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Michael NnebeMonday, January 12, 2015
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NIGERIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION …WHO I WILL VOTE FOR AND WHY

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his is by no means an endorsement of President Jonathan, and in my opinion, his administration has failed Nigeria on many fronts. As late Mario Cuomo once said, "You campaign in poetry and govern in pros." Like many Nigerians I was taken by all the beautiful words I heard from Jonathan when he was campaigning in 2011. I have always known that votes don't count in Nigeria, and therefore never bothered to vote before. But there was something different this time, Jonathan had appointed Prof. Jega, and given him a freehand to conduct free and fair elections that year. Oh, how I now remember it like it was only yesterday. Overly excited at Nigeria's prospects, I immediately registered to vote for the very first time in Nigeria. On April 14th, a couple of weeks after my 50th birthday, I took a five-minute-walk from my house to Okpara Square in Enugu, whistling my beloved hymn while I waited patiently to be accredited, and eventually voted for Jonathan. It was as if I had waited my entire life for this opportunity, and while walking back home my mind was completely overwhelmed as I purged from it the fresh tribulations of yesterday, to be replaced by a rapture of prophetic exaltation for my beloved Nigeria. Atumu ngegi! Nkolika nwa Nsukka, espeaklekwa na mu no na monso.

That triumphant vote was nearly four years ago. Jonathan has now been in power for well over five years, and as I look back wistfully to those great expectations, I often ask myself "What went wrong?" I truly don't have all the answers, perhaps Jonathan and his administration can tell us why they have failed to take us to our desired expectation. Instead of contrite, what I have seen repeatedly since last year is how they have rebased our economy and made it the biggest in Africa. Akuko! Fr. Mbaka inugo nu! The truth is that Nigeria's economy has been the biggest in Africa for probably more than seven years. We have not done any rebasing since 1992, and when Obasanjo wanted to do so in 2001 it was Okonj-Iweala that advised against it because it would have made it impossible for us to negotiate favorable terms for our debt settlement with the IMF and the Paris Club. Now the same Okonjo-Iweala has done the rebasing, which simply shows where we had been. But it has not stopped Jonathan from claiming at his campaigns that he made us the biggest economy in Africa. They have made repeated and bogus claims on the issue of power, but the truth is that despite all the promises by Jonathan when he inaugurated his committee on power five years ago, Nigeria has failed to generate 5,000 megawatts of electricity.

They have told us, indeed bragged about how they have restored our railways to her Majesty's 1960 levels at a time when several African countries are already operating modern high-speed trains. They told us that we have achieved a total agricultural transformation in Nigeria, but the truth is that more than 80% of all the rice we eat in Nigeria are still imported. Nigeria still imports most of our staple foods including beans, apples, oil, even palm oil. For a country that is a major producer of crude oil, Nigeria still imports the vast majority of the petrol we use in this country. In his campaign rhetoric, Jonathan claims to have stopped long lines at petrol stations, but at what cost? We are now spending well over five trillion naira every year to pay for the importation of petroleum and diesel products in Nigeria while our refineries remain non-functional. If those of us in Nigeria and Father Mbakahave all got it wrong, I wonder if The New York Times, and Hilary Clinton were equally wrong in their independent assessments that Jonathan presides over a very corrupt administration. Our President seemed very angry in his outbursts against those who have criticized his failings. I saw an angry President at his campaign stop at Lagos and Enugu. I had expected a contrite man with a broken spirit making a case for us to give him a second chance, but instead he is blaming others for his inability to deliver on the promises he made to Nigerians four years ago.

