Continued from (Part II)

t is possible by now some of the readers might be talking about the title of this series, what Mathematics got to do with confusion, terror and chaos. In fact there is a whole lot. Unfortunately, the mindset in the developing communities remain essentially analog while the rest of the progressive world has gone digital. The ability to imagine and conceptualize in terms of numbers has value towards improved rational thinking and behavior modification. To be rational means there is a sense of that concept not only in terms of pattern and size but also the logic deriving there from. When logic can be migrated into a measurable quantity, the opportunity is created for abstraction to become reality, thereby unleashing latent creativity that ultimately empowers human action.

advertisement

Those days when Mathematics used to be limited to memorizing formulae and crunching numbers are over. It might sound cruel to say the world of the local champs, the so-called experts running the affairs of government and people in the 21st century has yet to advance beyond the realm of the "Slide Rule" and "Logarithmic Table". The implication here is not that the same people knew what the referenced math tools were at the time or ever used any in their days at school. The fact is that too many of them remain functionally illiterate in a 21st Century environment, controlling what they have little capacity to manage.

The development of the computer eventually put mathematics into its proper perspective; it has succeeded in advancing knowledge base and opportunities available for controlling and managing diverse and more complex societies; in doing all that, it has also exposed the level of ignorance and self-denial prevailing in the market place of competitive ideas; those usurping or claiming power and authority by force of arms or through manufactured political activism arrive at the portal unprepared for neither. The same people spend time winging the process on a trial and error basis relying on Mr. "Goodluck"; if he comes, fine, if not, the attempt is well made and what happens, happens. The reality is also the conviction that the interactive processes controlling structure, space and change can no longer be ignored or taken for granted. Applied Mathematics, starting from a process and building into analysis, ultimately leads to a conclusion, meaning the solution. In other words any problem has to have a solution to be relevant to the specific human need; otherwise it degenerates, feeding itself into confusion, chaos and crisis. When human beings are oriented towards solving problems, they ultimately become empowered. When they choose to create problems, they equally end up creating more victims and extensive reactionaries. Thus, problem solvers could be said to be intrinsically mathematical; however, for the trouble-makers, it is essentially counterintuitive to remain preoccupied in the cocoon as harbingers of terror and purveyors of confusion and chaos. Thus, those who cannot solve problems cannot be architects and builders of a progressive society.

Sometimes problems are solved through sorting and organizing. A simple illustration of the process might be easy by imagining the localization of the four cardinal points, north, south, east and west. This imagination is easily translated on paper in two dimensions and represented as x, y, -x and -y (positive x, positive y, negative x and negative y). Let the assumption be that the natural order of prioritizing issues that commonly affect rational decision making process is based on two basic considerations. For the sake of keeping the discussion simple, the assumption would be that part of the human brain sensitized for rational thinking is the same coded blue.

It is the same part from which comes the "Blue Print". Any document called "Blue Print" is regarded as authentic, what in digital parlance becomes the "Hard Copy", the original. In a two dimensional module, the clearing house question would be binary and essentially linear: Is it important? Is it urgent? It is true that doing stupid things is not necessarily the same as being stupid, although one might complement the other. Intelligent people can still do stupid things under certain controlling circumstances. That outcome would be no less authentic, just as the Blue Print from the crazy. However, subjecting oneself to the prescriptive clearing house questions would neither prevent stupid actions from occurring nor guarantee they would not. The questions serve as a management tool to allow the logic of consideration to play the devil's advocate in support of what one wise man calls "I, me and myself". Thus, when mistakes are made, rather than crying for self-pity, the resolve is to take full responsibility for the outcome accompanying the original action, the Blue Print. If for instance, the suicide bomber did not die trying or in accomplishing his mission, he would tell his captors to kill him anyway to attain martyrdom in fulfillment of the original mission. That mission would be the solemn appointment with death for himself and his prospective victims. On the contrary the responsibility of the victims who survive would be to continue living, figuring out the best way to contain the aftermath of their experience in the immediate and on the long term.

In furthering this illustration, let the positive x direction or axis represent IMPORTANT; the positive y axis represents URGENT; negative x axis represents NOT IMPORTANT; negative y axis represents NOT URGENT. The next step would be to undertake a graphical annotation by plotting specific events within the four quadrants herein identified in a clockwise order, as northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest. Thus any event-controlled idea or situation plotting anywhere within the northeast quad would mean the situation so generated is so IMPORTANT, it also demands an URGENT attention and action. Similarly, any event-controlled issue or activity located in the southeast quad is IMPORTANT but NOT URGENT. The southwest quad controls events considered NOT IMPORTANT and NOT URGENT. To the northwest, all events plotting therein are URGENT but NOT IMPORTANT. This graph presents a clear picture in terms of demand and attention. Given such a picture which quad of activity spectrum would present the most difficult trend, binary and linear? Obviously everything in the northeast is IMPORTANT and URGENT.

