…50 years in the Making
ifty years is quite a long while in the life of any nation, especially measured by pace of global progress these days. The lame excuse that it took some countries in Western Europe and United States centuries to get things right on their path of economic development and democratic experiment is not good enough to justify why Nigeria should be in the current state.
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By hinging the root causes of backwardness in Nigeria on circumstances
beyond anyone’s control, or so-called “developmental process” we so
often divert attention from inherent problems plaguing the nation and
absolve leaders of major responsibility. Let the truth be told –
successive leaders whether military or civilian somehow got things
wrong in their effort to run Nigeria. Why and how not to repeat the
errors is what we should concern ourselves.
The overarching goal of vying for leadership position in any normal
society (and Nigeria shouldn’t be an exception) is principally to serve
and improve upon conditions of your fellow citizens. Nigeria’s
post-colonial experience has been far from ideal, whereby the express
purpose of most high office holders and aspirants is rather
self-gratification that rarely aligns with interest of larger society.
Some African elites are culpable in obviating the truth and often
deviating from the underlying reason for economic malaise in the
continent. Many continuously point accusing fingers at the colonial
powers alone, first for invading and annexing disparate sections of the
continent then entwining African economies to their apron strings and
Western European markets. In Nigeria for instance, some
economic-history books have vociferously argued that the railway system
was designed and built to run from the Southern axis (seaports) through
the Eastern and Western flanks to the Northern region, thereby
connecting principal sources of agricultural cash crops to export
terminals - but doesn’t that make sense given prevailing economic
circumstances and geo-political conditions at the time?
…What Have They Done Lately?
So 50 years later, we are yet to see marked improvement on the
narrow-gauge railway system or successful transformation and
diversification of the economy from raw materials export (whether
agricultural produce or crude oil/gas) to value-added manufacturing.
Based on my critical assessment, the new crop of leaders after
independence ought to have done far better job given tremendous
leverage at their disposal, underscored by substantial financial and
human/natural resource-base. The human factor was simply not adequately
harnessed as witnessed by inept political leaders that took charge and
failed to capitalize on opportunities.
Whether on the political front and/or especially in the economic arena,
the conditions on ground today speak volume of wrong moves each step of
the way. This wasn’t for lack of trying, but mostly occurred from
misguided efforts that now leave the economy prostrate, amidst a
populace that remain mired in abject poverty half a century after
colonialism.
During the period leading to and immediately after independence,
Nigerians were full of hope and aspiration for gaining self-rule, only
for reality to set in soon after. The country was characterized by
incessant political upheavals, which ushered in military rule by 1965
and bitter civil war in 1967-1970. Those events underscored the
voracious appetite for domination and resource-control and were initial
telltale signs of the failure by new national leaders to grapple with
unexpected complex socio-economic challenges that confronted the
country.
Prior to that, most of the existing infrastructure facilities were
carry-over from colonial times, including the beleaguered railway
system that was last extended in 1964; most major cities like Lagos,
Ibadan, Kano, Enugu, Port Harcourt, Kaduna, Calabar, Aba etc were
planned and built under the tutelage of colonial administrators; public
utilities in most urban areas were functional and efficient. All that
is necessary was to maintain, expand and modernize them to keep abreast
of time and growing population – that was never to be.
The public service systems at both the national and regional levels
were also mostly colonial legacies. The personnel were quite adept at
running existing modest infrastructure, thus delivering value to
society and helping sustain relatively better standard of living (well
into 1970s) – namely, access to primary healthcare services, primary
and secondary education, electric power supply (in mostly urban areas),
clean/portable water-supply, law courts and other social amenities. On
per capita basis, most Human Development Indicators (HDI) were more
favorable than in recent years.
…Collapse of the Great Groundnut Pyramids
That Nigeria was a major producer and exporter of agricultural produce
like Palm Oil, Cocoa-Beans, Groundnut etc is already well-known fact,
however the foundation for that wasn’t a result of the plans and sweat
of post-colonial leaders but was laid well before the country achieved
independence. The demise of famous groundnut pyramids in Kano was
mainly due to lack of continued support for this economic mainstay by
the new leaders in charge.
