…Why Do Some Progress and Others Flounder?
f you are like me, economic and socio-political issues pertaining to countries will keep you awake quite often. In my case, I have always pondered why progress occurs in some countries and elude others. Especially in relation to Nigeria - I have tried to decipher beyond the fundamental tenets of political stability, corruption, and transparency, why indeed has Nigeria been unable to take off or make remarkable strides in over four decades as we have seen in Asia, namely; Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Singapore and now China and India? Are these countries less corrupt? Is freedom and good governance flourishing? Not exactly, but more stable – yes, thanks to firm and timely decisions that lead to economic progress.
In absolute terms, not that you won’t notice pockets of improvement in Nigeria, but based on published data and qualitative parameters, the country has actually retrogressed over the period in question. We are all witness to statistical evidence suggesting that if you lived in the 1960s in Nigeria, you probably had higher quality of life and superior social amenities than today. Moreso your chance of living longer was far better than today – look around you and compare the ages and condition of health of your parents and older generation still alive and the average age of those perishing today. To be sure, life expectancy has declined from 65 to 48 years over the last three decades. The analogy on life-expectancy and quality of life is just one of the many comparisons.
In my opinion, a crucial factor to which we can attribute development ills in Nigeria today is simply – Timeliness. This can be explained in simple terms – the time it takes to conceive and achieve results. We are aware of the concept of “time value of money” in finance and how that is key consideration in investment decision. In Nigeria’s environment this crucial determinant doesn’t seem to resonate quite well, which partly explains the current state of affairs. Ask me how I know - I arrived at this conclusion based on deep analysis and experience.
…If the World Was Static
If the world was static, then Nigeria’s policy-makers might have been accorded the distinct pleasure of procrastinating and implementing their lofty ideas at their own pace. But no, that’s not how the world of business or society function.
At independence in 1960, Nigeria’s population was estimated at about 45 million people by 1970 that rose to over 55 million. Today based on recent census figures the population is about 150 million people. That’s a whopping additional 100 million people, over a period of nearly half century. Thirty percent of the population (or 50 million people) was added since 1990/1992 and based on current annual growth rate of 2,4 percent about 3,5 million people will be added to the population per annum. Of the total population, 65 percent are below the age of 35 years. In demographic parlance that is called “youth bulge” - which by expert opinion could portend considerable headache or opportunities for Nigeria in coming years.
Now compare that to pace of progress - available and new infrastructure, social amenities and employment opportunities then you will understand why the country is where it is today and what could happen in future. Economic growth rate during most of the 1980s and early 1990s was quite dismal in Nigeria. Only since 2002-2004 did the country began to register average annual growth rate of 3-5% and even higher for non-oil sector. Weighed against backdrop of new road-networks, power generation, healthcare needs, primary/secondary schools, housing stock, new jobs etc, these major indicators lag way behind population growth trend.
The key questions therefore that baffles me are two-fold:
- Do policy-makers and senior public sector bureaucrats in Nigeria truly understand and weigh the impact of their incompetence and pace of decision-making on national development? Or they could care less.
- If there are specific timelines tied to projects and plans laid out by administrations, what effort or commitment is made to meet those objectives in a timely manner? Or it doesn’t really matter as long as the work gets done ultimately or maybe simply abandoned.
…Agenda Upon Agendas
Yes there are countless valid reasons why decisions can be deferred on a project, but within Nigerian context, attitude to work, nepotism, blind pursuit of self interest and “not-in-my-backyard syndrome” are some of the reasons why politicians and government officials shirk from responsibilities without realizing the consequences.
Successive governments in Nigeria have toyed with the idea of five-year development plans since the early 1970s however much of it remains on paper rather than real objects that can be seen around the country. Even network of federal highways, bridges, airports, educational institutions and hydroelectric plants that were irked out from those development plans have over time been neglected and fallen into disrepair.