This mode of sequence and operational demand would be synonymous with fighting a fire; it would be a crisis mode normally requiring emergency response action; everything likely to go wrong is simply going wrong but at the same time. More often than not, the resources and facilities for dealing with a crisis situation are normally in short supply. The level of expertise needed is usually lacking. In a real life experience, a terrorist attack or a fundamentalist uprising would rightly plot in this quad. Operating along the northwest-southeast axis would imply there is a margin of built-in safety within which organization and rational thinking would prevail. It is also identified as the relatively SAFE ZONE of awareness and preparedness conducive for gathering the tools ahead of intervention, containment and management. It is essentially the zone of empowerment, allowing for the choice between what is URGENT and what is IMPORTANT; avoiding the collusion course diminishes the chances of dealing with both elemental and parametric contingencies simultaneously. As easily depicted from the graph, the northeast-southwest axis has limited options and hence reduced degrees of freedom for avoiding crisis. Problems plotting along this axis are URGENT/IMPORTANT, or NOT URGENT/NOT IMPORTANT.

For a real-time experience, imagine heading into the Third Mainland Bridge in Lagos during "Rush Hour" expecting the traffic to be through, unimpeded. Unfortunately, most problems confronting Nigerians both as individuals, as a group and ultimately as a country are addressed along this axis of perpetual crisis. The irony is that Nigeria is one country that never owns a fire hydrant but always building skyscrapers prone to fires and for which all functions are ill-prepared, ill-disposed and ill-equipped to fight.

A review of the politics and economics of oil, another vital area of victim empowerment, further exposes the leading trends in crisis management. In doing so, it is also pertinent to elicit a cursory comparative attention to Saudi Arabia. The Nigerian Muslims visit that kingdom regularly to perform the Hajj and in compliance with their faith obligations. The Muslim North in particular shares a special kinship with that Arab country, united in creed and fundamental beliefs. Nigeria is also a corporate member of the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC). It is therefore actively engaged in a multi-national union and association with Saudi Arabia, sharing important economic ties including membership of the Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC); that organization is supposedly beneficial to the associated member countries. There is always one argument or another to be made to support or to oppose Nigeria's continuing membership in OPEC, and more so in the OIC, the merits, demerits and justifications notwithstanding.

The point of order at the moment demands this question be asked: Besides any faith-based influences, the least of which would not be the "Wahhabi Ecumenism", what really has the Muslim North learned from Saudi Arabia that would be said to have contributed positively to the economic well-being of the people of Nigeria, the North Country in particular? In his December 19, 2008 contribution to the Nigeriaworld, Dr. Malcolm Fabiyi inadvertently tried to answer part of this question. By "contextualizing & Addressing the Almajirai Challenge" he attempted to explain why the North Country Muslims are not "really so different". In his analysis of the underlying historical perspectives, the learned one also outlined in mixed terms, the reasons why the Islamic faith has also intersected with the politics of the differing peoples of the North and ultimately the economic life of the masses, the Talakawas and the faith-based foot-soldiers, the Almajirai. Dr. Fabiyi specifically addressed the ideological culture mandating "that young boys between the ages of 5 and 15 leave their homes to take up residence in Tsanaya - (Hausa for Qur'anic schools)". These schools are essentially the same in function and content with the notorious "Madrassa", the Islamic religious schools as found in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The concern would not be about teaching the kids Islamic verses and doctrine; in an attempt to avoid western influence, the kids are essentially shielded from academic literary scholarship; preference is given to the Taliban Ideology, how to make war with the infidels. That ideology is the core teaching of "Wahhabism", the puritanical concept of Islamic principles that nurtures anger, militancy and fundamentalism directed at people considered non-believers; the same unbelievers are being held responsible for scandalizing and corrupting the world, an offence punishable by death. Saudi Arabia remains the custodian of Wahhabism, exporting, sponsoring and promoting it around the world. The North Country got lots of ampoules of Wahhabi tonic over the years and much of the brew still remains on the shelves ready to be mixed with the Tsanaya Kool-Aid. On another score, Saudi Arabia operates the largest oil company in the world. ARAMCO derives its acronym from its prior association with American operators as early as 1933 when it was known as Arabian American Oil Company. In 1988 it was nationalized and became fully owned by the Saudi government.

