o Ndi-Igbo across the land of Biafra, the cessation of gun fire was never marked by a singular event, certainly not the Obasanjo-Effiong surrender parade. The shooting war came to an end when it did, a continuum filled with lull, both the expected and the unexpected, and yet seemingly too uncertain to behold. There is any number of adjectives that could have aptly described the mood of the people at the time, their mixed feelings including the display of rustic emotions. The list could have made the canvass, plastered and unsorted, along the entire stretch of the Niger Bridge, beginning with: mournful, depressed, pensive, regrettable, sad, saddening, dejected, sorrowful, downcast, frustrated, gloomy, and leading into a state characterized by its own sullenness and frequent outburst of violent rage and anger. The many returning soldiers still suffering from shell-shock or the sudden withdrawal syndrome from war noise and fatigue suddenly found themselves abandoned by their own. No particular situation ever made survival mandatory; the true meaning of each case remained tenuous, a one-day- at-a-time affair; each day brought into foggy view what hope could mean only if and when another dawn came with sunrise and held its own until sunset; it was gladdening only if it also turned out to be uneventful. The new lease on life was rather too surreal to be true, especially to a people unsure who else controlled the title of that lease besides the Good Lord. Prayer had gotten them that far and so far.

advertisement

That uncertainty could be left to the imagination, but only a few could think straight let alone imagine; however, if the preceding 30 months provided any key to the immediate present and whatever the future would hold from thence, the fear of the unknown presented a more ominous outlook, the specter of dreadful experiences yet to unfold. With every tinge of good feeling came its share of subdued happiness; having joy, cheers and smiles was like learning to walk anew or be adrift into some dance steps relying on rusty reflexes; not too long hitherto, a hearty laughter could mean spurring on the federal troops lurking in the woods in the neighborhood and into action. What would have become the ultimate abandonment as in a euphoric pleasure even if momentarily, eventually lacked its pathological value; thus, the feeling of happiness without really being happy became part of the contradictions of life in the aftermath. Notwithstanding the prevailing signs of impending doom and gloom, someone somewhere coined the expression, perhaps an attempt to lighten the burden of worry on the faces of the returnees. "Happy Survival" was the lead greeting everywhere.

Nobody knew exactly who started what, let alone its real and true meaning except for the desired purpose; the feel-good expression of pleasantry was in itself as fulfilling to the extent it tended to displace the shroud of melancholy one place and person at a time. As people gathered wherever possible to recount the war stories and share painful experiences, "Happy Survival" became the mantra for an enduring faith; it had the effect of uplifting the spirits of the many wounded hearts, enabling them reclaim lost grounds to begin the healing process towards self-actualization; in doing so they essentially relied on sheer determination, the willingness to continue and not give up. Every where people were seen slapping palms, hugging and holding out with occasional clutched fists and open arms-in-lock, communal and group therapy seemed fully engaged. The popular "Highlife" musician, Celestine Ukwu seized the moment; the album, "Umu Nnem Happy Survival" topped the charts within weeks of its release.

The Philosopher's Exponent had created the anthem for the people; the singing was more to the glib, still masking the deep-seated agony for the dysphoric still nursing an enormous pain with an innate consuming rage. "Happy Survival" elicited the voice of hope instilling the sense of purpose in those alive to see the end of the war. Quitting was therefore not an option if their continuing existence meant keeping faith in that divine promise. The challenge was not necessarily how to return but how to live in Nigeria.

