One of a sequence of near fatal situations Nigeria has faced, who to blame and what to do.

do not believe that any one writer or columnist, however brilliant, can accurately analyze and predict all the scenarios or fallout to come from the Yar Adua’s predicament at this critical moment in his presidency, and what that could mean or portend for Nigeria if he suddenly dies in office as feared or anticipated by many in our country including his most loyal supporters. I feel uncomfortable discussing or debating if anybody or the President is going to die or live.

advertisement

I’d rather leave that to God Almighty who knows the end from the beginning and the beginning from the end. But when a disease as terminal and deadly as the one our President has, strikes a man or woman, all bets are off trying to play the Good Samaritan who must see and hear no evil or talk about it. That restraint becomes a non-issue when the target of speculation is a politician whose public or private life, must, of necessity be an open book in the America-oriented type of presidential system our country has embraced for better or for worse. The right to air such views without any fear of reprisals is part of what makes the American system so unique and attractive.

I submit that Yar'Adua would need a “Talithacumi” type of miracle to survive his current ordeal in a country where every store front and warehouse have been turned into a church where many pastors and political leaders like Obasanjo have claimed to daily commune with God, keeping vigil at Holy Ghost nights at the redemption camps on Ibadan/Lagos Express, speaking in tongues as eloquently and humorously depicted by Reuben Abati in his latest article on Yar'Adua carried by the Guardian Newspaper and Nigeriaworld. Abati, my favorite columnist, has wondered aloud and rightly so, why the hundreds of pastors and prayer warriors in Nigeria have not yet come together to do a deliverance crusade and intercession for a President whose sudden death in office, could predictably throw Nigeria into another crisis mode too many in our 47 years as a self-governing nation.

The prayer warriors could easily have taken a script from Pastor Olukoya and just command the various demons or diseases tormenting our President to either fly away or be consumed by Holy Ghost fire, with the shout of seven powerful “Amen” to seal the deal. I seriously believe that such a step could easily have done our very sick President a lot of good. After all, the Presidents of Zambia and Ghana have been rumored to frequently come on a holy pilgrimage to Nigeria to publicly thank our own Pastor T.M, Joshua for interceding for them to secure electoral victories in their respective countries by just praying for them. I never knew that prayer alone can get anybody elected in a third world country where open rigging and electoral fraud are as predictable as day and night. The same Joshua has been known to cure Aids and other serious diseases by merely asking God to have mercy. I cannot help but wonder why our own President has not explored that option or get some relief from his endless flights to Saudi on holy pilgrimage! The President probably wants to die in Saudi to secure his right of passage to “Alujanah” or “Alukiamo” forgive my bad spelling, as widely believed in Islam. I can understand his not wanting to die in Nigeria. Can’t you?

This point is legitimate to make, and I make it here, not to ridicule Chritianity or Islam but out of genuine concern for the plight of our President and the country over which he rules. The President needs to be reminded that if he does not quit his job, the job could predictably quit him, like has happened to many Nigerians who have frequently altered their dates of birth to prolong their tenure in the Public Service. Too many of them have had to die in active service and the only benefit they always get is a death gratuity of one year salary which is a fraction of what they might have received had they listen to what their body was telling them, and quit at the right time

Mr. President will be well advised to take a script from those Nigerians. He definitely has more to gain from leaving office the right way than overstaying his welcome thereby putting the interest and welfare of the whole country at risk. He wants to be a “uniter” and not a “divider” with apologies to George Bush, and the best way to do that, is to not only respect the Nigerian Constitution, but have his ruling Party and his loyal supporters do the same. If he dies or resigns at any time, Mr. Goddluck the zoologist must take over as President. Period.

Some have predicted that Mr. Goodluck might turn Nigeria into a zoo. Good for those saying that. I would only remind them of the late Kwameh Nkrumah’s statement that “he would rather be poor and be free than be rich, but be enslaved” I’d rather see Nigeria turned into a zoo than for some elements in the North to ignore the Constitution for the sole purpose of retaining power by all means. I have no problems with Nigeria becoming a zoo as long as it is constitutionally done. We are already a few notches from becoming a zoo, getting the next promotion to becoming a real zoo might not be such a bad idea Animals in zoos around the world are better served by their owners than what our own Government is doing to us. What is not so kosher for me is ignoring the Constitution or sweeping any of its important provisions under the carpet just because the North does not want to relinquish or share power with the South as equal partners.

