he long awaited and anticipated Peoples Democratic Party's Presidential Convention is gone and its choice is Alhaji Umar Musa Yar'Adua, the Executive Governor of Katsina State. Before now, as a two-term Governor of Katsina State, not much was heard or known about the 'anointed brother' of Mathew Aremu Okikiola Olusegun 'Akinlawon' Obasanjo, the man who is building his 'political castle' without any recognition of the roles played by those who fought and died for Nigerian Independent and democracy. According to Obasanjo,

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It is a known fact that Obasanjo hidden agenda is manifesting in his endorsement of Yar'Adua, a former chemistry teacher. Yar'Adua was born in Katsina Town, Katsina State in 1951. Yar'Adua is a graduate of Ahmadu Bello University, B. Sc. Education/Chemistry, and M.Sc. Degree in Analytical Chemistry.

While the votes were being counted, live, on NTA, December 16, 2006, I told some people that called me from across the United States about the development at the Eagles Square, Abuja, that, PDP has done its dirty job behind scenes and was using the 'open vote count' to camouflage Nigerians. No single candidate was allowed to address the delegates before the election began, possibly not to expose one of the weak mental strains of Yar'Adua. PDP also ignored the plea, on her kneels, of Sarah Jibril, one of the contestants to address the delegates. What a convention!

PDP, as a Political Party, has the right to nominate any candidate of its choice to carry its flag for any political position in Nigeria. Anyone that PDP thinks fit could carry out its programs, would get the nod. Among those who called me from far away asked if I were surprised, following the outcome of PDP convention. If you follow the trends of Nigeria politics of Obasanjo's Castle building, no Nigerians would be surprised at the outcome of the PDP Presidential convention just concluded in Abuja, December 16, 2006.

Unfortunately those who are willing to serve Nigeria with all vigor, wisdom, good skills, if they do not belong to the individual and personal wishes of some key political leaders, would NEVER have the opportunity to serve the country. If you have the 'ears' of the self-acclaimed kingmakers within the Party, you have no problem. Even if all you know in your adult life as work experience in the United States of America, is to flip hamburgers at McDonald, in Atlanta, once your father is a King Maker, who would not obey the highest Court of the land, the Supreme Court, and his legacy he is leaving behind is ruffian, you would easily win the Senate seat in 2007. If you were a former Governor, and a younger fellow won the Senate seat for 2007, once you were able to issue a death threat to the winner, if he did not withdraw for you, you are a winner.

We have tales of stories about the Nigeria politics. We all realize that, it is not the best candidate winning the Nigeria election; it is getting 'consensus' candidates that would dance to the tune of the kingmakers. We might have some differences in how the kingmakers approach their 'services' to the community. Some are very reasonable, some are still in the Ancient period, and some could be moderate.

PDP is the largest Political party in Nigeria today (2006) and Nigerians believe that whomsoever wins the PDP Presidential ticket becomes the next Nigeria President, come 2007 elections. That makes it very interesting the outcome of the PDP Presidential Primaries with Yar'Adua picking up PDP Presidential ticket. In any civilized world, the other Presidential contestants would be given fair opportunities during the convention, especially to address the delegates, to know them better. Was that the case with the recent PDP convention? History would judge that.

We understood that some delegates left the convention before it was over with. Only delegates from Katsina and Rivers were believed to have stayed till the last moment. Katsina delegates were waiting to congratulate their son, while Rivers were waiting to hear the announcement of Odili as Yar'Adua's running mate. Some wore frown faces to the point of the host or MC asked the delegates whether they were mourning instead of rejoicing.

One of the delegates from South East to the 2007 PDP convention remarked:

"What you are witnessing is a situation where all the aspirants, as a group belonging to one family, prepared a dish of pounded yam. And when they were about to eat it, their father said the food was meant for only one of them - the sibling that contributed the least to the dish. So, in such a situation, do you think the other children will be happy serving the whole food to their brother, who, indeed, was not interested in the meal in the first place? This is the situation in this PDP convention, today. Those, who worked to be President, have been told of forced to endorse another that was never interested in the office."

Given that we have a strong Political Party, not these over 40 Mushroom Associations we called Political Parties, our story line would be different. Some of them are Action Congress (AC), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Fresh Democratic Party (FDP), Justice Party (JP), and Citizens Popular Party (CPP). Unfortunately, Nigeria is not politically matured to that level yet. Everybody wants to be King.

Some of the PDP Presidential candidates that put their heart and soul on the PDP Presidential ticket were pushed aside, possibly forced to withdraw their candidacy before the Party sets the 'bulldog', EFCC, on them, without considering what Nigerians desire. Peter Odili, everybody would believe to be the front runner for the PDP ticket and would possibly picked Mohammed Makarfi, Kaduna State Governor as his running mate. Makarfi was cajoled, withdrew his candidacy, and opted for the Senate seat. General Marwa, another PDP frontrunner candidate stayed in the race till the end. Donald Duke was not too serious about the race anyway; so also Dr. Sam Egwu, Udenwa and Attah were never taken very serious nevertheless, while Orji Kalu, the mega-mouthed Governor of Abia State, chickened-out. I give it up to the PDP Presidential contestants for the sportsmanship shown at the outcome of the gathering of the 'faithful'. Or could it be that they were afraid of EFCC? I doubt it.