Now roll the same rusty dice or dial forward almost 40 years from that celebration to yet another "Police Action", the War of the Mangroves. The news from all corners of Nigeria and beyond has it; the militants have finally given up, accepting amnesty for the surrender-pledge to become ordinary "Bloody Civilians" one more time. Is it really true that Victor Ebikabowei Ben, the one and only "General Boyloaf, Mr. Government himself, Chief Ekpemupolo "Tompolo", Farah Dagogo, Ateki Tom, Henry Okah, General Marco Martins Meboye and Alhaji Dokubo Asari, the celebrated chieftains of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) and their followers have finally shed their toga of resistance? How are these folks feeling right at this moment? There has been some demonstration going on and all in tandem in Benin, the Edo capital and Yenagoa in Bayelsa state. The governors of both states are said to be holding brief for the federal "unitary" government, struggling with bare hands, trying to keep the lid on to avoid releasing further raging steam. Judging by the early warning signs, and the familiar "conditionality" that trails any state-sponsored organized crime and chaos, there is enough "Frustration" to go around; but the militants are said to be "Repentant". It is rather difficult to assess and determine the degree and extent of this patented emotional crisis. "Frustration" as prevailing is not only within the rank and file of the former fighters but also those charged with setting up the public institution seemingly contrived in haste, but essentially ill-equipped to deal with the issues and matters arising.

In the spirit of the amnesty, both the government functionaries and the former militants have been joined in a common cause; they have since become equally as "Repentant" and as "Frustrated". Assuming the Biafrans were more frustrated than they were repentant to their sole cause, would such a difference as currently unfolding endure the test of time for a country where every teachable moment is never retroactive but always in the present? Imagine the nightmare that followed Biafrans who stood in line all day to receive 20 Nigerian Pounds offered by the then junta government in lieu of bank deposits left in Nigeria at the wake of the civil war. That experience 40 years later might provide some cautionary reflection, the great expectation of purpose for those billed to receive compensatory allowance due to them for challenging by use of force, the institution of brutality and power.

When the end came to Biafra, the Nigerian government then declared there was "No Victor, No Vanquished". The same government promised the three Rs, Reintegration, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction. Again nearly 40 years since that promise, take a trip to the former Biafran enclave, the present day Southeast and the Niger Delta, take an inventory and make bold to tell the world what you find. Travel by the best luxury bus, choose the ABC transport service from Lagos to Enugu; and then veer south towards Port-Harcourt. Before the war, this Lagos-Enugu-Port-Harcourt traverse would take about 8 hours; today it is essentially 2-day obstacle training in endurance, faith and penance. Given all the reasons the same federal government of the same imperial order is promising another set of triple Rs. The new word smith is Rehabilitation, Reintegration and Reassurance.

But the militants must first facilitate the big "D" the act of surrender, call it "Demobilization", guaranteed by a government brokered "Amnesty", the "Give-me-my-own-take" truce. Again, returning ok, but living in Nigeria?

Reports from Port-Harcourt confirm the most common expression raining all over town. "Give Peace a Chance" could not pass for propaganda because both government and the militants are tired; men and material have been lost in a struggle not only lacking in clarity and focus but also in its definition of purpose. Nonetheless, fighting has been going on with each theater of occupation assuming its own character in carnage; disruption of life and property and its impact both in human, material and opportunity have affected all concerned Nigerians and foreign interests alike. Many have been kidnapped, maimed, assaulted and killed. The survivors are also among the victims caught in the middle and held hostage against their will by violence; the creek boys are seeking revenge for the sins they strongly believe have been committed against their fathers by every irresponsible government they have come to know. "Give Peace a Chance" has ultimately become the expressed validation of a common feeling for the Niger Delta inhabitants serving in purpose and value, the "Happy Survival" moment in post-war Biafra. Just as it was then, as it is now, everyone is speaking in the single tongue, the market women, shopkeepers, taxi drivers, bricklayers, all and sundry. The housewives have never been known to be skeptics, certainly not under the prevailing situation; they surely do not doubt the real meaning of this momentous outcome, the end of a lingering emergency; however they still remain ambivalent; their husbands are most likely bound to return to the old late night habit as soon as the curfew is lifted, clubbing until the second cock.

