Continued from (Part III)

n the earlier Part III segment, before the Christmas holidays and celebrations, the Saudi Oil Minister gave a world tour of his ministry and what his country is doing to address the prevailing economic crisis. Mallam Al Naimi's interview with Lesley Stahl, CBS 60 Minutes Program shed light on how and why Saudi Arabia has chosen to advance its interest in Solar Technology, a non-oil energy sector of the economy. Like the proverbial green bottle fly busy chasing the corpse until it ended up entombed with the dead, the blame is never with the deaf and dumb. The Director General of the Nigerian Nuclear Energy Commission (NNEC), whatever that title means, is not only playing the green bottle fly, he is also chasing the ambulance. His agency is pushing an agenda at the Federal Executive Council (FEC), urging a body that knows little or nothing about the subject matter to approve the building and construction of 8 Nuclear Power Plants for Nigeria. There has yet to be an expert witness and/or legislative public hearing on Nigeria's power emergency; any such informed testimonial would explain why Nigeria with abundance of natural gas resources has for three decades failed to operate sustainable electric power generation but would be expected to do better with nuclear power plants. The director general has yet to tell his fellow country men and women where these nuclear plants would eventually be situated and located.

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Good parenting practices would advocate that the kid gets familiar with handling plastic toys before mounting the metal tri-cycle frame. Thus, for someone in position of authority to be talking about nuclear power plant at this moment with cubic trillions of natural gas still being flayed and wasted in various oil-fields around the Delta is not only stupid but criminal. The character and caliber of people in-charge of Nigeria and their capacity towards rational thinking, decision and vision are further revealed. Of the 160,000 youths jobs being called for by the recommendation of the Niger Delta Technical Committee (NDTC) how many of them would qualify to be hired in the nuclear power industry? The irony is that the age of recruiting a security guardsman "Megadi" who carries a pocket knife to ward off an intruder is long gone; security is very much about surveillance. The state of the art Megadi is now computer literate; he is also able to operate a biometric reader. He surely knows how to activate the central security control system in case of an emergency. For the purpose of what could work for Nigeria, he might as well be a college graduate. The rest of the technical expertise required to set foot in a nuclear power complex is surely not available from Kaduna Polytechnic or any such institution in Nigeria at the moment.

At the level of brain-drain and exodus of intellectual power that used to adorn the local ivory towers and research institutes, the development of the nuclear power industry would have to rely essentially and if not solely on foreign expertise. There is always the casual argument that those Nigerian "experts" living in other countries would be lured back to their homeland to serve. The truth of the matter is that the "Local Champs" who know little or nothing about nuclear technology would make life miserable for the returning experts. The battle of the bulge for Nigeria is essentially that of mediocrity; it cannot be won with "Federal Character and Quota System". Nuclear technology just as the fossil fuel power plant industry would not survive and thrive under such a climate or condition of service as currently known to exist in Nigeria.

To believe and imagine Nigeria would be relying on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or what the NNEC prefers to call the International Community for the technical support needed for this kind of industry would be simply naïve. The IAEA is essentially a regulatory agency; its manpower expertise is limited to compliance monitoring. The scope and level of technical, structural, logistical, operational and maintenance activities required for the nuclear power plant cannot be procured totally through overseas commissioned training either, certainly not within reasonable time frame for the construction of 8 such plants. That kind of knowledge base has to be inoculated on the home court, years ahead of startup; certain and specific training must be home grown and nurtured in select Nigerian Universities and research centers for technology transfer to be effective.

Such a transfer has to be firmly grounded in the cultural awareness of young scientists and technologists to sustain the growth of the industry. While the nuclear power plant technology has been tested and proven, it is still not available on the shelf ready for cash and carry or on plug and play. The safety issues remain the most sensitive and serious concern even among those who invented the technology still struggling to overcome specific challenges.