Yar'Adua was never seen anywhere campaigning for the PDP Presidential ticket. A reluctant PDP Presidential candidate, a man people believed have no fire in the belly to build a new Nigeria. How would this man govern Nigeria, since the Northern leaders opinion was not sought before Obasanjo made his choice? A man believed not to have the experience, the contact and reach, with poor health to run a successful presidency after Obasanjo. Hopefully he would not be a hostage to the wishes and directions of Obasanjo and his cohorts.

However, Yar'Adua's bid was done for him by one of the greatest Political strategist, Pa Saraki, under his Northern Forum. Pa Saraki traveled far and wide across the country, touched bases with the key areas, and with individuals that matter in the Nigeria Politics, vending for the Northern interest. With the result of the PDP convention, Pa Saraki made it again. Who can match this political enigma in the country today (2007, not even Obasanjo. Obasanjo has a long way to go to match Saraki's political strategy.

One thing Nigerians should remember is that the North is a united front. The North is so united that it would be hard for anyone to break through the metal that we call North. There might be some disagreements here and there, but when it comes to the Northern Agenda, it is in unison.

Does the Northern leaders use the North Agenda favorably among the Talakawas, you be the judge.

There are three, out of the six political zones in the North: North West, North East and North Central. There is always a high respect for any good leaders in the north. The 'ugly' ones among them might have some problems with the Youth, especially. Consensus is the name of the Northern game when it comes to Northern Agenda. It has been working for them.

In the South, it has the three zones like in the North; South East, South-South, and South West. Every 'monkey wants to dine with the King' in the South. No one is ready to back down for anyone. Could it be the South history, orientation, or the people? We debated this subject in one of the episodes on my program "Nigeria This Week" on www.theblacktelevision.com. We pointedly asked then, where were the South-South Candidates.

Obasanjo is using Yar'Adua to nail the political coffin of Atiku, and to seal that of Babangida, especially for the next four years. With the amendment of the PDP Constitution, Obasanjo would remain at the helm of PDP affairs for some times to come. The section that deals with the possibility of Obasanjo becoming the BOT Chair states,

"Without prejudice to the provision of this constitution, ensure that an elected Chairman is either a former President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria produced by the party or in the absence of such; or a former National Chairman of the Party, who has distinguished himself in the service of the party; or a person of proven integrity who has contributed immensely to the growth of the party."

Another section of the amendment will allow Obasanjo, if elected the BOT Chair, to have a total control of PDP and its elected officials. In the amendment, the BOT will

"�Harmonize, co-ordinate, review and advice on policies, programmes and activities of the party at the national level� Supervise the day-to-day activities of the party".

Could this be part of Obasanjo's calculation as his third term by another means? And from this dependency Obasanjo can hope to have the leeway to continue to be relevant and project his influence in governance by adopting a novice in the Katsina Governor.

Is Obasanjo repeating what he did in 1979 when he installed President Shehu Shagari? Is Yar'Adua going to be a led-leader, who does not understand the dynamics of power and how to use it to its leadership responsibilities, who could not authoritatively exercise the full scope of the powers in his office, and work more on the dictates from others, or a mentor? It could also go to who would serve on Yar'Adua's Cabinet. Like Shehu Shagari's cabinet, while they were sharing the Booties, we understood that he went upstairs to pray for them. May be, we could see likes Ribadu and el-Rufai's in Yar'Adua's cabinet, to continue Obasanjo's reforms.

To seal up any agitation from the South-South for the PDP Presidential ticket to come from the region or zone, Bayelsa State Governor, Jonathan Goodluck, a holder of Doctor of Philosophy, (Ph. D.), in Zoology, from University of Port Harcourt, was picked as a running mate for Yar'Adua. He could not pick Uba as his deputy because of the EFCC's sting on him. Apparently Uba has won PDP primary election in Anambra State Gubernatorial race for 2007. Jonathan would not turn down the offer for several reasons one of which is his wife's name on the EFCC's black book.

Unfortunately, some issues have stained Peter Odili's good opportunity to lead Nigeria in 2007. Some of these are the source of his "Father Christmas" life style with heavy donations across Nigeria to worthy and sometimes unworthy programs; his deals with Cadbury Conundrum; the cost of building the 150 MW Omoku Gas Turbine and Power Transmission Line; his relationship with Arik Airlines and some oil deals. Odili would not complain because of the EFCC's sting on him. Poor Odili, while endorsing Yar'Adua/Goodluck ticket, he said "�South-South and the Niger Delta have come into the power equation of the Federal Republic of Nigeria." That's good enough.