Apparently the war of the mangrove swamps seems to be over but expediently so; but somehow and for whatever reasons the unfinished business remains compelling; something is still burning in the hearts and minds of those who choose the time-tested option and viable course for earning respect, ultimately the attention of an obnoxious power structure. One Nigeria has been that unfortunate child of such circumstances. Nonetheless, there appears to be joy in the air; some rejoicing is going on certainly not quite as cheery in the so-called but still few rehabilitation centers; however, the ordinary folks seem to find all the reasons to watch the celebrated warlords mount center stage at the various surrender ceremonies. These head honchos have emerged instant heroes amongst their people, obviously holding court in their respective sectors of operation. They have become symbols of decentralized power in the region; with "Warlordism" so entrenched, the true meaning and purpose of surrender would remain purely ceremonial, a mere window-dressing, too cosmetic for the price of beauty. Each group has chosen to showcase its foot soldiers dressed in surrender outfits; they seem to have traded camouflage for an all flowing white gown; incidentally, no white pigeons and no olive branches. The TV audience and the rest of Nigerians would never know the significance of those surrender gabs, until when revealed by the chief priest at the benediction. Following the cleansing ceremony, consecration and atonement, by which the fighters sought permission from the gods of the mangrove to hit the purse button they emerged from the jungle different than they entered. They came out bearing all kinds of war implement, the kind in number, sophistication and brand, never before seen in Nigeria since the last big one. The assortment includes rocket-propelled grenades, AK-47s, explosives of all sorts and kinds, ammunitions, even gun-boats.

If these massive cache of arsenals and weapons of mass killing in all their glory mean anything, they tell part of the story still unfolding before Nigerians and the rest of the world. To the uninitiated, asking the real question might not be soon enough, or perhaps it could be too early to know how the combatants acquired these deadly weapons in the first place. Certainly the Niger Delta seems to have produced too many "Generals" but not enough "Captains" but then, who was the head of the ordinance brigade? Who paid for these weapons? Finding all the accomplices might eventually lead to the quartermaster-general known only by those directing traffic from the Nigeria military headquarters. If any of the warlords ever opened his mouth too wide to tell all, he would be joining Alhaji Yusuf, the leader of the "Boko Haram" Islamic militants. Last June that group stormed various cities in the North Country; gun-fire was raging for days; in the end the streets and neighborhoods were painted red with human and animal blood, bones and human parts. The Alhaji was arrested and he began to sing like the canary revealing his connections including sponsors of violence. As the head wind appeared to be blowing all the smoke and dust back to the corridors of government house, Alhaji was stopped on his track. In a blink, the man was shot dead, ultimately buried with the rest of the story. Meantime, the return of "Deadly Weapons" as orchestrated in propaganda and value has turned into the "Show and Tell" event of all time; it has been full of glamour and display, with an alluring spectacle, call it the panorama of "Reality TV", the best to come out of Africa since the skull exhibits from Rwanda.

The purchase of this uneasy "Peace" just as its bartered equivalent, the sale of "Amnesty" to Niger Delta would endure to the extent the militants find comfort knowing they still have a second chance. But what would that chance mean in a country whose leadership keeps records of agreements on rolls of toilet paper? Amnesty means President Yar'Adua and his imperial castle have the power to forgive sins. Rehabilitation means the same order has the power to heal afflictions not just for the militants but also the entire people of the Niger Delta and the rest of Nigerians. But which one of these powers is most desirable? How relevant are such imperial powers inherently lacking in constitutional authority and mandate towards resolving the concerns of Nigerians, especially the victims of years of oppression and suppression across the land? Reassurance would equally mean more "Hope and prayer" to the extent the people can still sleep with one eye open believing peace really has a chance until when disturbed and awakened by "Iyanga".

For all the reasons known and unknown MEND has not stopped testing the sincerity of government whose future has the half-life of now. The Niger Delta umbrella fighting force, has requested representation in mediation. Its "Aaron Team" as carefully chosen includes Vice Admiral Okhai Mike Akhigbe (rtd), Maj.-Gen. Luke Kakadu Aprezi (rtd), Prof. Sabella Ogbobode Abidde, Prof. Wole Soyinka (observer) and Mrs. Annkio Briggs (liaison officer). Whatever the distance these Nigerians have had to travel to earn MEND's trust would not be as important as the group's implied determination to abide by the outcome of a negotiated settlement. MEND strongly believes its team of experts possesses enough integrity and enduring capacity to remain fully engaged at the table until the complex vexing issues affecting the Niger Delta and the rest of Nigeria are fully addressed and eventually resolved. Reasonable people leading a responsible government would consider such an opening fully ajar and enough for the return of sanity in the land; unfortunately for a country blessed with an imperial leadership with the brain of an ant in the midst of plenty, enough would never be enough.