. I remain a strong believer in the Akure proverb which says “ It is not always the terribly sick or the bed-ridden that is next in line to die” For all you know, some of us already proclaiming the obituary of Mr. President, could die before him in a country where the average span of life is only 46. It is a country where the first medical check up some of us would ever have, is more often than not, going to be our last. It is a country where all of our leaders including our President have lost so much confidence in our hospitals and clinics that they always seek refuge in Saudi, Germany or Cleveland, Ohio and some of the most expensive hospitals in America, even for a common cold or sinus problem. They always forget that the Saudis in particular have wisely used their own dividends from oil to turn their desert country into an oasis of hope, and their hospitals into some of the best in the world. If Mr. President has any conscience at all, he is going to get sicker than getting better, every time he remembers on his sick bed in Saudi that Nigeria has the potential to be far more advanced than Saudi Arabia, all things considered. Nigeria just never gets there because of leaders like himself who do not understand how to turn the limitless resources of Nigeria into priceless assets.

Those who fully understand that death is no respecter of persons would be careful as I am, in commenting on whether or not this president is going to die or live. I guess I myself could possibly have been dead by now, if I never left Nigeria. When I ponder the fate of many of my friends and schoolmates who have died at home. I cannot help but be reminded of my own mortality and what could be responsible for that scary development in our country where too many young people are dying everyday The only physical exercise and walkout Nigerians ever have, are sex, womanizing, and weekend parties and merrymaking, Sex is two for a penny in Nigeria if you are filthy rich and politically connected. You can tell from the number of Ministers and Commissioners dying in Hotels and short time lodging motels in every nook and corner of our country as we speak. We thank God that Yar'Adua is not known to be a womanizer like his predecessor who has never seen a woman he did not like. Yar'Adua’s demise would have been more predictable has he added that vice to some of his glaring weaknesses as President. We all still remember President Abacha dying after a few rounds with some Indian prostitutes as rumored at the time. The question most Nigerians are asking today is how long is Yar'Adua going to be able to stay alive? I wish I had the answer to that.

Three years ago I had one of the closest calls to death I have ever had, following a Lanisectomy surgery I had in one of the Hospitals in New York. Nobody who saw me then could believe I could still be alive today doing what I am doing now. If it can happen to me, it can also happen to the President or any of you reading this. You can now understand why I am very careful to not prematurely write off Yar'Adua even as I conjecture the worst possible outcome his sudden death could mean for Nigeria,

I am yet to see a country where so much is riding on the probable death of one individual, and where such a death could epitomize so much doom and uncertainty. If you are looking for one single factor that defines a third world country from a truly developed country, you have found one in Yar'Adua’s current situation in Nigeria.

What is more scary is the fact that Nigeria, on several occasions, has found herself on the verge of crisis and break-up, which have threatened our survival or unity as one country. United States of Nigeria could have been one good name to give our country but very few will dare suggest that, because we all know we are all only being held together by miracle. If you look beyond that, you can say that the only factor still keeping us together is probably oil and the abundance of it. If the oil wells dry up tomorrow, so will Nigeria. Nigerian unity is a concept built on quick sand. General Gowon said it best when, in a Freudian slip at the early stages of the Biafran war, he said, and I quote that “the basis of Nigerian unity does not exist” Tell me about it!

As a concerned citizen of Nigeria, my central focus in this piece is to brainstorm, with conventional wisdom, some of the ramifications of Yar'Adua sudden or expected death in office. In making this comment, I am very mindful of the validity of the statement once credited to Socrates, the world’s greatest teacher, that “what any human being could be seeing or saying, at any point in time, is more often than not, a factor of where that individual is sitting or standing.