Another theory of Obasanjo's is to pacify the North, the National Assembly; and to stop any probe of his administration. If and when probed and found guilty, which could be expected, on the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) scandal, he would get Presidential Pardon from his "Brother", Yar'Adua, like Obasanjo promised to pardon Atiku if he apologized to the Nation and denounced his Presidential ambition. The 'stubborn Grasshopper' would not do that. He is now the AC Presidential candidate.

Yar'Adua is a synonymous name from Alhaji Musa Yar'adua, the Tafida and later Mutawallen Katsina, the powerful NPC chieftain who was Minister for Lagos Affairs in the First Republic; through Major General Shehu Musa Yar'adua, Tafidan Katsina, Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters in 1976-79 under Obasanjo, who died in Prison; now to Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar'adua, Mutawallen Katsina, Governor of Katsina State, and most probably, the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in May 2007.

Who is Umaru Musa Yar'Adua? Is he qualified to lead Nigeria? What have been his records since 1999 as Katsina State Governor? When his name was mentioned in one of our discussions, in Oklahoma, while the counting was going on, somebody asked, Yar'Adua who? Did Yar'Adua come back from his grave? Who is he? Which State did he come from? Those are the questions some Nigerians are asking.

As a public official, especially wanting to be number one Nigerian Citizen, his life becomes public record. Someone who lives in Katsina, states that "Here, we hardly know if we have a State Governor. We neither see nor hear him". May be, Yar'Adua is an introvert with a reserved personality. A couple of what we know about Yar'Adua is that of his failing health which might not likely guarantee him a safe, free and full tenure in office. He is suffering from a chronic kidney condition. In the last six years, (2000) he is said to have undergone frequent dialysis trip to Germany to enable his kidneys function effectively.

Other available information on Yar'Adua is lack of good inter-personal relationship, with no single intimate friend or confidant, just like his late brother, Shehu Yar'Adua. Musa Yar'Adua could lack courage, focus, initiative, and boldness to appear in the public to handle National and International matters, unlike Obasanjo. In another way, could we say then that Yar'Adua's personality lacks competence, vibrancy, exposure, experience, charisma and good health to lead Nigeria in 2007? Nigerians might have to surround him with very high intellects if he wins the 2007 Presidential elections.

Nonetheless, part of Yar'Adua's personality is a severe sense of humility, simplicity and openness to the state's governance. Katsina State Government, under Yar'Adua, has N6 billion in its treasury today (December 2006), with his focus on educational sector. Not an extravagance Governor, so we learned.

With Buhari emerging as the ANPP consensus Presidential candidate, PDP has a lot of work to do. Could there be any connection with the visit of Buhari to Aso Rock recently, or the rumor that he was been to persuaded by Obasanjo for what Nigerians are not too clear about. Was that part of Obasanjo's game plan to get Buhari to cover him up in case EFCC decides to 'open Atiku's can of worms' on Obasanjo after he might have lost the Presidential immunity?

It would be interesting to see the two mighty elephants lock horns together to wrestle for the number one position and see who suffers from their 'fight', the 'grass' where they fought, or their 'horns'.

What a smart move by ANPP. I hope it would be able to develop some good strategies to give PDP a run for its money. That would be interesting. Hopefully ANPP would ally with other parties to cave in for Buhari. Then PDP would be in a big okra soup. It is reliably learned that AC is backed by Atiku Abubakar, and Ibrahim Babangida's NDP. How Yar'Adua would handle other brothers like Atiku with AC, and IBB with NDP if they both decide to join those Political Parties, and Buhari, would be interesting to watch.

With Atiku, Babangida, Buhari and Yar'Adua coming to lock horns together, the Northern block votes might be gone, and how would Obasanjo deal with, not too contented Yorubas in the South West, the frustrated South East that he has no face, and the bitter South-South that just missed its golden opportunity to present PDP Presidential candidate.

Obasanjo is also strategizing across the country to install his 'boys' as Governors in some key states across the country to continue the Political Castle - Kwankwaso in Kano, Shagari in Sokoto, for instance. Obasanjo, since he wants to lay a legacy in the Nigerian Political arena, he should give some credence to the past Nigerian leaders, dead or alive, especially the dead ones from his ethnic group, and allow their praises to be sung clear and loud without any reprimand.

Regardless the construction of Obasanjo's political Castle or not, Nigeria number one political enemy, Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida is possibly out from 2007 elections, regardless whom he stepped out for, like he stepped aside in 1993; while Atiku's political career might have been sealed. Our efforts on IBB are not in vain after all, at least for now. We will work on his future political moves.

Obasanjo is taking the advantage of the porous South to build his Political Castle. Could Obasanjo match the strategies of the political stratagem of Pa Saraki in building a political castle?

I hope PDP has not made some terrible miscalculations of its choice of a frail Yar'Adua and a marionette Jonathan. Yar'Adua should not get too comfortable with his PDP Presidential ticket. In politics, never take anything for granted.

We keep our fingers crossed. 2007 Nigeria politics is becoming a very interesting exercise. The Heat is on!

God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.