Similarly, Nigeria operates its own oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). A similar question could be asked: What has the NNPC learned from the world's largest oil company over these years?

On Sunday December 7, 2008, 60 Minutes, the weekly magazine program offered by the Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) took a trip to Saudi Arabia. All those who watched the program presented by Leslie Stahl also came along on that trip. It was a visit with the Saudi Oil Minister and the spotlight on ARAMCO, what is going on at the world's largest conglomerate. The company headquarters could be said to be bigger than "Agwalagwa" meaning it is a mockery to talk about humongous. With an operating budget of over $781 Billion per annum, the office complex is enough fit for the size. It was perhaps much more interesting than it was intriguing to find young Saudi nationals, engineers, technologists and technicians at the head of the controls. The giant computer network operating system relayed in real time, information and production data from the oil fields. The data control and processing units made it possible to know how many wells are under production, how many are being drilled and how deep. This battery of Saudi work-force was still clad in its all white robe and wraps of head gear. Everybody probably prayed five times a day even while at work, reciting the same or similar verses from the Holy Book. The presentation was essentially a colored picture of 21st century professionals looking ahead for many more opportunities that have yet to unfold. The paradox as was observed by Miss Stahl is the fact that Saudi Arabia is functioning within the scope of that kind of 21st century modernization and still co-existing alongside ancient customs and Islamic tenets, principles and beliefs.

The women are still prevented from driving cars except foreign workers residing in the American enclave city reserved for Western values and practices. The Oil Minister, Al Naimi summed up the situation this way: "Oil is the gift of God, the recovery of oil is the work of many". Thus, the government of Saudi Arabia, its spiritual leadership whose authority is vested in the Kingdom, realizes it needs the expertise of foreign nationals who are not only bringing technical skills, expertise and knowledge but also habits and practices essentially incompatible with Islamic protocols, principles and moral values. The Saudis are not insisting that alcohol be banned in the American enclave city or that those America housewives would not drive vehicles to pick up their kids from kinder schools or go grocery shopping. They have chosen to zone their ideas within compliance boundaries in the interest of shared values in their cherished community.

The most interesting aspect of the interview came with the revelation of what Saudi Arabia is doing to address the world's financial crisis and consequently the falling price of oil. As a prominent member of OPEC, the oil minister was not holding back; he rather chose to highlight the various steps his country is taking at the cartel to stabilize oil price. Al Naimi confirmed his country is clearly aware it would not be in its or the OPEC members' continuing and long-term collective interest for America to reduce its dependency on "imported oil". Thus stabilizing the oil market on the long-term to avoid quickening the pace of alternative technology search towards reducing oil consumption would be the best strategy.

The oil minister's prediction that America was not likely to find the solution to imported oil in the next 30 years remained a just hedged bet. Rather than marking time, the Saudi Oil Minister was focused on articulating a vision for his country to weather the tide for the moment and to remain actively involved, engaged for the long-term as a major player in the world oil politics.

Accordingly, Saudi's economic fortunes in years ahead would have to depend essentially on the choices the minister and his team are currently making. It is hardly surprising then how much weight is being placed on non-oil related energy sector and portfolio. In that regard, the Saudi government has taken a leap forward in assurance of fate, ahead of innovative development projects in Solar Technology. With the amount of sunshine days in the Arabian Desert, promoting solar technology would be considered particularly significant. With all considered, the minister predicted his country would be a major exporter of Gigawatts (GW) of energy in no distant future (I GW is equivalent to I billion watts).

It is not clear how best to gauge the reaction of any Nigerian who must have watched this program. The first guess would be an emotional reawakening in shock therapy. "Whoa! Where has my country been?" Surely, many of those "Asokoro Residents" in Abuja, the top-guns of Nigeria who live in the U.S. by night would no doubt be awake at 2 o'clock wee hours Monday morning, local time, watching the program from their satellite dishes. They heard the Saudi Oil Minister but then what? Could this Saudi "Blue Print" become a viable template for Nigeria? In providing the answer, the interview essentially became Nigeria's homework assignment, perhaps the only justification for staying sleepless in Abuja. To imagine Nigeria and its North Country government would need Leslie Stahl of CBS to reveal what else good there is and coming from Saudi Arabia besides Wahabbism, Sharia and member-association in OIC is somehow frustrating. But the truth hurts very badly at times just as now.

