FEATURE ARTICLE

Olanrewaju AjiboyeMonday, January 17, 2005
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Lagos, Nigeria

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2007: THERE MAY BE NO VACANCY IN ASO ROCK AFTERALL


rom the inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999 till date, we can use State of the Nation today to decipher the occurrences of the past and reasonably project what the future have in stock for us. The fulcrum of the discussion naturally centres on the presidency, an institution that affects not only the lives of Nigerians but also the world around us.

Some of the occurrences we already know the reasons. For example, another fourth republic would not have been able to form without consequences if Abiola should be around and would not be favoured to head it. Abiola died of "natural causes" and we were able to prosecute the fourth republic's "democratic agenda.

In the same vein, it would not have been an easy task to conduct another presidential election, which would be won by any other candidate from any other zone apart from Abiola's zone; South West. Doing so would have confirmed with no ambiguity that a powerful clique wants to hold on to power tenaciously at the expense of the other zones.

However, these are just all about the occurrences that their full imports do not have many interpretations. We shall now consider all other actions and inactions that we may not be able to interpret fully when they happened.

To start with, one major political decision taken by the presidency was the retirement in one full sweep of all military personnel who had held political appointments in the previous military dictatorships. Forget the huge taxpayers money used in training them for the protection of their motherland in the event of attack. The public hailed this praised the action as the right step. The people's perception of the decision is that this crop of officers would not go back to their different postings to corrupt those who had not tasted political powers. Interpreted in a different way, it means they would have become so rich and would cost distractions to others in their military assignments.

Another prompt action was the immediate end put to queues at the different petrol stations in the country. This unnecessary act of wickedness was one of the many instruments employed by the military to suppress further, the will of the people in embarking on any kind of agitations against their misrule.


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The presidency also formed a Government of National Unity of sort, by appointing members of the opposition to the federal cabinet. The then Federal Executive Council had politicians of different political persuasions.

Furthermore, the present civilian government arrested and charged to court, some members of Abacha and Abdul Salami Abubakar's dictatorships. Up until today, they are still being held in jail on charges that have foot dragged for too long. Though there is no pity for them because its law of Karma, what you reap is what you sow, even at that they deserve a fair and expedited hearing.

Another institution that was in the focus of the presidency was the PDP leadership. The presidency had interest in who occupies the chairmanship position of the party. The party has therefore also had more than one chairman in its few years of existence though this may be so because of the party's constitution, which I must confess, do not know anything about.

As far as the military is concerned, there must have been more than two changes in the Chiefs of Staff of each arm: Army, Navy and the Air force. The Police at least, twice.

The presidency took more than a passing interest in who become the President and Speaker of the two legislative assemblies: the Senate and House of Representatives. For this special interest of the presidency, the Upper House (Senate) replaced her president three times before the end of a four-year term. And the House of Representative on her part had two during the same period. The First Speaker abdicated the throne when there was no hiding place for certificate forgery. Not that there was no other attempt to change more than twice, but the second Speaker, Ghali Umar Na'aaba was an astute politician who manoeuvred till the end of the term but was unable to win his party's primary for a second term.

Mid term into the first term of 1999 and 2003, the country's Attorney General Chief Bola Ige was murdered in his Home in Ibadan. Police investigations ran for some time, some suspects were arrested and charged to court. The long and short of the story is that nobody was convicted for the assassination of this Phenomenon.

At the 2003 elections, all other parties both the pre-1999 and those registered before the 2003 general elections were humbled at the elections by the party that produced the presidency in 1999. The landmark of the 2003 elections was the "capture" of the South West, a region that has the tradition of progressive politics, by the conservative PDP.

Premium Motor Spirit, Diesel and Kerosene, these all time important commodities have had an upward review in their prices on so many occasions by the present administration. Refineries are not working.

The country had to depend on the importation of these products to meet local demands.

The present civilian government inherited an exchange rate of less than =N=100.00 to a U.S. Dollar, today Naira exchanges between =N=139.00 and =N140.00 to the same Dollar.

Governors of opposing political parties who have recalcitrant tendencies towards the Abuja Power house are being tamed by different political weapons at the latter's disposal.

Financial institutions are currently facing a hard time because of the request of the Apex Bank (CBN) that they should all re-capitalize to the tune of 25Billion Naira by the end of year 2005.

Experts in political treachery, master riggers, hatchet men who are talented in the art of Diatribe are having a field day in and around the corridors of power.

Suddenly the presidency saw the need for a conference of stakeholders in the enterprise called Nigeria and membership being proposed by the Presidency, are to be appointed.

The summation of all the above has led to more confusion in the land. The vast majority of Nigerians are facing untold hardship and there seems to be no solution in the horizon.

But why would a government want to inflict pains on its own people? The answers to this poser would vary. One, it is either the government means well but the people are not being carried along. Two, it may also be that the people that surrounds the men of power are sending wrong signals about the state of affairs in the country or that saboteurs are at work. The big one however is that could the people in Power be scheming for the prolongation of their term? Could they have been taking on all oppositions and institutions to weaken them so that when the time comes the resistance is weaker or is not there at all? The Daily Independent online carries a screaming headline "Five-Year Single Term: Obasanjo Seeks first shot" The paper claimed sources said the president might have accepted the recommendations of the Patriots of 2002.

Having highlighted all the above, we can therefore use the past to determine the present and in a way project for the future. And the past include the treacheries of Babangida and Abacha. Both employed confusion, hunger, poverty, intimidation, uncertainties, fears, blackmails and even witchcraft in order perpetuate themselves in office. The seat became too hot for Babangida, he had to "Step Aside", and God removed his alter ego, Abacha.

If asked to hazard a guess, I would posit that there are too many similarities in Babangida and Abacha's lines of actions towards self succession. We may want to dismiss this as doing a disservice to this man, that he voluntarily handed over to an elected government in 1979. However, it could have been a survival instinct that made that possible then, he was in the military and may not have had absolute loyalty. Was he not touted as holding power on behalf of some officers then? Indeed the time is different. After all, the likes of Mandela do not talk when they do not have signs.