oing by the indices of occurrences the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is due to lose its political hegemony at the federal level, and barring any unforeseen situation, which may likely result from ego, greed and individual ambition from the array of seasoned politicians that are fusing into the main opposition, the bandwagon effect of PDP big fall will definitely favor the APC to form the next government.
Other factors may be subjected to extrapolations but one fact is certain; the APC is following the Machiavellian script in its poise to wrestle power from the crumbling behemoth called the PDP. Interpreted differently, the duo may not be sharply different in terms of ideology otherwise APC need not court known and renowned turncoat conservatives from the party with leaking umbrella who did not renege their party affiliation for principles but for interests that cannot be claimed to be for the sake of the entity called Nigeria but for individual and group interests.
Generally speaking, the inherent mechanism in democratic system of government makes it impossible for occupiers of elective offices not to have any performance at all, though they may not have superlative achievements and none of them has had any in the core areas of governance that commensurate with funds that accrued to them, obviously because they run big governments that leave little for massive developments and the few modest achievements most of them can ascribe to their government are more tailored towards political patronage considerations and may therefore not for the benefits of the masses.
Calling a spade with no other name than a spade, practitioners of democracy especially those who have occupied and are occupying the political spaces where they can really impact on the overall development of the country after repeated assaults on the health of the country by successive military governments have been serious disappointments and damning betrayers.
The government at the center becomes the most culprit because of responsibilities vested in it such as security to lives and property; provision of electricity before its recent privatization, infrastructural developments and even some shared responsibilities like education, health and civil liberties. Virtually all the six geo political zones are having bad roads, students and prospective students are not being fully accommodated in schools and a good example is the just resolved impasse between the federal government and the Academic Staff Union of Universities which lasted for more than five months and smacks of impunity on the part of the federal government. The sudden war from a sect that calls themselves “Boko Haram” has left everybody panting and living in constant fears of untimely death or threats of permanent disabilities. It is doubtful if there is an accurate figure of casualties from the barrage of ceaseless attacks on soft targets but conservatively it may be running to thousands. Such a casualty figure is outrageous, reprehensible and annoying.
The combined effects of the above and indeed many others have made many to lose faith in the federal government’s ability to provide security for the citizens. Matter of fact, many individuals and their families have fled where used to be their places of abode to other parts of the country that are not yet affected by the continuous bloodletting. Yet the constitution allows any Nigerian to live and work peacefully in any part of the country. The government also has the responsibility to safeguard the constitution. This vital responsibility however seems to be eluding the capacity and capability of the government at the center. It must be stated that the president and commander-in-chief enabled the section with the coercive responsibility and battles are being won but the war is yet to be won.
The cacophony of it all is that boot lickers and sycophants are now reminding us that we are not one and same people and more than any other time in the past, the peace and unity of the country is being constantly threatened. Some people who are supposed to show decorum in conduct and comments now make incendiary remarks. When people are supposed to be objective and constructive, issues are reduced to personal hatred and vice versa for people in position of authority. Unfortunately a leading politician and an elder statesman set the agenda before the conduct of 2011 general elections when the issue of topmost elective office was based on zoning.
More disturbing is the presence of rising corruption allegations and the seeming inertia on the part of the government to rise to the occasion and arrest the trend.
These developments now make the ruling party to appear incompetent, lack steam and vigor and virtually incompetent to lead the country. The opposition is cashing in not only on the internal rumblings and restiveness within the ruling party but also the frustrations of the multitude within the dungeon called Nigeria.
This writer had always appreciated the idea of two strong political parties and possibly a third one that can offer the third way but not as in military contraption as applied under the dictatorship of Ibrahim Babangida which ended in an election fiasco and its attendant evils that have lived with us till date. It is cheering to see that a virile or potentially vibrant political party has evolved through the doctrine of necessity that the sponsors claim is to save the entity called Nigeria, therefore it behooves on people of goodwill to come together, unify in diversity and tolerate to effect a peaceful change. The emergence of APC has far reaching consequences than the platforms perfidiously scripted and called the SDP and the NRC in those days.
How will the equilibrium and the disequilibrium of both the APC and the PDP impact on our people and the political landscape?
First and primarily if the PDP is rejected at the polls in 2015, it would have occurred because of protests by people who the party has disappointed and that means that upon assumption of office, the APC will do so many things in differently if only to show that they are the party to trust. Their first four years will show some vigor and dynamism to justify their being elected. A government brought to power on its platform will change tactics on kidnapping, oil theft, high profile corruption and infrastructural renewal.
The party will definitely act to improve upon the security situation that had nosedived considerably during the years of the PDP led government. APC government will do all within its powers to ensure that electricity is not a rocket science and would definitely strive to create jobs for the teaming masses. The party will also make efforts at boosting food production and education.
Though the jugular of the party shall be held by the initiators of the Mega party, those who came to fuse into it will soon realize that they are different people and would start to talk to their colleagues on the other side of the divide for possible realignment. The PDP had always insulted the intelligence of the voters by thinking that they do not have any major national party that can create upset until the advent of the APC.
The chicken is coming home to roost, for at no other time in the past does it appear real that this country would be tapping into the strength and attractions of democracy as a form of government by applying the features of peaceful change at periodic intervals; the people having the power to punish a particular party that betrays the trusts reposed in it; having an alternative to a government that has lost steam and keeping the new ones on their toes.
Should the baton change as the prospects indicate presently, then the next four years from 2015 will witness a sharp departure from the way things are done in the past as the new government will want to prove to the electorate that they are different from the one they have rejected.
The defeated party will first be in disarray for a period of the first four years because the people who thrive on patronage will take a leave and seek business elsewhere. The defeated party will thereafter take stock and some people of goodwill will go back to the spirit and wisdom of the G34 who first gave birth to the party when the military disengaged in 1999; they would now begin to rebuild the party by putting forward people of good quality and pedigree in order to sell the party to the people.
Because both the APC and the PDP are not diametrically different ideologically but are surely different in upholding the values and virtues of their mission and vision, the APC will definitely show some skills but may not be able to yank some tendencies hence the emergence of a third force political party that will marshal a different approach that may be theoretically good but difficult to achieve and the party will be the stabilizing factor for the other two.
When these extrapolations begin to manifest then Nigeria is on the path of growth and development. Voters will henceforth matter in the consideration of the politicians. It simply translates to the fact that the seeming fortunes of APC and the obvious misfortunes hitting the PDP is healthy for Nigeria and Nigerians in order to attain greater heights that often come through competition by two political parties that are strong but different in philosophy. By the time the APC does four years or eight years and power starts to intoxicate them, the PDP will offer to serve and marshal an argument that they are now far away from where they were in 1999 to 2007.
The best gift any right thinking Nigerian can request from President Goodluck Jonathan is to keep to his promise of free, fair and credible elections in 2014 and 2015 and if he happens to be the Gorbachev of Nigeria though not in terms of seeing the implosion of our beloved country but by changing the system for good and losing out, so be it.