In Obasanjo's 8-year tenure the former president appointed himself oil minister and remained in that position until he left office May 2007. President Obasanjo could not have been influenced by any similar management practice from Saudi Arabia, another OPEC member. Given that choice, what other real vision did he (Obasanjo) solicit or copy from his Saudi counterpart? Obviously, none then as none has been evident ever since. If Moses was wrong for eight years, how about the son of Moses since May 29, 2007? Perhaps, for want of evidence as to why Obasanjo and his godson marched in lockstep, blame Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, another oil chief for seeding that foul manure. Saudi Royalty with no historical precedence in operating two-in-one and one-in-two double barrel oil ministry would have nothing to do with this one particular Nigerian brand. Thus, after nearly 20 months and counting, President Yar'Adua finally appointed Rilwanu Lukman, Nigeria's oil minister; Lukman becomes the first substantive"civilian" in that position in nearly 10 years.

This appointment would neither be the second nor the third missionary journey for Mr. Lukman; he has been there and done that even in the capacity of the secretary general of OPEC. With all the benefit-of-the-doubt, he must understand the wheeling and dealing within the membership, the inner-workings of that organization. What else does Lukman bring to this office in the era of the largest, most complex and lingering world financial crisis? Mr. Lukman comes from the same ever present gene pool that has produced Gamaliel Onosode, Christopher Kolade, Philip Asiodu, Sam Aluko, Umaru Dikko, Alhaji Ciroma, Prince Ajibade, Richard Akinjide, Olu Falae, Maitama Sule, Ume Ezeoke, Saraki, Shonekan, Nzeribe and so many others.

This group has also produced its mutable derivatives in the likes of Emmanuel Iwuanyanwu, Joe Irukwu, Ben Nwabueze, Anenih, Ibrahim Gambari, Jibril Aminu, Jerry Gana, and the many self-decorated generals and military officers who served in the age of Gowon, Murtala Muhamed, Obasanjo, Buhari, Babangida and Abacha.

It would not be very fair to trivialize the issues of concern by dwelling on their personal integrity beyond what is known and evident, based on the role they have played in controlling the many events and circumstances that have shaped and continue to reshape the politics of One Nigeria. Questions regarding the integrity of such roles, either in terms of personality, personal standing or competency and performance in the various positions serving themselves and Nigeria have to be left to history whenever written or told.

In the here and now discussion, it is equally true to say, Nigeria's overall bill of quantities and chronic health conditions and the plight of its peoples over the years have not necessarily improved under their care and stewardship; otherwise why have all the "Yesterdays" continued to be better than beholding the "Todays" of Nigeria? The answer to this question does not imply every Nigerian should have a sense of entitlement simply based on the expectation of an ultimate and guaranteed success in a life-cycle. On the contrary, the country is where it is, good or bad and more, not necessarily because these individuals occupied respective positions just as many others before them. Singling any of them out as individuals or as a collective for the ills that have befallen Nigeria and continuing, would tend to exonerate many others, including the Nigerian peoples, who stood by and watched their country burn. The responsibilities taken by the forbearers are as equally palpable; notwithstanding, the referenced group could take credit for everything good and wonderful that happened on its watch except there are not too many to go around and be accounted for and be celebrated. For everything done right and all others done wrong, the system collectively built by these individuals has also rewarded them handsomely, whether or not they deservedly earned the trust and goodwill of Nigerians. Obviously many or all of them have received and continue to receive the county's highest awards of recognition and honor by successive "grateful" governments. It is time to hand them over the remaining gold watches and allow them to stand back and be counted as registered senior citizens ready for the museum of history. Nigeria would not seem to be moving forward, perhaps hoping to "go far together and quickly" by recycling the same drivers along this long, rough and tedious yet to be tested new terrain. The rules of engagement have changed and continue to change just as the rest of the world; Nigeria needs a new team of technically skilled experts, realizing the analog, the age of Slide Rule and Log Table is gone. But who is really listening?

While the Saudi children are praying, they are also learning to become scientists and engineers. The Nigerian kid in the North Country is praying as much and as long as it takes to beg for alms on the streets; he is one among them perpetuating what Dr. Fabiyi has called "this specter of an organized band of destitute children". What is the government doing to address the plight of this young fellow who is where he is for no direct fault of his? Incidentally help is on the way and supposedly so. President Yar'Adua is one of his own, Obasanjo has left the platform, the stadium and uncle Rilwani is now in-charge. Unfortunately, and quite true to form, the same "sound of music" is still being heard, coming from the Nigerian theater of the absurd. While Saudi Arabia is advancing Solar Technology, Nigeria is choosing to go nuclear, planning the construction of about eight nuclear power plants. How this plan eventually ends up bringing hope and relief to the particular Tsanaya kid and his kind remains one token imagination and only in Nigeria. That imagination will be exercised in the next segment.

To be continued---

Continued from (Part I)