FEATURE ARTICLE


Paul Nwabuikwu  (EMAIL)
Wednesday, December 12, 2001


2003: The road to dictatorship


he Electoral Act which was recently signed into law by President Olusegun Obasanjo is a manual for a one party state. It represents a new low in the political history of this much abused country. No amount of creative rationalisation can conceal the fact that this new law is a premeditated effort to take Nigeria back to the political dark ages from which we escaped in May 1999.

President Obasanjo's speech during the signing ceremony was a disingenuous piece of self-serving theorising. He said that Nigerians should "manage" the dubious legislation because "No law made by man can ever be regarded as perfect". He went ahead to add: "While I see minor imperfections, they are not enough to split hair(s) about or continue to raise dust and threaten fire and brimstone".

Our number one citizen must have special dictionary very different from what the rest of us common folks use. There is nothing "minor" about a law that is custom-made to ensure that there is no level playing ground in Nigerian politics. Even the much abused Abdulsalami constitution is in some ways an improvement over this.

Consider the provision which makes governors who have been elected twice ineligible to contest in 2003 even though their first tenure under a different political dispensation was truncated. I cannot, for the life of me understand the thinking behind this law except the cynical Nigerian philosophy encapsulated in the question: "Na only him get mouth to chop?" Accepting this kind of reasoning means that we have not only given up any hope of improving our politics but have decided instead to institutionalise corruption.

Even more alarming is the provision which says that the usual order of elections should be reversed. In other words, the presidential election will be first while the council polls will come last. Ordinarily, I am a firm believer in changing or amending laws to make them more responsive to urgent needs. At this stage of our development, we cannot afford the luxury of hanging on to outmoded and counterproductive laws. But what exactly is the purpose of this distinctly "unminor" change? It is clear to see. The President wants to make his re-election a foregone conclusion even before the campaign starts.

With the power of incumbency behind him and the resources of numerous "Otunbas" and other grateful contractors at his disposal, his chances of winning are great (except, of course, if a new factor enters the equation). Then, after his victory, he then proceeds to pick and choose the candidates for governorship, Senate, House of Representatives, state assemblies and councils who are to his specifications. The president has the memory of an elephant and you can be sure he will remember the governor who criticised him in a disrespectful manner and the senator who led the opposition to a bill close to his heart and take appropriate action. The famed "bandwagon syndrome" will greatly assist the president in achieving this rather pleasant objective.

A logical question: why not? Why shouldn't the president take action to protect his electoral fortunes and ensure that he comes back with this kind of people in 2003? The answer is that there is something very wrong with the executive sitting down with a compromised parliament to make laws, not for the good governance of Nigeria, but to ensure their safe passage through 2003. It is highly cynical, manipulative and ultimately anti-Nigeria. By all means, let Obasanjo win if he deserves to win. I might even vote for him because of GSM and an improving NEPA. But it is unconscionable to achieve this objective in this rather underhand way.

Even more fundamental is the failure of the electoral bill to facilitate the creation of new parties. Since the beginning of this administration, there has been a vigorous campaign for new parties. Proponents such as Gani Fawehinmi and Olisa Agbakoba have given solid reasons to support the campaign. The existing parties which were formed in a hurry are being torn apart by contradictions and internal strife. Controlled by a few founders and cynical aparachiks, the parties are not truly representative of their rank and file.

The PDP, APP and AD are falling apart and it is time for new groups and new voices to strengthen the democratic process. The Electoral Act ignored these compelling reasons. Rather than make the emergence of new parties easier, the new law stipulates that a registered party must win at least 15 per cent of chairmanship and councillorship positions in the federation before participating in any election. Again, the motive of those who drafted and approved it is easy to see. They have sacrificed the larger interests of Nigeria to protect their squalid ambitions.

Significantly, Abdullahi Matori, a House of Representatives member from Bauchi has accused a small clique in the National Assembly of smuggling the anti-party provision which he says was never agreed upon into the Act. To make matterrs worse, independent candidacy is also not included in the new law.

Every right thinking Nigerian should be worried about these developments. Midway into the tenure of this government, the alternatives are reducing, freedoms are being circumscribed and the political space is contracting.

The President and the National Assembly have advised aggrieved Nigerians to go to court. Excellent advice. Nigerians need to use the courts more to strengthen democratic institutions. But it is significant that neither Obasanjo nor the Assembly members have offered any strong reasons for their actions. They are not dealing with the issue at the level of ideas and debate. Knowing that any cases are likely to take some time in the courts, they are confident that their very personal objectives would have been achieved by the time it is decided one way or the other.

The Electoral Act is raising the political temperatures of the nation. The polity is getting heated up unduly not by a clash of ideas, but by the dangerous zero sum game of caucus politics. This is not the nurturing kind of disagreement that democracy needs but a more dangerous variety. If the script plays out, the already suffocating influence of the PDP and the overwhelming powers of the presidency would be further boosted even as the APP and AD shrink further, all at the expense of our democracy. It is not a pleasant prospect.

These disquieting events remind one that Obasanjo is a relatively new comer to multi-partism. Soon after he relinquished power in 1979, he authored a book which recommended one-party rule as the best form of government. One hopes that the Electoral Act is not an attempt to revive an old fantasy.