I can tell you authoritatively that there is something in the air in Nigeria. Many who voted happily for Jonathan in 2011 are now fed up with him, fed up with the PDP, and wished for a better alternative. Yesterday Buhari held a rally at Awka, and the venue was packed. I never thought that such was possible in my own hometown. The APC held a rally the same day at Okpara Square without Buhari, right opposite the Enugu governor's house, and it was equally packed. I had personally wished for an alternative, even prayed for one, and when the APC emerged as a political party capable of challenging the PDP I watched expectantly. In one of my articles last year, I challenged them to build better political structures and find someone capable of changing the fortunes of Nigeria. Sadly the APC failed to do that. If they had picked someone like Fashola as their Presidential candidate, I would have voted for him happily. At this state in my life, all I wish for is someone that can bring about the transformations Nigeria desperately needed. I could care less if it is a he or she, Christian or Muslim, Northern or Southern, just a Nigerian that can transform this country. Unfortunately, the APC chose to return to the past. I am old enough to have lived through some of the difficult times in Nigeria. December 31st 1983, I was on route back to Nigeria aboard a British Caledonian flight from London when Buhari struck in a military coupe, and our plane was diverted to Accra Ghana because Nigeria's airspace was closed.

I often wonder where Nigeria would be today if Buhari and his colleagues have not truncated Shagari's elected government. One thing I have learned about Democracy is that it makes progress over a long period of time, not overnight. There are things that Obasanjo did with impunity that Jonathan cannot even contemplate doing today. Likewise there are things Jonathan is doing today that cannot be contemplated by a Nigerian President ten years from now. The process of democracy may be grinding very slowly, but it stops and even reverses when it is interrupted from grinding at all. I cannot in good conscience reward someone like Buhari with my vote many years after he was responsible for truncating our democratic experience. Many respected Nigerians who are not affiliated with any political parties have spoken on this issue, people like Wole Soyinka whose opinion I respect deeply. Many of them are not happy with Jonathan, yet they have also made it clear that Buhari cannot be the preferred option. Personally, I have considered staying home that day, and not voting for anyone. 2011 was my first vote in Nigeria, I have since resolved to cast my vote if I am ever in Nigeria during any presidential election. I shall therefore go to Okpara Square on the 14th of February and cast my vote.

Besides Jonathan and Buhari, there are seven or eight other names expected to be on the Presidential ballot that day. If I must be totally honest with myself, then there are a few things that Jonathan has done better than previous presidents; he has allowed for a relatively free and fair elections in Nigeria. He has allowed for an unprecedented freedom of speech and of the press. These two are perhaps the most fundamental in an effort to build a modern society. They must account for something in my considerations. It is also possible that some of his reforms or transformation programs are yet to take hold to the point that they can be visible or tangible. I can imagine the Americans who supported Obama in 2008 going through similar agony in his re-election bid in 2012 when America seemed to be unable to drift out of the devastating economic effects of the 2008 economic collapse. Today, all the indices in America show an economy performing far better than all expectations, and certainly better than all their European counterparts. But the more I think of the Jonathan's good deeds the more I am reminded of his failures. The issue of Boko Haram is one that I cannot fully comprehend. How is it that Jonathan and his army have so far failed to crush these insurgents? Islamic Insurgency is not necessarily a new thing in Northern Nigeria; in the early eighties we had the dreaded Maitatsine, which was quickly crushed by the Shagari led administration. By dealing with Boko Haram with kid's gloves from the beginning they have become emboldened, and like any cancer that spreads beyond its original spot, it often becomes a losing battle chasing after it.

In spite of all these failures, should I vote against Jonathan this time around and help to throw him out. Perhaps not. I truly think that Jonathan is a good guy, and that he truly means well, and even wished to do good for Nigeria. He set up a formidable economic team headed by Okonjo-Iweala, and gave them the freedom to chat a new course for Nigeria's economy. Those technocrats have now all become politicians, which is what Abuja water can do to anyone who think they are above board. But at the end of the day the buck stops with the President who takes the credit as well as the blame for all things good and bad under his watch. Every day of my life, I rely on the grace of God to get through daily challenges. I have come to rely on this abundance of grace from God. The very least I can do now is to extend that grace to Jonathan, and hope that perhaps in the end things may work out for the better. The APC have failed to provide me with a credible alternative. There is a reason Nigerians have rejected Buhari in three prior presidential elections before this one. Surely things have changed and I expect the results to be much closer than it was in 2011. But in the end it is more than likely that Jonathan will prevail again, and may God help Nigeria not to move backwards regardless of today's difficulties.

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