Tunde Oyedoyin London, UK

he tensed atmosphere looming over the forthcoming general elections in the country shifted to London on monday evening as pro-democracy activists and the Nigerian High Commissioner in the United Kingdom, Dr Christopher Kolade, took opposing stands in their evaluation of changes that have occurred in Nigeria since the Obasanjo regime came to power in May 1999.

The forum, "Nigerian Elections 2003: Democratic Consolidation or Political Upheaval?", held at the Royal Commonwealth Society - also doubling as joint organisers with the Centre for Democracy and Development, CDD-became highly inflammable towards the end when Kolade, despite telling attendees his views were those of an ordinary Nigerian and not that of a government spokesman, argued that the country would have reaped more democratic dividends if the electorate and those in low level leadership positions use their power and authority effectively to thwart any excesses of the central leadership.

Kolade, making reference to claims that former dictator, late Gen. Sanni Abacha once looted the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN and carted away millions of Nigerian money, said:"Abacha didn't loot CBN alone, low level leaders have not lived up to their responsibilities, the people have failed." This stance seemed to have ignited the lively and knowledgeable audience of Nigerians and outsiders, as the facilitators insisted that the institutions were too weak to oppose the almighty power concentrated at the highest level of government. To them, the leaders have failed and not the people.

Kolade's attempt to persuade the gathering to agree with him fell on deaf ears as a Zimbabwean observer bluntly disputed this, claiming that African governments - Nigeria inclusive - have placed too much authority and power in party politics for any civil service to withstand their evil deeds. She wasn't a lone voice in the wilderness, Christian Udechukwu, Events Director of Business in Africa magazine, pitched his tent with her and argued that the Nigerian executive and other arms of government have failed the people."If someone can walk to the house of the Minister of Justice and kill him in cold blood without anything happening to the culprits", then the buck stops nowhere but on the desk of the government, he argued.

Earlier in their presentations, CDD's founding Director, Dr Kayode Fayemi, while admitting that some changes have occurred, also pointed out that Obasanjo has done nothing about the report of the Oputa Commission under the guise that the likes of former dictator, Ibrahim Bangida, have instituted legal cases against it. Without the white paper being released or the Commission's report being implemented,:"Obasanjo is sending wrong signals to the populace who applauded him when the Oputa panel was in progress," Fayemi said.

But that is not the only report the regime has kept under lock and key, that of the Civil Service reforms chaired by reknonewd economist Professor Adedeji, has also not seen the light of the day."Three quarters of those in the civil service have no business being there," Fayemi continued. Reason being:"They're either blocking or hiding your files," he told the amused audience. While the government may be seen to be campaigning that some state owned institutions should be privatised, Fayemi said if the rumours going round that the Vice - President, Abubakar Atiku is a major player in their take-over is anything to go by, then all we've had is: "Half - hearted privatisation." Hence, his strong opposition to the views expressed by Kolade.

Dr Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem, General Secretary of the Ugandan-based global Pan African Movement took a harder line than Fayemi and blamed the country's leadership for not improving the lot of the Nigerian people. African leaders, he claimed: "Have selective efficiency." The Nigerian born scholar who had his passport seized by the State Security Services, SSS agents last december, wondered why in a country where power supply is erratic and fuel shortage is back - not mentioning the numerous ethnic and religion clashes and the strike by the University lecturers-the government machinery seems to function perfectly well and very efficient in some areas it has vested interest."If the Minister of Justice cannot get justice, then, what are we talking about?", he queried.

Although Fayemi, Abdul-Raheem and Professor Patrick Wilmot, an observer, noted that Obasanjo does not merit a second term if his performance in the first term is a benchmark, but with the alternatives available, he may as well consolidate his efforts and use the next mandate - if he gets it - as a leverage to live up to the expectations of the electorate.Obasanjo, Wilmot claimed, has one thing in his favour:" He hands over power and is democratic", but the sponsors of Buhari are not only the undemocratic, they have a record for not being good losers as well.

In his presentation, Patrick Smith, editor of Africa Confidential submitted that having seen the new Kenyan government deliver the promised free education to its people within a week of coming to power, this should be matched by whosoever emerges as winner in April 19th's elections. He also has a concern that one of the issues to trail the elections would be that of legitimacy and credibility.

Tunde Oyedoyin is an author, writer and journalist based in London.