My analysis and interpretation of the Yar'Adua’s cul-de-sac could be diametrically different from a northerner’s perception of the same problem. I want to make that point clear, upfront, before walking on pins and needles, so to speak, in passing any judgment on Yar'Adua’s state of health and what it could mean for all of us. I have had so many sleepless nights as I try to configure what could happen, and how for God’s sake, could Nigeria extricate herself from this political quagmire, if what we are hearing becomes a self fulfilling prophesy, that the northerners have said they would never let the sitting Vice President take over, if his boss, the President were to die or be so incapacitated that he could no longer continue in office.

Lyndon Baines Johnson was sworn into office as President of the United States inside a presidential jet within minutes of the assassination of JFK. Standing side by side with him as he took the oath of office, were his wife, Lady Bird and Jackie Kennedy. The imagery alone had sent a powerful message to America and to the whole world about the import of continuity to America. Our leaders don’t think like a Lyndon Johnson. They are much more concerned about “what their country can do for them, and not what they can do for their country”. Our President is scared to death to handover to his VP every time he goes on vacation. He would rather handover to his wife Turai than delegate power to his VP. If Yar'Adua has the heart of gold that Lyndon Johnson has so beautifully exemplified at that critical moment in American History, he would have been more prudent in what he does as his doctors present to him the prognosis on his state of health which can be equalized, for purpose of argument with the state of the nation, if you can accept that.

My hunch is that the North is only playing a hide and seek game with the fate of Nigeria or they may just be flying a kite for public consumption only. If the push comes to shove like the Northerners have done, a few times, when Nigeria was at a crossroad for explosion or break up, they are going to very quickly take a retreat and allow wiser counsel to prevail, like they did, when they allowed Olusegun Obasanjo to succeed Murtala Mohammed, even though the same North or the coup plotters in 1966 had, summarily rejected Brigadier Ogundipe and settled for a more junior officer in Yakubu Gowon as successor to Iron side Aguiyi Ironsi. I just love History for what it teaches us.

I can clearly see Nigeria going back again to the exact situation Nigeria had found herself when, all of a sudden, the maximum dictator, Genera Abacha died and before anyone knew what was happening, his fellow political gladiator and rival for power. MKO Abiola, who was in detention, at the time, was quickly forced to sing his own “Nunc Dimitis” through sabotage and poison all in an effort to help the North retain their strategic edge in the domination of Nigeria.

Many in the corridors of power had welcomed the development, making many of us wonder about whether Abiola’s death was not the result of Government sponsored sabotage to create a level playing field for those who saw the gladiators as the stumbling block between them and their clandestine agenda to return Nigeria back to its status quo of Northern domination in much the same way like the selection of Yakubu Gowon as head of State in July 1966, was designed to clandestinely restore power back to the North. The Northerners had figured it out correctly that the only northerner that the Christian South could accept, at that critical moment, was a Yakubu Gowon from Wusasa, Benue Plateau. General Gowon has come from a predominantly Christian minority area of the North. .

I figure it out that the same scenario is about to repeat itself again. The sponsored agitation by some elements in the Delta area, to pressurize the current Vice President to resign even before his terribly sick boss resigns or dies, could be history repeating itself again Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Some powerful interests in the North must have been the engine driving the agitation because if the VP’s resignation were seen to be engineered by his own people, the North as usual would have been spared the pains of any complicity or involvement in it. That scenario would have been the perfect solution the North is desperately looking for as they see their man fading away from the center of gravity in the power calculus of Nigeria due to his poor health.

The intended or the unintended consequences of the VP’s resignation would have given the North their best chance to return back to where they wanted to be ab initio. Such a move would also have saved them the pains of having to do the dirty job by other means like happened in the strategic elimination of Abiola following Abacha’s death. If Abiola had lived, he most likely would have been considered the most logical choice to take over the governance of Nigeria because he clearly won the June 12 elections, and the whole country knew that for a fact. His election was annulled because he came from the South. The case could be made that they took him out for that reason. But the whole strategy blew up in their faces as southerners began to feel that Abiola’s death was definitely another attempt to stop the presidency from being held by a southerner. IBB and the power brokers in the North were not going to allow such a deep rooted suspicion or animosity to take hold, because if it did, Nigeria would be history, and if Nigeria was history, the biggest loser was going to be the North, because the North would no longer have unrestrained access to the black gold. That was the condition that led to the PDP making nocturnal visits to the prison to persuade Obasanjo to come lead Nigeria one more time to stabilize the situation before another northerner comes on board.

