he forthcoming presidential election to choose the fifth democratically elected president of Nigeria-after Shagari, Abiola, Obasanjo, and Yar'Adua-has now crystallized into a showdown between President Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari. That Buhari is even considered a top contender who could beat President Jonathan is an exemplification of the complicated and tortured nature of Nigerian politics, which is significantly influenced by ethnic jingoism, religious intolerance, greed and unbridled ambition for political power. These negative attributes of Nigerian politics, among many more, which have profoundly shaped Nigeria's political evolution, are responsible for Nigeria's stunted political growth for which there has been some amelioration since the inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999. Political deleteriousness as a consequence of the highly toxic nature of Nigerian politics has ushered onto the political landscape the phenomenon of Buharimania, which may be defined as "a fanatic political fealty to Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria's former dictator and authoritarian extraordinaire." In propagating the phenomenon of Buharimania, its adherents, who are mainly northern Nigerians, are effectively espousing the political ideology of political masochism.

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Kovacevic in his scholarly work titled 'Masochism in Political Behavior,' defined political masochism as "any political behavior in which the protagonists willingly pursue self-directed pain and suffering in order to accomplish their political goals. It involves the self-chosen endangerment of one's life and liberty and thus includes a whole range of contemporary behaviors. including hunger strikes and suicide bombers." In examining Buharimania in the context of Nigerian political masochism, a dichotomization of the underlying issues is necessary for rigorous analysis. First, the Buhari record and the construction of a model to predict what his behavior would look like as an executive president of Nigeria; second, the likely consequences on the corporate existence of Nigeria of a Buhari presidency when the Buharimaniacs propose that Nigerians subject themselves to Buhari's pain for a better country.

Buhari's most vociferous supporters claim their political goals, which they often marry with socioeconomic goals as well, are the institution of corruption free governance in Nigeria and the modernization of the state such that basics such as electricity, water and housing are available to the generality of Nigerians. They swear by the man, Buhari, to lead Nigerians to this political and socioeconomic nirvana. As there will be pain along the way to the creation of this new Nigeria, it is imperative to examine the nature of this pain and whether it will actually lead to the hopes and aspirations of the political masochists, nay every Nigerian, or be counterproductive and even spell doom for the nation.

An analysis of the Buhari record provides a valuable aperture into his soul and is the basis for the design of a predictive behavior model as president should he be elected. That a person's past record was a legitimate predictive tool of his/her future behavior was the basis for a Wole Soyinka essay in 2007 titled 'The Crimes of Buhari.' According to Soyinka, "History matters. Records are not kept simply to assist the weakness of memory, but to operate as guides to the future." What then is the Buhari record? A compendium of a part of this record is presented below:

1. Ethnic bias in the application of justice to politicians of the Second Republic following Buhari's overthrow of that Republic. For example, whereas President Shagari , Buhari's fellow Fulani ethnic, was detained in a cozy government guest house in Ikoyi, Lagos, the ethnic Igbo Vice President Alex Ekwueme was jailed under harsh conditions at Kirikiri prisons.

2. Disregard for the rule of law as exemplified in his refusal to release from detention both Alex Ekwueme and Adekunle Ajasin, the UPN governor of Ondo State, even after both men had been acquitted of corruption charges by Buhari's tribunals. Of Alex Ekwueme, Justice Samson Uwaifo, the tribunal head, stated that Ekwueme left office as vice president poorer than when he took office. Buhari further demonstrated his contempt for the rule of law when he ordered the execution of Bernard Ogedengbe, along with Lawal Ojulope and Bartholomew Owoh, for hard drug offences, following the application of retroactive laws to convict Ogedengbe.

3. An authoritarian bent which influenced the imposition of a draconian law ( Decree 4) which made it an offense to publish anything Buhari considered anti government even if they were true. This law was applied in the incarceration of the journalists Nduka Irabor and Tunde Thompson.

4. The selective application of the law whereby transgressions of Buhari's fellow Fulani in high places were tolerated, whereas southerners were shown no such mercies. For example, Fela Anikulapo Kuti was sent to jail for possessing foreign currency which he legitimately earned, whereas Alhaji Alhaji, then permanent secretary in the ministry of Finance, who was found to have operated several foreign accounts when Buhari had forbidden top government officials from doing so, was left alone. The remorse stricken judge who sentenced Fela to jail later apologized to the Afro beat king for the injustice, which had been ordered from above. Well known to Nigerians is the matter of the 53 suitcases which belonged to a Northern emir and were passed through customs without being searched during a period the borders were sealed so a national currency changeover could be carried out.

5. A disdainful streak and an unbending will contemptuous of correction as was demonstrated in his refusal to appear before the Oputa panel, and in his failure to apologize for his egregious acts as military dictator of Nigeria.

6. An Islamic fundamentalist streak which was obviously the impetus for a speech he delivered in 2000 at a book launch where he called for a nationwide imposition of Sharia. During the run up to the 2007 presidential election, he exhorted Muslims not to vote for a non Muslim. Undoubtedly, he was referring to the candidacy of Obasanjo, and he exposed his religious bigotry by those statements. As military head of State, he herded Nigeria into full fledged membership of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). Babangida took the rap for the OIC controversy, but a United States Defense Department study of Nigeria published in the early 1990s showed that Buhari, without any regard whatever for the religious sensibilities of Nigerians of other faiths, actually submitted the application before his palace coup overthrow.

