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Chigachi EkeMonday, October 27, 2014
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Port Harcourt, Nigeria

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RIVERS 2015 AND THE RIVERINE QUESTION

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o bring you into the big picture let me simplify events in Rivers State. Demographically Rivers is divided into riverine and upland. Whereas riverine are predominantly Ijaws, namely, Andoni, Okrika, Kalabari, etc; upland constitutes groups like the Ogoni, Ikwere, Ekpeye, Ogba, etc. Politically the state is reduced to three senatorial districts. In this delineation riverine and upland segments are deliberately grouped together in each district to foster unity. The districts are Rivers East, Rivers West and Rivers South East.

In 1999 Rivers East comprising of eight Local Government Areas, LGAs, produced Governor Peter Odili. The eight are riverine Bonny, Asari Toru, Akuku Toru and Degema LGAs, and upland Abua/Odual, Ahoada East, Ahoada West and Onelga (Onelga is acronym for Ogba/Ndoni/Egbema Local Government Area) LGAs. Odili, an Ndoni man (upland Ndoni is different from riverine Andoni), got a land slid in the other two districts without the contentious upland/riverine dichotomy being an issue. He received the total support of riverine during his 2003 second term election. In the "spirit of equity" he deliberately handed over power 2007 to another senatorial district; this time to Rivers West.

Rivers West comprising also of eight LGAs produced Odili's successor 2007 in the highly esteemed Governor Celestine Omehia. The eight are riverine Okirika and Ogu/Bolo LGAs, and upland Ikwerre, Emohua, Obio/Akpor, Port Harcourt, Etche and Omuma LGAs. Omehia is an upland man from Ikwerre LGA. When the court removed him from office a third upland man also from Ikwerre took over; this time Governor Chibuike Amaechi. Once again riverine in the other districts gave their unquantifiable support to Amaechi during his 2011 second term election.

In summary, therefore, in four elections-1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011, spanning twelve years two self-standing facts are evident. One, the riverine people in all the three senatorial districts demonstrated their solidarity giving support to three upland governors, namely, Odili, Omehia and Amaechi. This was a marked departure from their erstwhile politics of exclusion that had no space for an upland governor whether military or civilian. Two, the objectionable upland/riverine dichotomy was never an issue because riverine honestly counted on upland support when it is their turn to produce the governor 2015.

Rivers South East comprising of only seven LGAs is expected to produce the next governor 2015. The seven are riverine Andoni and Opobo/Nkoro LGAs, and upland Khana, Gokana, Tai, Eleme and Oyigbo LGAs. The crisis rocking the state is all about Ezebunwo Nyesom Wike's gubernatorial ambition. Wike is not from Rivers South East. He is an upland man from Rivers West that already produced Governors Omehia and Amaechi. Rather than hand over power to Rivers South East, the only senatorial district yet to produce a governor, Rivers West has indicated its interests to continue in office for another eight years.

Faced with total exclusion riverine in all the three districts restated their old position. They are saying that for Rivers to remain the homogenous entity that it is, the next governor 2015 must (1) come from Rivers South East, and more importantly (2) the upland people of Rivers South East must concede the governorship to riverine Andoni and Opobo/Nkoro because riverine of Rivers East and Rivers West willingly conceded same to upland when they voted for Odili, Omehia and Amaechi.

Furthermore, Andoni is favoured over Opobo/Nkoro on account of its underrepresentation in the scheme of things. The least in Rivers South East, Andoni has never produced a senator or federal minister. Such blessings are the reserve of powerful Ogoni found in Khana, Gokana, Tai and Eleme, and Opobo/Nkoro. Secondly, Andoni people have in the past three years indicated their interest to lead after Amaechi. On this tough stance hangs the fate of Rivers; a problem only Goodluck Jonathan must carefully look into.

The entire Niger Delta minorities were highly critical of Ikwerre leadership. What an Itsekiri, Effik, Annang or Bini governor would cringe to contemplate was done in broad daylight to minority Jonathan by the Ikwerre governor called Amaechi. That was a big minus for Ikwerre nationalism. Good enough, the Ikwerre-born ebullient Wike rose to the occasion confronting his kinsman to the general relief. Wike's action was a testament that the Ikwerre nation had no problem with Jonathan. His meteoric rise in Rivers politics was a second chance deliberately given the Ikwerre man to demonstrate he could be trusted with power. Wike must exercise this ephemeral power now firmly in his hands in a manner not to hurt Ikwerres in the long run.