For the avoidance of doubt and in full disclosure for historical perspectives, Nigeria had the chance before the civil war and in the years immediately following. A good many of those scientists and technologists who built and developed the Biafran war machines survived the war. They were among the best trained experts available in any developing country of the world. Many of them attended the best Universities in the world, were classmates and colleagues to the same type of individuals who eventually transformed countries like India and Pakistan into becoming Nuclear Powers in the 20th century. Their prodigies, the young-scientists coming out of the Biafran stable were forced to retreat and escape into foreign lands; there they watched in dismay how their forebears were frustrated, humiliated and thrashed by a country bent on sustaining its war victory through open-box siege and revenge. Many of these great scientists and engineers have since been lost to attrition, others succumbed to emotional defeat and anger, decided to play underground in the basement. They have all left the scene and the glory of their expertise cannot be regained especially at the moment of the greatest need by an ungrateful country. It is anybody's guess what the history of Nigeria's quest for nuclear technology would be at this moment. But the times have changed; and Nigeria would never be the same, especially because there was Biafra.

Islamic fundamentalism, restiveness, insurgency and resurgency and political activism dominate the struggle for control of power. The competing interests in that struggle have limited chances to succeed; to the extent they do, determines the margin of safety, the vulnerability and exposure of such vital structures as the Nuclear Power Plant. How could any Nigerian politician or policy manager convince the world such a nuclear power plant would not be fodder for the world brotherhood of Al Qaeda? Obviously, there would be no such guarantee, certainly not if the IAEA has any knowledge about what goes on in and around Nigeria. It would only take less than $1 million for the head of the security unit to lead the sleeper terrorists to the spent fuel cell. That cargo would eventually materialize in a busy street of a major city somewhere as the dirty bomb the world has been waiting for. On the local level, to think that a country not able to police, control and protect oil-field platforms would be better at securing nuclear plant would be equivalent to dancing in the dark.

Doing so would be in the hope people are watching the dance just by imagining the noise of the dance steps. The irony is that no power plant location in Nigeria would be too far from Jos, Kano, Kaduna, Maidugiri, Sokoto or Bauchi, the main theater of Islamic fundamentalism, the home of Al Qaeda sympathizers. Count anywhere in the South-south region as a no-go area. The insurgent and the resurgent elements of the Delta would still be conducting unfinished business. Where then would these plants be located, Lagos, Ibadan, Abeokuta, Ondo or Akure? The Yoruba Nation has enough sense to say "not in my backyard" even with the best IAEA-sponsored environmental impact assessment and analysis. The population density and urban sprawl in the greater part of the Southeast, compounded by structural instability due to gully erosion and land slide present a nightmare scenario for locating a nuclear plant. However there is a weak link; that traditional ruler in full regalia and long horn on his head is likely to lead a delegation to Abuja to beg the President to kindly allocate one nuclear power plant in his village. Obviously, there is one huge trunk bin, bribe money, loaded with sacks of "Ghana Must Go". That largess is staying dense in the cooler waiting to be disbursed to the coalition of the greediest and the most stupid. Nigerians will know them when the time comes. It promises to be one moment all the would-be victims of an impending Chernobyl would eventually be empowered to take to the streets and make their voices heard before their last supper.

In contrast, let us join the Saudi Oil Minister one more time in taking a cursory look at his country's preferred non-oil energy sector and why such a choice would be no brainer for the mortician in Saudi Arabia but much less so for that green bottle fly in Nigeria. Solar technology relies on two basic principles, the harnessing of heat (or thermal) energy and light energy from the sun. Thus, thermal technology involves the use of special filters commonly called collectors to concentrate sun's rays on substances that can absorb heat; water and air are good examples of such substances that exhibit heat capacity. In the simplest form, especially in cold climates, that capacity becomes applicable as a source of heat in homes, offices and swimming pools. Otherwise, the heat can be processed through a device converting it into mechanical energy strong enough to turn a turbine in a magnetic field to generate electricity. Producing electricity this way is essentially as challenging and perhaps more expensive for the same quantity of electricity coming from a natural gas power plant. Why then would Saudi Arabia be interested in this type of technology? The answer is simple; the Arabian Peninsula has a large body of water with elevated ambient temperatures all year round. There is enough surface area for the installation of large utility-scale thermal plants for the generation of electricity. Thus, it is certainly not a mere pounding on the chest or an empty boast by Al Naimi to claim his country is positioning itself towards exporting Gigawatts (GW) of energy in no distant future.