The question I keep asking myself as a historian and political scientist, and as I ponder the choices open to Nigeria now, is why is our country always finding herself at the edge of a precipice all the time?

The miracle of it all is that we are still together as a nation 47 years into our independence from Britain and with so many coups and near death situations and crisis that could easily have totally finished another country.

The amalgamation proclamation in 1914 that united the north and the southern protectorates into one nation was another crossroad for Nigeria, because the move was not designed to serve the best interest of the new nation. The move was made for the administrative convenience of her Majesty’s Government in Britain. We were three or more separate and distinct nations forced by the colonial Government to join together without any meaningful consultation with the people and their leadership. The unification has remained a huge national problem we still confront till tomorrow as we try to make the best of a bad situation. The proposed restructuring of the country into six geographical zones was supposed to take care of that, but the move is being opposed by the North because it is going to mean a major power shift, the end of which they are yet unable to fully predict. They think that a bird in the hand is worth a million in the bush, but they are doing so at the expense of the country.

The enforced amalgamation, in large part, explains why Nigeria has faced some near death situations, which may well manifest itself again in the Yar'Adua stalemate. In more rational countries, Yar'Adua without anybody telling him, would have realized the futility of hanging on to power and just tender his resignation by handing over to his Vice President for continuity. Somebody would have to put a gun to his head before he could honorably resign because he probably values his northern interest and agenda far more than he values the collective interest of Nigeria. As a matter of fact, Obasanjo should never have imposed Yar'Adua on Nigeria. He should have known that his failing state of health was likely to affect his ability to perform and that his sudden death if it occurs, could predictably destabilize the country. The North was not interested in what the Constitution says. What matters to them is how to retain power .by stopping the South.

Obasanjo, for sure, is not the central focus of this article, but as the man that has single-handedly imposed Yar'Adua on his party and Nigeria. I see no way to really do justice to this topic without some pertinent reference to him. Whether Nigerians like it or not, Obasanjo, for better or for worse, has become a recurring decimal in the history of our country because of the several critical roles he has played in shaping that history. Obasanjo has shaped that history, in my opinion, as leader of the Third Marine Commando. He took the highest credit for the Pyrrhic victory of the Federal troops in the Biafran War, even though much of the heavy lifting in that war, was the brainchild of his predecessor, Brigadier Benjamin Adekunle often referred to as the Black Scorpion for his ruthless but successful leadership. That was long before Obasanjo came on board.

The war I submit is another near death situation that almost succeeded in tearing Nigeria apart. Obasanjo was a big part of that war because he received the surrender document on behalf of his Commander-in-Chief. I knew quite a few things about the war that inform part of the convictions I project in this write-up

I joined the Federal Civil Service on January 3, 1968 roughly six months after the war broke out in 1967 My first posting should have been to the Ministry of External Affairs as a Foreign Affairs Officer Grade II, but because Nigeria was compelled to reduce the number of her overseas missions because Obafemi Awolowo as Federal Commissioner for Finance and Deputy Chairman of the Federal Executive Council had convinced the Executive Council headed by Yakubu Gowon to order a reduction in the number of Nigerian missions abroad. Awolowo had forcefully argued that Nigeria needed all the money it could find to prosecute the war and that it made little sense to keep some of the missions abroad while Nigeria was at war.

That was how I ended up being posted to the Federal Ministry of Defense as Administrative Officer Grade II on January 3, 1968 direct from my teaching job as a graduate teacher at Igbobi College, Lagos. The Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of External Affairs were, at the time, housed in the Republic Building, Marina, Lagos. That was how come I came to know the top brass of the Nigerian Military, and those in charge of policy formulation and execution of the war at the highest level of Government. The War commanders including Obasanjo used to frequent the Army Headquarters for briefing and that was how I came to know most of them starting with Murtala Mohammed, to late Colonel Alao of the Air Force, Benjamin Adekunle and others too many to recount in this article.