7. A complete lack of democratic credentials, considering his refusal to announce a political time table for a handover when he seized power in 1983. During Abacha's heinous heydays, he had no qualms in serving the dictator while courageous men like Solomon Lar, the late Abubakar Rimi and Alex Ekwueme risked their lives in standing up to Abacha.

8. Economic policies which imposed severe restrictions on imports and massively retrenched government workers. A US government report during Buhari's military regime stated that "Buhari's inflexible austerity measures actually made it very difficult for local industries to source imported raw materials, as a result of which many of these industries were forced to lay off workers and/or operate at substantially reduced capacities. Additionally, those measures created high inflation and basic food items became unaffordable for many."

Given the above record, a model construct of a Buhari presidency could be called 'Islamic authoritarian,' and its elements would be the following: a gradual undermining of the secular, Nigerian constitution through the use of subterfuges, stratagems, demagoguery of the national corruption issue, and crass populism which would turn his millions of northern supporters against the National Assembly; an emasculated National Assembly and the Zimbabweization of Nigeria, then the enthronement of Buhari as maximum ruler who, like the autocrat in Zimbabwe, would enforce his will with the use of a re-northernized Nigerian military; the enactment of laws by a browbeaten and pliant National Assembly to socially reengineer Nigerian society, especially southern Nigeria, where pants wearing by women and integration of the sexes in public places could be severely restricted if not outlawed; a rekindling of a national debate of Sharia law, quiescent for several years now, following the law's aggressive unveiling in Zamfara, where Buba Bello Jangebe's wrist was amputated for stealing a cow, and Safiya Husseini was sentenced to die by stoning for adultery; the imposition of Buharinomics whose tenets would be austerity, nationalization and arbitrary seizures of businesses from allegedly corrupt owners, with the outcome possibly being a decline in GDP and a worsening of the unemployment situation.

The above construct of a Buhari administration would constitute the pain politically masochistic Nigerians, in their perfectly understandable quest for a nation where things work, would abet in its imposition on Nigerians by President Buhari. In Muhammadu Buhari, however, their masochistic tendencies in the context of his governing construct could spell doom for the corporate existence of Nigeria, primarily because the candidacy of President Jonathan has united south-south and southeastern Nigeria, particularly the peoples of the former Eastern Region of Nigeria, as never before. For the first time since Nigerian independence, they are determined as one to ensure that one of their own occupies the executive presidency of the Nigerian nation for a full term. They are resolved never to allow the seeds of division to be sown among their ranks again, as was done during the Biafran War, while the proceeds from their oil were primarily used to build up the rest of Nigeria, and to create a super wealthy class of Nigerians who are preponderantly non south-south or southeastern Nigerian. A defeat of President Jonathan could be acceptable to them as an outcome of a contest based on unifying pan-Nigerian issues, but the contrary would be the case if intolerant Fulani ethnic jingoism and Islamic religious demagoguery were perceived to be responsible for his defeat. Then the Niger Delta militancy would probably be reignited. And if an authoritarian President Buhari uses military force to subdue it, he risks a Darfur situation and an intervention by the United Nations, which recently has shown a willingness to intervene in the political affairs of sovereign nations as is happening right now in Ivory Coast and in Libya. An unleashing of centrifugal forces upon the Nigerian nation and a cascading of these events as a result of a condescending, religiously intolerant and authoritarian President Buhari could make him the last president of Nigeria.

Buharimania is primarily a northern Nigerian phenomenon driven by selfish, ethnic jingoism and religious fanaticism, more than a fealty to the Nigerian state and what needs to be done to unleash its socioeconomic potential for the benefit of all. The phenomenon is creeping through the southwest, especially within its Muslim population, despite the hard work of Obasanjo and other Yoruba Christians to keep it away, for they are perspicacious enough to discern what is coming at the Nigerian state should Buhari prevail. Playing clairvoyant about the direction of Buharimania, Obasanjo, during Jonathan's rally finale in Abuja on March 26th, warned inter alia: "The recent resort to sentiments and emotions of religion and regionalism is self serving, unpatriotic and mischievous to say the least. It is also playing on dangerous emotive issues that ignite uncontrollable passion and can destabilize if not destroy our country."

Complicating matters for the Christian Yoruba is the acceptance by Pastor Tunde Bakare to be Buhari's running mate. The immiscibility of the backgrounds and dispositions of both men is a recipe for political and policy disagreements, and ultimate political disaster should they triumph at the polls. The titanic struggle between Obasanjo and Atiku for political supremacy could be a picnic when juxtaposed with the explosive differences that could define the relationship between Buhari and Bakare.

Buhari's choice of Bakare was a convenient feint to repair his damaged reputation as an Islamic fundamentalist and to reassure suspicious Christian Nigerians. The choice of Bakare was also a masterstroke Fulani tactic once used to devastating effect by Alimi, the Fulani Jihadist and conqueror of Ilorin. After befriending Afonja, the Yoruba general of Ilorin and encouraging rebellion by Afonja against his boss the Alaafin of Oyo, Alimi later attacked a weakened Afonja, vanquished him, burned his body in the market square of Ilorin, then declared the Fulani Emirate of Ilorin in a majority Yoruba town. The set-up of Bakare to split the Yoruba vote is akin to Alimi's tactic to split Afonja from the Oyo Empire, and the implementation of this tactic will be complete when further stratagems are applied to remove Bakare from the government, during a Buhari administration.

The Afonjarization of Bakare ought to be of serious concern to the Christian Yoruba when evaluating the Buhari/Bakare ticket. Nigeria's date with Destiny on April 16th 2011, or whatever date INEC reschedules for the presidential election, is therefore a hell of a portentous date.