"The presidency may turn out to be a one horse race if OBJ decides to play a Mandela, that is not to seek renomination but to sponsor IBB as pundits will say to return the compliments IBB paid in 1999. Or, on the other hand, IBB may decide to renew his support for OBJ as in 1999 to ensure his re-election in exchange of support for year 2007. Will they make a deal or fight for it? What is it to be? What is the choice? Six of one or half a dozen of the other? Do not ask me."

nigmatic Senator Francis Arthur Nzeribe is in the news again. About a year-ago, Nzeribe raised the specter of impeachment when he compiled a list of allegations of impropriety against the incumbent President, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. Then, Nigerians had a field day. Arguably, there was no political analyst who did not partake in the psychological profiling of this aberrant character in Nigerian politics. This time around, he has made a 180-degree turn clamoring for the consensus candidacy of the incumbent President come 2003.

It is amazing to observe that the Oguta-born politician continues to conjure an aura of unpredictability. This aura attracts people to any cause that is dear to his heart. One cannot but recall the sudden and cozy relationship between Chuba Okadigbo and Nzeribe in the floor of the upper house early last year. Needless to say that Okadigbo's political science training and skill were no match for Nzeribe's guile and pragmatic politics. Okadigbo in the process of the dalliance with Nzeribe's impeachment motion committed political suicide, and ever since has been consigned into the political twilight zone.

Prior to this latest thrust, Nzeribe wrote a lengthy article ("2003: OBJ, IBB and Others-The News, March 12, 2001") analyzing why the geo-political zones in Nigeria, come 2003, would have no alternative but to choose between Obasanjo and Babangida. He delved into the intra-political squabbles bedeviling the South-South, and the lack of Igbo preparedness to effectually participate in the 'big power' politics of Nigeria. For all intents and purposes, there were some pertinent points made by Nzeribe in that article. That piece revealed a lot about the profound political grasp, which Nzeribe has of the fluid dynamics of political power play in Nigeria. In short, the depth of analysis and candor displayed in the article by Nzeribe was revealing.

The man, Arthur Nzeribe, I have met twice, albeit informally. The first time was in Abiriba in 1988, when some illustrious Abiriba sons were conferred with chieftaincy titles. Then, I was in the company of Commodore Ebitu Ukiwe (rtd.) on the way to the Nnachioke's palace when suddenly a striking figure emerged surrounded by about five bodyguards, who were dressed in traditional Igbo wrapper attire. This figure and bodyguards moved as if they were on their way to pay sacrifice to a village deity. Their steps were measured, their countenance stern with all the solemnity of a ritual about them. It was quintessential Nzeribe performing his novel act. Refreshing my memory of that occasion reminds me of someone who likes to do things his own way, and who loves being noticed. The second time was in the elevator, at the Nicon-Noga Hilton Abuja, eleven years later. There he was: lanky, jet-black complexioned, and owl-shaped eyes, a sharp contrast in personality to what I observed eleven years earlier. This time, he wore a drab look, diabolic in appearance and an air of pathos about him.

I have discussed the above in order to intimate that coming in contact with Nzeribe, one gets the impression of an intricate personality. There seems to be something about Nzeribe that suggests inscrutability: one moment there is apparent excitability, and in the next melancholy. Unmistakably, there is a palpable air about him that fuels controversy and which cannot escape attention. In the midst of the attention is a personality mired in suspicion, unpredictability, singular drive and lust for power.

It is with regards to the preceding that Nzeribe's latest mission to reincarnate the 'consensus candidacy' mantra into the lexicon of the 2003 electioneering campaign should be viewed. He stated that "nobody can stop us; it (the move) is in the constitution", referring to the Movement for National Consensus and Accommodation (MONAC) objective to ensure that President Olusegun Obasanjo is adopted as the sole presidential candidate in the 2003 presidential election.

With not much ado, the idea of consensus candidacy in a nation where there are multiple political parties sounds weird. This idea peddled by Nzeribe is a sure sign of his unique creativity and intellect. During the Babangida transition program the Association for Better Nigeria (ABN) was floated, by Nzeribe, to canvass for the annulment of the fairest and freest election in our history. The main purpose was to mop up the ground for IBB's succession bid. Later, under the Abacha regime, he again flirted with the idea of Abacha succeeding himself. He failed in the former by the sheer will of the Nigerian people, while the latter was truncated by the wisdom of Almighty God when Abacha terminally expired in the wee hours of June 8, 1998.

Now, the maverick politician is at it again. The man, who swore last year that he would use any means necessary to ensure Obasanjo's impeachment, has become a campaign arrowhead for his sole candidacy. Definitely, to avid observers of the wheeler dealing of Nigerian politics, there is more than meets the eye. Primarily, since nothing of significance has changed in Obasanjo's way of doing business. Also, Nzeribe is a member of the APP, a political party that is in opposition to the PDP-the President's party. Yes, Nzeribe was in the trenches to withstand an onslaught of marginalization against the core-north, one of the reasons he gave for the impeachment motion against the President. So, where does his interests and allegiance lie?

Nzeribe cannot be dismissed lightly. There is more in his bag of tricks than mere controversy. He has methodically prepared the way for this latest furtive mission by alerting us to the possibility of an Obasanjo second-term in his latest essay. Could it be that Nzeribe is suggesting a lack of presidential materials in the APP? Especially viewed against the last election when Chief Olu Falae of the AD was nominated as a joint AD/APP presidential candidate? Or, is it a suggestion that the AD can no longer conjure the magic of bloc-loyalty in the South-West, and thus a new alliance is in the offing? It could also be a subtle pointer to inform us that the publicized Babangida's interest for a second coming has been aborted. Further, it may be a decoy to divert attention from the core-north's stealthy plan to pull a surprise by fielding a formidable candidate. Thus, making other geopolitical zones to be caught with their pants down. There are many permutations that could be made of the new Nzeribe factor regarding the electioneering uncertainty that will be Nigeria's lot towards 2003.

Irrespective of our thoughts about Nzeribe, there is a virtue that one cannot take away from him. He is a foxy politician, interjecting reflection into politicking, evoking controversies and keeping all on their toes. Nzeribe is a calculating politician: measuring his thoughts, his interests and his steps. The extent to which we scrutinize and unravel the Nzeribe phenomenon would help in many ways to checkmate the current political elite in their game of abracadabra with the Nigerian electorate. Meanwhile, the beat goes on for Nzeribe and the country.