I as Assistant Secretary in charge of Army matters, not only had access to secret and confidential documents concerning the war, I was also privileged to know first hand, some of the nuances and politics of the Military and how Obasanjo in the Engineering Corps ended up taking over from Brigadier Adekunle as Commanding Officer of the Third Marine Commando. If there was any singular factor that gave Obasanjo an edge over and above his southern peers and colleagues in the Military, it was his role in the civil war. That role was the “fons et origo” of his Napoleonic rise in the Military coupled of course with his uncanny ability to” kiss ass” if necessary to get to where he wanted to be. There was also his political calculus and loyalty for the 200 days he had served as the number 2 man and the hatchet man for Murtala Mohammed. I am able to write about these experiences 40 years later, because they offer a deep insight into the war from the Federal side.

Obasanjo has always known where the very center of gravity lies in the Military and what he must do to earn the trust and confidence of the power brokers in mufti or uniform to the north of River Niger. You have got to give him credit for being so smart and calculating despite his limited formal education. Those who have read some of his books will appreciate why I submit that Obasanjo deserves the “evil genius” appellation far more than IBB, and that is why IBB, for all his genius as Maradona, always defers to Obasanjo not just because he was junior to Obasanjo in the Army hierarchy but because he knew Obasanjo was a master tactician who cannot be ignored till now. Only Obasanjo could have stopped IBB from running in 2007. Nobody else could have done it. Obasanjo instinctively knew the North better than any of his peers in the South. He spoke Hausa with the dexterity of a Dan Maraya and he understood better than any of his rivals for power that once the North says they are with you, you can take their word to the Bank.

The North as a block does not waiver or look back. The northerners always give you the benefit of the doubt, come rain or shine. The South, as a rule, is less predictable. Period Obasanjo knew that, and he pitched his tent of loyalty and partnership with the North while privately denouncing the independent streak of political operatives and juggernauts like Obafemi Awolowo, much to his own advantage. It paid off big time paving the way for him to become the longest serving Head of State in Nigeria and arguably the most trust worthy southerner the North could find when they were momentarily forced to concede and share power with the South.

Obasanjo was very well positioned by God to change Nigeria for the better, if he actually practiced much of what he preached and some of what he learnt in prison while waiting for the worst from the Abacha Gestapo. He emerged out of that dungeon to be crowned the king for the second time in 1999 in a mandate that extended to 2007 and could possibly have extended to 2011 or beyond, if Atiku as Vice President had co-operated. Obasanjo would not let Atiku run because in his convoluted mind, there was no vacancy in Aso Rock. By the same token Atiku aided by some powerful elements in the PDP, Orji Uzor Kalu being one of them, had single-handedly deflated Obasanjo’s plan to succeed himself.

Obasanjo finally chose to go with the weakest link in the chain in the hope Nigeria would start running back to him for help as the life chairman of the ruling party’s Board of Trustee which was designed to be more powerful than the incumbent President himself That was the calculation but, the whole scheme would appear to have blown up in his face as we all saw when his third term bid crumbled like a pack of cards .The fallout from the failure of that grand design was the emergence of Yar'Adua as President as a last resort. The successor to Obasanjo if he was not playing the Northern game should either have come from the Eastern zone first and foremost or the South South for sure.

Didn’t General Gowon tell us “there was no victor and no vanquished” after the Biafran War? If that was indeed the case, I think an Okechukwu or an Onyekuluje should have been considered for President by Obasanjo before settling for Yar'Adua. If we are all partners or shareholders in this Federation enterprise, that should have been the way to go. Nature may be the one turning things around for Nigeria now because what is happening to Yar'Adua today was totally beyond the machination of any human being. But somehow some powerful elements from the North are bent on thwarting that force of nature or retributive justice, or God, if you can accept that.

If Yar'Adua goes for any reason, the VP must succeed him. Any attempt to eliminate him will be History repeating itself and the whole nation must be aware of it and nip it in the bud, because all it needs for evil to succeed if for good people to see evil and turn the other way That must not be allowed to happen again. If the VP serves the rest of Yar'Adua’s tenure, the PDP ought to face an uphill task in 2011 that should make it impossible for them to retain power again based on their track record. Nigeria badly needs a change, and a change she must get, if we all play our part. Need I say more?

I rest my case.