Nigeria has hardly enough power supply for its teaming population to aspire towards exporting electricity. Thus the motivation and incentive to build nuclear power plants would not be about energy export. The Atlantic Ocean is located further from the arid North Country to be exclusively available for giant thermal structures, the type expected to serve the purpose in the Arabian Peninsula. Lake Chad is almost dried up. Where then would this type of Solar Technology option fit into Nigeria's power supply and energy mix?

Photovoltaic (PV) is the other aspect of solar technology often confused with the Thermal Power source. It is about generating electricity by harvesting sunlight. The PV technology relies on the semiconductor device similar in function to the microchip.

A good example of the use of microchip would be the garage door opener and or for those Nigerians driving expensive Sports Utility Vehicles (SUV), the security car key that makes that popping sound to lock or to open the car door. All the PV chip does is essentially to capture and convert sunlight directly into electricity. The electricity so produced can be utilized as needed and immediately or it can be reserved in storage for a later use. Storage can be achieved through a special battery called PV cells. The panels for capturing sunlight have become very advanced and flexible to support the required redundancy suitable for rural electrification and other place-of-use facilities. Market places and churches where Nigerians spend most of their times besides their homes, are very convenient places qualifying for the use of PV technology.

The PV technology makes it possible for electricity to be provided on a stand-alone basis just as is currently obtainable with individual power generators running on diesel or gasoline. The PV technology is already available on the shelf; it is like military meals ready to eat. It is essentially on auto-pilot for plug and play. Basic training is needed for material selection, setting and mounting of panels. PV technology accessories can be manufactured locally under license; such a license would incorporate the use of the standard semi-conductor hardware considered suitable for the Nigerian environment. There is also a great private sector opportunity, the incentive to address youth unemployment and that lingering "specter of an organized band of destitute children". It is possible to power all class rooms and laboratories in Nigeria's major Universities within one year using in-house labor and technical support from staff and students. A student would not need to major in any field of Engineering, Physics or Chemistry to qualify for cross-training and learn the basics of PV panel installation. In fact the non-college bound secondary school graduates can be trained in various aspects of the PV technology within one calendar year. Given all these cursory details, it would appear that all parts of Nigeria, north, south, east and west would have ample sunlight to justify a PV technology application promoting point-of-use strategy in rural electrification.

Why then would the Nigerian government claiming it has a serious plan to solve the energy and power supply problems facing over 140 million of its own, choose to ignore this vital link in favor of nuclear power plants? If anybody knows the reason or the answer, please tell the green bottle fly just about to commence on a suicide mission.

While still dwelling on the many issues concerning victim empowerment, the various governors and the so-called business and economic experts are said to be organizing Economic Forum. The Southeast has had one or more sessions; the South-south is planning its own. The North Country took the lead; the forum ended in good time but not before discovering Northern Nigeria was the most wretched and poor. The participants adduced every reason in the market place but ran short on the ideas of what could be done to change the plight of the people they claim to represent and speak for. The atmosphere has been all circus and more, just enough exhibitionism in exuberance to remain relevant in the Nigerian firmament. Otherwise why would a governor fresh from attending an economic forum announce a plan to establish an airline? How would such an airline empower the people, especially the youth clamoring for attention and care? No state government in Nigeria has ever succeeded in managing and operating an urban transit system, not Lagos, not former Bendel, not Oyo, not Imo. Would the claim be that failure in land transportation is no reason not to venture into the aviation sector? How many people would be employed by an Imo State-owned airline? The answer is an open book guess.

It is unfortunate that politicians and their appointed errand boys and girls tend to think of economics in terms of revenue drive and ventures that accrue income solely for those in government. Many times projects are initiated for the purpose of appropriating and disbursing public funds with absolutely no profitable returns intended for the common good but only to the extent they line the pockets of those in power. When the initiator of the project leaves office, the project is abandoned, ultimately left to wither in the vine with every other successive administration seeking its own priority agenda. The cycle of missed opportunities continues and every day someone somewhere is claiming he or she is working very hard to "Move Nigeria Forward". The speeches and posturing all amount to a lot of motion, certainly no forward movement but a lot of regression.