Talk about a government that treats the right opportunity like a sore; otherwise how would anybody explain holding a so-called "Amnesty Seminar" in Kaduna barely a week after the surrender ceremonies? Could it be Yar'Adua is seeking concurrence from his northern power base to make good on the terms and conditions of surrender and amnesty? Only the real Nigerians know the answer. But before the rest of them are let into the secret of surrender, it might be pertinent to learn more about what government is doing to understand what it is certainly not doing to solve and resolve the Niger Delta problem.

The minister of defense, Major-Gen. Godwin Abe (rtd) has since been appointed chairman of the Amnesty Implementation Program (AIP), another layer of government bureaucracy. The federal "unitary" government has also established Inter Agency Coordinating Committee on Amnesty (IACC) headed by Air Vice-Marshall Lucky Ararile. Remember for the record, the Niger Delta Development Commission (NNDC) has been there even before the Obasanjo crusaders left the church gate. The Ministry of the Niger Delta came after Yar'Adua's bedside vision while performing that first Hajj in Saudi Arabia. Before this new and improved AIP and IACC, there was the Niger Delta Technical Committee (NDTC) set up by government to establish the "remote and immediate causes" of instability; it was also charged with providing guidance towards institutionalizing specific remedial measures for stemming youth and communal restiveness in the region. That committee has since submitted its report with a number of recommendations. Like every other report of any commission ever set up by any government in power (AGIP), and in the true spirit of One Nigeria, "Whatever will be will be"; that attribute would be consistent with Prophet Aremu's "Kampe principles" in keeping with what has come to be known as the "Nigerian milieu". The abiding faith in One Nigeria has been the willingness to do nothing with every opportunity believing in the ideality, the end justifying the means and ultimately relying on "This one shall pass too" philosophy. In essence, if the owners and leaders of One Nigeria are not busy tempting God, they are seriously playing one and certainly on reality TV. Unfortunately the Niger Delta and its problems are not going away any time soon. Nigeria and the Niger Delta are exactly where the book-makers predicted the burning issues would be joined.

The restive youths and their ranks have since graduated from being "Militants" to being called post-amnesty, "Freedom Fighters". The AIP chairman has no clear idea how many of them have actually come out of hiding to embrace this new dog food called "Amnesty". A bunch of "His Master's" voices place the number at 15,000. The truth lies between the unknown and the unknowable. Gen. Abe plans to register and issue all of them with ID cards before sending them to "Rehabilitation Centers". There is even the suggestion that the "carded" returnees should be sent to leadership training course in Sherri Hills near Jos. To believe a group of young men holding its own in the jungle, keeping the Nigerian military at bay for this number of years lack organizational power and leadership skills for which going to Sherri Hill would become necessary is telling indeed. Obviously too many in leadership of that country have arrested development; the adults are missing in action while the children are at play. The militants cum freedom fighters have their clientele and constituency, essentially a bunch of illiterates, semi-illiterates, under-educated, semi-educated and somewhat educated. They are generally informed about their mission; each sector command has its own jurisdictional scope; their goals are not necessarily defined by the common vision of a united front. Jungle warfare thrives more in gorilla attack aimed at inflicting maximum harm on the enemy with minimum effort. That effort is by no means less lethal or less effective.

Some of the federal troops still alive today know better to recount their experiences. Invariably, the jungle training and regimen of the militants are definitely unconventional. Would that fact mean the fighters themselves are generically and inherently stupid? The Nigerian government would be making its worst mistake yet to think or imagine so. Contrary to that reality, those in government circles suggesting training at the Sherri Hill must be called out; they are acutely stupid.