The practice of setting ambitious 5-year developing plans which started
in the 1960s was discontinued in late 1980s with little to write home
about. At the core of its failure was the inability to understand new
realities and craft then execute forward-looking policies that
reflected the changing times - building upon subtle progress already
achieved. Rather, grandiose white elephant projects were designed and
undertaken, if at all well executed. Ajeokuta Steel Plant for instance
was conceived during the 1960s but never completed until 1990s and
remains comatose.
…Pursuit of Ideology Rather than Reality
Essentially, development policies in most African countries, not
excluding Nigeria during the early post-colonial era was mostly shaped
by international events and bandwagon-effects with loud, autarkic and
ideological postulations like Socialist Orientation (best represented
by famous Ujamma ideology introduced by Julius Nyerere in Tanzania),
Protectionism and Economic Self-Reliance, Export Promotion/Import
Substitution Strategy, Indeginization Policy etc in a “New World
Economic Order”.
To what extent these concepts succeeded in transforming the economies
are anyone’s guess? It didn’t. At the forefront of such diverse policy
prescriptions were the World Bank/IMF with its notorious Structural
Adjustment Programs (SAP) and United Nations/African Economic
Commission with ideas that neither sufficiently spurred local
production nor successfully stimulated export of processed agricultural
produce.
Asian countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore
weren’t quite convinced and vehemently refused to buy these empty
slogans whole-hog. For the most part they relied upon home-bred
strategies and succeeded tremendously. Meanwhile Nigeria remains
largely import-dependent spending hard-earned oil revenue on
importation of food and all manners of basic consumer products.
At issue wasn’t just the content of the ideas or policy formulation per
se, but the people espousing and executing the ideas. If there were
some bright spots in the post-civil war years in Nigeria, it would be
the planning and construction of network of new federal roads. During
the oil boom years, Lagos was massively rebuilt and modernized just as
Abuja the new capital city was conceived and built. New seaports,
several airports, numerous educational institutions and health care
facilities were built across the length and breadth of Nigeria. The
resultant external debt from the jumbo loans became a serious financial
burden that couldn’t be resolved until 2005.
Reform policy history of Nigeria will be incomplete without special
attention to the external debt-deal struck with the Paris Club of
creditors in 2005. This paved the way for eliminating huge debt-stock
accumulated throughout the 1970s/1980s amounting to over $35 billion at
its peak in 2004. Coupled with this debt repayment strategy was the
sudden and unprecedented accumulation of foreign reserves that
currently stands at over $32 billion.
This twin measures combined can be considered the most remarkable
economic achievements in Nigeria’s recent history. The fiscal stability
occasioned by low to zero external debt-service payments and financial
war-chest built to protect the local currency and fund at least 22
months of import-bill is one of the highest amongst any country in the
world today. It can usually provide breathing space and conducive
atmosphere to attract additional foreign investments for expanding the
local economy – but we are yet to see that happen in a significant way.
…Sustaining the Tempo
Ordinarily by building the network of infrastructural backbone and
engendering fiscal prudence it is expected that multiplier effect on
the economy can be generated to systematically catalyze productivity.
Not surprising that Nigeria posted some of the most impressive growth
rates in the world during the mid to late 1970s and again during the
period from 2003 to 2009. While public sector remained at the
commanding heights of the economy through most of the post-colonial
era, there was a sudden realization of the drain public enterprises was
exerting on the nation’s coffers, which gave the impetus for massive
privatization and commercialization of these enterprises during the mid
to late 1990s and early 2000.
Whereas the least performing public entities like power holding company
(NEPA/PHCN) and former telecom monopoly (NITEL) have remained a thorn
in the flesh, they consistently were unable to deliver desired
service-quality and value to consumers despite gulping colossal sums of
money. Not until the deregulation and auctioning of mobile phone/GSM
licenses in 2002 did Nigeria experience exponential growth in the
telecommunication sector that has now truly energized business
activities thereby pushing growth rate to unusual highs in recent years.
Deregulation and recapitalization in the banking sector between late
1980s to mid 2005 saw a rapid growth then sudden decline in number of
banks with attendant spike in their capital structure. Even in the face
of such changes and bulking up of banks, long-term lending to real and
productive sectors like manufacturing, small and medium enterprises,
agriculture and mass housing remains an aberration rather than the
rule, which might partly explain the failure of protracted government
effort to make serious dent on unemployment, poverty alleviation and
improvement of living-standard for most citizens. But as government
spending spree and reform effort lasted, some of the most neglected
aspects of national development were electricity generation capacity,
upgrade of national transmission grid and mode of transporting bulk
cargo through the railway network.