The irony is that the group of governors sponsoring and attending these talk shops forget any economic decisions taken at each forum can and could be overridden by the order of an Imperial President. An incumbent Prince of Aso Rock has veto power over the outcome of any political gathering anywhere in the country, especially any considered out-of-sync with the expressed policy of the Unitary Government. Efforts leading towards the economic empowerment of any section of Nigeria under currently existing political arrangement would be considered banal without specific guarantees. Those guarantees have to be anchored on the governing authority deriving from constituted allocations vested on "State Rights". As an illustration, does Governor Ohakim of Imo State have the right to establish an airline to the extent President Yar'Adua and his Federal Executive Council decide to say no? It is hard to answer that question since no governor has had to place his authority against that of the Executive President of Nigeria tested and contested in the courts of legal jurisdiction. Such a test would be a direct challenge to the Constitution.

Economic Forum and Regional Grouping necessary for unleashing the latent energy of the people cannot proceed by ignoring the major constitutional question: State Rights versus the Nigerian Federation. An issue as simple as registering a business or an enterprise requires the individual to spend time, energy and material amidst all kinds of logistical nightmares and risks heading to Abuja the country's capital. The lady who shipped a minivan with tinted glass from America had to visit the Inspector General of Police at Abuja for a waiver license. The beer parlor owner at Owerri is paying value added tax that is also benefitting the Mallam in Maiduguri leading the campaign against the sale of alcohol in his ward. These examples are not necessarily why state rights must be defined but they illustrate the overreaching powers of a unitary government functioning on a "One shoe fits all" policy. The examples also highlight the challenges imposed on Nigerians whose citizenship rights are subordinated by place of birth, the "Non-indigene" dilemma. The implications of these structural policies and their withholding capacity towards limiting and stifling economic activities cannot be fully assessed until the differences are clarified and tested.

To then turn around and ask why Nigerian small businesses, especially those owned by Ndi-Igbo fail certainly ignores the nature of the beast in the bush called Nigeria. Ndi-Igbo are not necessarily the only victims of obnoxious public policies. However, their baseline has been disproportionately weathered and eroded given Biafra and its aftermath. The psychology of "Trust and obey" for a people who in January 1970 rejoined the Nigerian fold with empty pockets and empty bowels has yet to dissipate and abate in the year 2009.

It has been a nearly 40-year experience that has also transformed itself into a debilitating struggle, slowing down economic progress, creating unprecedented achievement gaps in almost all sectors. In the words one popular boyhood Scout Master as recalled by Reverend Greg, "Unless there is within us a moral law and order mightier than the conflicts which are outside us, we will soon yield to the forces around and about us"; thus Ndi-Igbo have had to respond to forces outside them and about them both as individuals and collectively as a people. It is the same drive that has empowered them as a "Do-it-yourself" society and hence their interest in controlling and managing their own businesses. Often times the power of the controlling authority gets on the way.

The problems facing sole proprietorship in Nigeria are as many as those encountered by "Mom and Pop" businesses elsewhere. As is in the vernacular parlance, "One Man Business" records a very high rate of failure for any number of reasons. If the perpetual state of flux inherent within Nigeria's social, religious and political structure is minimized as mere blob to the many other problems, the sole proprietor would still have very few places to hide. The issue of inheritance for a non-matrilineal social accommodation imposes unique challenges beyond the self-will. Love would not be enough for the business man anxious for a male heir. In an attempt to resolve one situation, he eventually ends up in multiple marriages thereby compounding the original problems with every changing circumstance. In time the seemingly successful businessman passes on and his living male children have just enough time to complete the wake-keeping before heading to the courts. The struggle would be about what their old man left behind rather than how to keep the business(s) afloat to remain a going concern for the next generation. Continuity becomes essentially transitory, a little beyond the half-life of the cobweb.