Wike must look back. He must remember the sorry state of Ikwerres before Odili graciously rescued them. For forty years, 1967-2007, no Ikwerre man smelt the Government House; not because Ikwerres had no qualified candidate, Obi Wali and Elechi Amadi were amply qualified, but because hegemonic riverine made it impossible. To add insult to injury riverine had this sadistic habit of wondering aloud if their own minority brothers in Ikwerreland were genuine Rivers people. Such unkind remark had the potential of putting the traumatized victims perpetually on the defensive. We all saw it. The Ikwerre man was so marginalized that he simply opted for a separate Port Harcourt State since riverine had monopolised power to his exclusion.

That was why Rivers voters, indigenes and non-indigenes alike, blessed Odili when he, against pugnacious riverine opposition, picked an Ikwerre man to succeed him. Odili never frustrated Amaechi. President Olusegun Obasanjo did that. Rather than the Ikwerre man going home empty handed Odili made it possible for Omehia to ascend when Obasanjo frustrated Amaechi. Overnight Ikwerres were pulled from the ashes of nothingness and made the aristocrats of Niger Delta politics. Meaning that the mechanics of power put in place by Odili must never be destroyed by any right thinking Ikwerre man, Wike must never forget that. Now that the wheel of history is turned full circle, all eyes are on Ikwerres.

Rivers voters are watching to see if Wike would replicate the Odili example. Let's not mince words: Wike is PDP in Rivers since incumbent Governor Amaechi left that party. If an Ndoni man called Odili created the right condition for the emergence of an Ikwerre governor, equity demands that the Ikwerre man called Wike must also create a similar condition for the emergence of a riverine governor. If the vicious circle of poverty was equitably borne by upland and riverine alike, the same parameter must apply in this virtuous circle of prosperity. Any argument short of equity is mere hogwash and empty hyperbole. Upland governors did not emerge through a free-for-all contest. It is sheer travesty to now change the rule for a riverine governor.

For Wike to now aspire for governorship when he clearly knows the rule is to reawaken in these minorities a deep seated suspicion about the Ikwerre man's sense of justice. Make no mistake about it; Wike's merits are Ikwerres' as he presumes to be that ethnic group's ventriloquist. You could say the same of his faults. Like the Negro, he carries the burden of his race. Now that he's making a mistake, it was Ikwerres making the mistake in the eyes of riverine. He must never spoil his own good works because the Wike of history would rather sacrifice an ambition than undermine his people's tomorrow. Let him borrow a leaf from the highly dignified Omehia.

What the media call riverine opposition to Wike's gubernatorial quest is a gross understatement and over simplification. What is really happening looks increasingly more like a riverine gang up against Ikwerre people: If Wike snatches the bread from the mouth of riverine 2015 just because situation favours him, then none must complain when the table turns. And the table must turn in Rivers and the larger Nigeria after Jonathan's second term expires 2019. The barbarians in Sambisa forest must be forcefully subdued by elements no less barbaric from Tontoubau forest. For now the only safety valve we have against this mutually assured destruction is Jonathan's presidency.

Powerful Wike could punch his way through PDP primary with one hand tied to his back but would go no further as there is a phenomenon called protest vote. Disaffected Rivers South East and riverine in the other districts may opt for a bargain with the devil; such will see their placards read "Rivers 2015: Vote for Jonathan and APC Governor." If Rivers voters are sufficiently convinced that PDP sacrificed equity for cronyism, such Faustian deal will succeed. The fulcrum of Wike's leadership, therefore, is stemming the flow of new recruits into the camp of the opposition.

As I take my leave just remember: Amaechi exists and is calculating. Like a malevolent spirit, he is revenge-hungry and thirsty for Wike's blood. Amaechi has Wike's political associates under the microscope looking for fault. What he sees in these beatitudes soon to declare for elective offices may be the reason for his mocking sneer. Who knows with Amaechi? Just one mistake, a rotten egg or can of worms, and he'll remind Rivers voters, "But I told you so."

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