring the rising powers such as BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, China and India) to chart a new course for the global economy and financial system.

Given the crop of able lieutenants, (some already well-known and tested from previous administrations) at the disposal of Obama, it might be possible to deploy them in reinvigorating the economy and engender tranquility, without wreaking more havoc to already fragile global markets.

…Unequivocal Mandate
An administration such as Obama’s that has an overwhelming and clear mandate, reflected in the election results (historical high turn-out, huge electoral and popular vote advantage) coupled with control of both the legislative and executive arms of government in the face of such reservoir of international goodwill, should work hard to push through bottom-up pro-mainstream agenda and bring about “change” that is espoused, with bi-partisan support, while ensuring that the policies benefit majority of the populace.

A successful effort in addressing domestic and international problems by Obama will indeed result in renewed confidence. Overall that could mean a period of hope and believe in power of diplomacy, dialogue and mutual trust, no matter how short-lived, (assuming any unforeseen event occur). The benefit of that, especially for the international community is that through dialogue rather than unilateral action, the world is more likely to become sane, safer and socio-economically progressive.

If you doubt me, imagine for a minute why there hasn’t been a third world war. If the strategy of retrain and dialogue wasn’t applied, a near-miss event like the Bay of Pigs/Cuban Missile Crisis in early 1960s under President Kennedy and Prime Minister Khrushchev in US and Soviet Union respectively, could have resulted in untold catastrophe. Think also for a moment what would have happened if Reagan refused to meet and dialogue with Mr. Gorbatchov throughout the 1980s during the cold war era, at a time when there were over 50,000 nuclear warheads.

So if administration of Obama can avoid these pitfalls and thread the right path he could leave a lasting legacy on humanity - already both foes and supporters are of the opinion that Obama has an opportunity of becoming a “great American president” – yes he can.

Chamberlain is a New York based financial professional and member of Rivers State Economic Advisory Council.

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