…The Lost Decades
Due to inadequate investments, colossal pilferage and wastage of
resources plus poor planning and declining fortunes from oil revenue,
Nigeria’s growth spurt reversed course after the later 1970s and have
never fully recovered. This period has become known as the lost decades.
The human factor as key driver in the continuum during the lost decade
was ignored and grossly mismanaged. Senior civil servants in the early
post-colonial period could be considered quite focused. They had better
work ethics, were more honest and committed to serving consumers and
the nation in their respective roles. When contrasted with the caliber
of leadership that emerged from the ensuing political confusion
(whether military regimes or civilian administrations), what you got
was a mismatch that was retrogressive and counter-productive.
Therefore the key determinant that explains dismal economic performance
in post civil-war years I must say was the mix of corrupt,
unenlightened, visionless and self-centered personnel that occupied the
highest decision-making positions in the nation. It was one thing to
develop smart programs and proffer lofty solutions to economic and
social problems and a totally different matter for the top brass in
charge to listen and implement meaningful policies. Unless leadership
is sufficiently competent to make the right choices amongst all
possible variables and implement same, how can consistent positive
results be achieved?
…Failure of the Human Element
You might rightly argue that the young military cadres and some
civilian cronies that took charge of Nigeria’s affairs most of the
post-colonial period and hay-days of the oil-boom simply lacked the
intellectual capacity, decision-making skills, requisite exposure,
foresight and practical knowledge to navigate the nation by properly
selecting and following through on whatever economic blueprint that was
presented. What they all had in common and in abundance was ambition
and over time, the incompetence became a curse that permeated all
facets of national life, from which the country is still struggling to
emerge.
The attendant decline in public psyche and individual well-being is due
mostly to inability to execute the right policies or adapt to
constantly changing realities. Giving rise to soaring social tension,
decaying public infrastructure, non-adherence to basic rule of law,
widespread survival of the fittest battle and politics of rancor
whereby what matters most is individual pocket at any cost. Tell you
what, no modern and prosperous societies was built on such principles,
ultimately that could lead to anarchy.
Some people are accustomed to believing that social vices like
corruption and indiscipline are main reasons for underdevelopment in
Nigeria, whereas I will strongly argue that those ailments are rather
consequences of historical decedent leadership, failed policies and
incompetent execution. In such circumstance, differences rather than
commonalities amongst the citizens become accentuated. It is extremely
difficult no matter how much you wish or try, to live peacefully in
midst of such inequality and fierce battle for limited resources. As
notable Kenyan Nobel Laureate (Wangari Maathai) said - that the main
cause of conflicts in Africa is the fight for resources.
…Do Or Die
In Nigeria the struggle for greater share of dwindling national pie
derived from crude oil, in the face of botched policies is sure to
remain a defining issue in the political arena for many years to come.
That leaves the bottom echelon of society killing each other for the
crumbs, whereby they seek to blame their deplorable conditions on
whoever they find and vent their anger violently.
If there will be another 50 years of independence to celebrate in
Nigeria, then the effort must start now. The current crop of leaders
should retrace their steps to see where egregious errors were made.
Attention should shift to baking a larger pie and sustaining the
building-blocs that could remedy current tension. This can happen by
focusing on infrastructure and electricity supply, primary healthcare
delivery, qualitative basic education, entrenching the rule of law,
while empowering the private sector and civic society.
A very crucial aspect of that transformative process might include the
honorable exit of erstwhile, worn-out military and civilian so-called
“god-fathers” from active politics and jostling for power. As empirical
evidence clearly reveals, except for self-fulfillment it is hard to
decipher what tangible social and economic progress that would be
derived from having this crop of leaders return or remain at the
epicenter of Nigerian politics. The burning and distracting debate on
zoning and who has the right to run for office in Nigeria might have
been a non-issue were it not for the presence of irresponsive leaders
and their army of sycophants in the political space.
The world is advancing and becoming quite globalized as tools of
technology and socio-economic progress get increasingly sophisticated
far beyond what was obtainable in the 1970s or even the 1990s, how in
the world does this caliber of leaders hope to understand such changes
and fast-paced trend? How will they apply the necessary skills and
knowledge in a new global dispensation if historical evidence clearly
demonstrates that they woefully failed to lift the country when they
had the best chance?