How would government rehabilitate this group of folks who have been schooled and have since graduated in violent civil uprising? The National Assembly is said to have voted about N10 billion (approximately $65 million). Part of this money is earmarked for payment of allowances to the militants. It is still unclear how much the foot-soldiers will receive. What about the "Generals", are they receiving theirs in lump sum? How long would this payment arrangement last? These questions do not make any sense for the Amnesty Implementation chairman winging it along the way and as long as the money lasts. Allowance must be made for incidentals, including the "man-no-be-wood" aspect, officially known as "Security Budget". In his own right, the presidential adviser on petroleum matters, Dr. Emmanuel Egbogah recently announced the Nigerian government would allocate 10% of the revenue accruable from its joint venture arrangement with the international oil companies. An estimated return of about N50 billion (approximately $338 million) from this plan, would go directly to the oil producing communities. How directly is direct? The state governors and the local government officials are said to be excluded from "Direct" disbursement. To reach the people, would mean going through the traditional rulers, the Amayanagbos, the Jajas and the Obongs and the Obis. What about the warlords who put their lives on the line to cause the government to blink ten times? The Tompolos and the Dokubos and the rest of the "Generals" of hidden army are still waiting to know what is in store for troops' comfort and routine upkeep. Who gets what? What is the formula for sharing "Amnesty" money? Would the 10% fund replace the source of allowance to the foot-soldiers? What becomes of the Ministry of the Niger Delta and the NNDC? Beautiful Government! The creek boys now have something more concrete to fight for. Certainly $338 million is enough to stir up the real food fight in the swamp.

The rest of the country has a bunch of dust-laden feet running around the neighborhood. The experts think over 23 million of them, youths ranging in age between 18 and 35 years are unemployed. This number excludes the many in the rural areas and burrows living in squalor and disease. The North Country has over the years been the breeding ground, one generation after another of beggars and destitutes. The South has most of its under-class living on the streets, hawking anything and everything. The rest reside in the villages; they are not doing better either. They wake up late, get to the market square to join the club; there they drink and talk local government politics and chieftaincy affairs, analyzing who is up who is down. They are the fan clubs of the rich and famous, yet too unclean to be invited to the table. However, food is ready every week-end at the burial ceremony of the one whose children have enough to "Declare Surplus". The rest of the teaming population consists of graduates and undergraduates; some of them have become perpetual students and applicants with no hope of ever finding any meaningful job, not if riding "Okada" motor-cycles or driving cabs count. The political class finds them easy and ready recruits as advance-party followers, thugs and charlatans. They are there at the behest of their masters to intimidate opponents and non-conformists.

Some of them have been linked to gangs of kidnappers and extortionists preying on members of the society considered affluent enough, invariably the opportunity targets of rich reward in ransom. Otherwise, their employment is seasonal, in 4-year cycle, when elections are won and lost, rigged for the loser, but ultimately won later and years after by the one found legitimate on court order. Cursory estimate of the unemployed and the unemployable is probably closer to 35 million. This number essentially includes the same group found in the Niger Delta for whom the "Come Chop" bell is now tolling. Thus the Niger Delta youths would get allowance not for starting a fight but for agreeing to stop; their elders and the village scions get annual allotment of $338 million for pain and suffering; all monies would be disbursed by the "Only-God-Knows- how" formula. What of the rest of the 35 million able-bodied non-soldier-potential militants who have yet to engage the government in open combat, including their parents who have lost hope of a second chance? Many people used to argue "Nigeria Is not worth dying for". It would appear Nigeria is after all worth fighting for. If still in doubt, let the people come to the Niger Delta. Incidentally offering suggestions on how to address these issues would be counter-productive, call it wasted effort for a country whose leadership remains dense, deaf and dumb. Anyhow, one thing is clear; the owners of Nigeria surely understand and appreciate war. So let the fighting begin from the beginning.