In recent years since advent of democratic governance we have heard political agendas and most recently the so-called 7-point agenda enunciated by administration of President Yar Adua. Two years and counting you wonder if there are any specific timelines tied to the deliverables, because there’s yet to be any remarkable shift in the areas outlined in the agenda; including power supply, poverty alleviation, peace and security, employment and food security.
Under current administration we hear that most federal ministries deploy only 20-30% of budgeted capital expenditure within stipulated time-frame. Recent report published by Chatham House research think-tank in London revealed that over $20 billion of potential investments initiated through oil-for-infrastructure deals with Asian investors during Obasanjo’s administration might have been lost due to policy summersaults by current administration.
The $8 billion railway rehabilitation project signed by previous government was recently canceled for reasons that are incomprehensible, so also sale of Port Harcourt refinery to private investors in twilight days of Obasanjo era was reversed; yet imported refined petroleum products remain scarce and expensive. How and when is Nigeria going to make up for all this lost opportunities and at what cost?
Progress Takes Time, But…
Progress in a seemingly backward society like Nigeria you might say could require time to take hold, but Lagos State under Governor Fashola seem to be defying the odds and delivering results in a timely manner – what lesson can we discern from this? That scarcity of funds or adherence to due process shouldn’t be excuse why development is slow or minimal – inertia and inefficient time-management by decision-makers are key contributing factors.
Ajeokuta Steel Plant was first conceived in the 1960s, yet by 2009 it is still not operational despite huge sums of money spent. The same goes for several steel rolling mills. Epileptic power supply has been well-known fact of life and despite efforts by last administration to build new power plants, the problem persists and remains intractable, as funds spent can’t be accounted for. The same applies to dilapidated road networks – Lagos-Benin Expressway, Niger bridge and other existing infrastructures such as the Murtala Mohammed airport, Nigerian railway network and teaching hospitals that have direct impact on well-being and advancement.
The net cost of delayed projects is usually enormous, both in terms of lost economic productivity, higher price-tag for completion and set-back on human development. At average annual inflation rate of 15-20 percent, cost of projects is bound to double every 4-5 years, often in lesser time. The same applies to prices of vital raw materials - steel, cement, refined petroleum products, plants/equipments, machinery etc.
Inability to capitalize on current high oil prices, leverage accumulated external reserves or harness democratic dividend in an era of emerging and cheaper technology will deprive the country the chance of actualizing its potential in coming decades and render Vision-2020 and Millennium Development Goals (MDG) as mere utopia.
To compound the problems, citizens are just not sitting around and waiting for socio-economic progress to materialize. Delay in improving lives can be quite frustrating resulting in pent-up anger, which often is expressed violently as we saw in Niger Delta, re-occurring religious uprising in the North and incessant kidnapping that has taken national center-stage.
Restiveness in Niger Delta since 2006 has cost Nigeria over $12 billion by official estimate leading to shut-in of over 25 percent of oil production and declining natural gas supply. This is happening in the face of urgent need for financial resources and natural gas to boost electricity supply while capitalizing on high oil prices in the global market. Was more decisive and timely action taken to address concerns and foster development in those regions, Nigerian might have avoided the resultant exorbitant cost today.
…The Cost of Time
Impoverished citizens could simply run out of patience to wait and see projects completed and translated into improved life for themselves and their families. As more people are added to overall population there is increased pressure on meager resources and available amenities with dire consequences.
According to United Nations prognosis, Nigeria’s population is projected to surpass 200 million by 2025, making Nigeria one of the ten most populous countries on earth. Now imagine the human toll and societal cost, assuming pace of development today is not accelerated to meet this higher demographic pressure.
So ultimately the problem wont be only about corruption or due process, even though those vices exact serious strain on national psyche, I might add that improved efficiency, pace and quality of decisioning by policy-makers in Nigeria today will go a long way in meeting urgent needs and catalyzing economic growth. Delayed projects or deferred decisions will be as wasteful and detrimental to Nigeria as money stolen.
As process of nation-building continues if decisions and practical actions on key development projects are not implemented expeditiously then chances of progress become diminished and more costly - a stitch in time they say saves nine.
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