The average Nigerian sole proprietor has three friends, the traditional ruler of his village, the pastor of his church and the bank manager. Each serves specific purpose. The bank manager is not only his banker; he is also the accountant and chief financial officer. On a special line of credit, the sole proprietor takes loan to build that mighty house in the village, makes that oversea trip to procure merchandises and goods. He is on the road from one end of point A to the extremes of B, often returning very late, exhausted and fagged out. The next day he takes off on a repeat routine putting in 16 to 18 hours a day. The businessman has no idea of how much his time and efforts are worth; he therefore cannot assess a personal income or monthly salary. He cannot separate his personal earnings from his business earnings. At the recent Christmas launching ceremony in the village, he donated one million Naira. That money is part of the business loan taken from his bank manager just days before the holidays. Essentially he owes more than his business can actually support; therefore he is living beyond his means and cannot sustain his business activities with shortage in balance of returns. There is also the personal problem of under-education and the consequences of peer pressure, doing what others have done to seek relevance and maintain recognition in the society. Asking this type of person used to handling cash and bulk currency notes around him, to seek investment options through the stock market also misses the rest of the point. It would be equally important to tell him, the stock market is a gamble; he could lose his investment. Would he have a plan B should the market go down? Is any government in Nigeria likely to come to his aid and guarantee such a loss?

To convince him, one also has to explain why the man lost an earlier investment in Progress Bank, African Continental Bank, Savanna, Lobi, Wema, Bank of Commerce and Credit; name it and the list continues until the man is finally reminded the Nigerian government, its greedy politicians and money managers are the last to be trusted with his money; he would rather make the mistake himself and answer for it. The key then is not just personal responsibility but also how to assist the sole proprietor to minimize failure in his choice of personal life and therefore his business. He would surely benefit from such a continuing education that empowers him to make use of bar-coding and instant labeling for inventory and point-of-sale accounting; he would learn how to coordinate supply-chain, merchandising and distributive network to minimize the logistical problems limiting his scope; such a forum would explore additional opportunities through franchising and license-agency agreements. But who would organize this kind of economic empowerment forum?

The limiting problems also extend to factors beyond the control of the sole proprietor business owner. In Nigeria those kinds of external factors are as troubling as the personal tragedies and exigencies are confounding. To underscore the scope, one might be compelled to ask the leading questions. What happened to Kingsway Stores? What of Costain, Leventis, A.G. Seward, Mandillas? Panalpina, Dunlop and Michelin left town not too long ago. Has anybody asked why Vox Wagen Organization, Leyland Motors of Ibadan, Peugeot Automobile of Nigeria (PAN) in Kaduna or Arewa Textiles failed? Where is Stationery Stores, the one that produced one of the most successful club side football teams in the country? What happened to the many companies owned by MKO Abiola starting with the Concord Newspapers, Wonder Bread? The man also owned a football club but where is it? Chief Ugochukwu of Umunze owned Ugo Tires and Foam Manufacturing Company; he also owned Nabisco, makers of biscuits and cookies, and a majority share in a merchant bank; but where are these businesses? Lever Brothers is still making soap and detergent but how much expansion has its brand experienced over time? Cadbury still makes bourvita but essentially on old glory. Besides beer and soft drink bottling companies and the banks promoting buying and selling where is Nigeria's manufacturing portfolio? Could any of these so-called over-capitalized banks still fail? You bet your coins.

In contemporary terms talk about Ekene Dili Chukwu Transport, one of the pioneers of urban transit network in the country. Chief Ilodibe (Nwa Father) also owned interest in the Mercedes Benz parts manufacturing plant at Enugu. ABC Transport has been keeping the pace within its limits but it would be interesting to call on Frank Nneji its chairman to give a brief account of the problems his organization has had to face and deal with to stay in business. Frank is not an economist but hearing from someone like him who has been there done that provides the actual field experience and details lacking from any professor's notebook or the dose of rhetoric coming from the wells of the National Assembly in Abuja. If these folks and their outfits are having problems, asking why sole proprietorship and such small businesses fail becomes an oxymoron. The simple answer is that something is wrong with the country's economic structure and climate. Most rich Nigerians have made their money from government patronage, political and military activism, or board appointments. Very few have actually had any business ideas stemming from harnessing self-derived intellectual property and none in anything that has succeeded in enhancing the quality of life of an average Nigerian. The country has yet to produce a wealthy person in the mold of Bill Gates of Microsoft or Steve Jobs of Apple.

There are however many on the streets of Aba relying on their raw ingenuity and acumen to wade through the mud. All they are asking for is the enabling environment to be fully engaged and empowered. They are the victims of no electricity, no water, no sanitation, no safety of life and property; they surely need a responsible government.

To be continued---

Continued from (Part I)