Femi Ajayi's Outlook


There is nothing to laugh about in the elections in Nigeria (2003) and United States (2004). Presidents Bush and Obasanjo, are some of the lucky guys around, but should note that neither elections are nothing to laugh about, that is not funny.
Monday, January 24, 2005



Dr. Femi Ajayi

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LESSONS FROM THE UNITED STATES (2004), AND NIGERIA (2003) ELECTIONS,
NOT SO FUNNY OBJ



nited States of America's 2004 election came and gone for ever, so also Nigeria's 2003 Presidential election. But the memories continue to linger on and would not easily disappear from human memoirs for some time to come. The shock wave was felt, not only in America, but all over the world. People were so concerned that the last solace of man on earth, the religious clerics, could not make the prophesies come true. What an election fever that enthralled the entire universe.


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President Bush has now been sworn in for his second term. In his inaugural speech he is not backing down on his principles, "liberty and freedom" will be spread by the United States of America throughout the world. In his words,

"The survival of liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in other lands. The best hope for peace in our world is the expansion of freedom in all the world……So it is the policy of the United States to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world. This is not primarily the task of arms, though we will defend ourselves and our friends by force of arms when necessary….. Today, America speaks anew to the peoples of the world: All who live in tyranny and hopelessness can know: the United States will not ignore your oppression, or excuse your oppressors. When you stand for your liberty, we will stand with you….. America, in this young century, proclaims liberty throughout all the world, and to all the inhabitants thereof. Renewed in our strength - tested, but not weary - we are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom."
Believe it or not, stolen or rigged, you might call it Votergate 2004, election anomalies in Florida and Ohio notwithstanding, the system continues evolving.

Nigerians went to polls in 2003, and Peoples 'Deceit' Party, Ooooops; Peoples Democratic Party was declared the winner. Votes were counted in places that were never zoned for election poll stations, counted votes in some areas that were five times more than the number of registered voters, results were announced before the polling booths were closed, Anambra State Executive Governor confessed of rigging the election, Ogun State election result came out to be swindled, INEC cleverly agreed that the election was rigged, the outgoing IG Tafa Balogun was alleged to have been given N2 billion to rig the election for PDP. Both in the United States and Nigeria sleeplessness, nightmares and pervasive moodiness caught their citizens and the rest of the world.

In America, Kathy Dopp, an Internet enthusiast living near Salt Lake City remarked "I love the process of democracy, and I think it's more important than the outcome," It was Ms. Dopp's analysis of the vote in Florida (she has a master's degree in mathematics) that set off a flurry of post-election theorizing by disheartened Democrats who were certain, given early surveys of voters leaving the polls that were leaked, showing Senator John Kerry winning handily, that something was amiss. The day after the election, Ms. Dopp posted to her Web site, www.ustogether.org, a table comparing party registrations in each of Florida's 67 counties, the method of voting used and the number of votes cast for each presidential candidate. Ms. Dopp, along with other statisticians contributing to the site, suggested a "surprising pattern" in Florida's result showing inexplicable gains for President Bush in Democratic counties that used optical-scan voting systems.

In Palm Beach County, Florida, USA, shortly after the election results were announced, psychotherapist Douglas Schooler treated many of John Kerry's supporters, at least 15, using intense hypnotherapy. People sought psychological help with "post-election selection trauma" in South Florida, prompting the American Health Association to officially release symptoms of the disorder and open its doors for free counseling. According to Schooler,

"The problem is out there and it's not going to go away anytime soon, Conservatives are calling me to say these people are weak-kneed kooks, but they're not acknowledging that this is a normal psychological response to a severe and disillusioning situation. Any suggestion that this is not a serious problem arises from a political agenda. The Republicans don't want this talked about."
In Nigeria, PDP wants people to believe that the election sailed smoothly, and free of fiddle, until Anambra confession and Ogun State 'discovery'.

Rob Gordon, executive director of the AHA told the Boca Raton News

"More shocking was when someone commits suicide in New York and Kerry's loss is even slightly connected, it's serious. There are a lot of older Democrats here {Florida} and they outnumber Republicans and you don't want an epidemic of suicides with the elderly. So our counseling center is now open free to those with post-election selection depression, PEST, who need to exorcise their demons."
In spite all these, President Bush was sworn-in Thursday, January 20, 2005, shortly before 12:00noon and the system continue its progression. The American society allows the voice of dissent to protest, not obstructing their liberty and freedom. Is Nigeria going to mature to that level in its political growth? Time will tell in a country where everyone is fearful of their life, if and when they tell the truth.

There were so many theories for Kerry's loss and Bush's gain. Finger pointing, in depth analysis of the voter's mindset, voting machine glitz, Black's votes going for Bush, the white conservative moral uprightness, the general apprehensiveness and phobiatic attitude toward security, all came in colors, beautiful decorative colors. The aftermath of the election results after Kerry conceded, the suicide in New York on Kerry's loss, the Psychology Test Clinic set up in Florida to help those caught in the election shock, the rigging theories postulated by many schools of thought, the American economy almost to the point of bankruptcy; war with Iraq, the paragon of corporate corruption of Halliburton in Nigeria and Iraq, the finger pointing, are part of the election results challenges Bush has to face in his second term in office as the leader of the most popular democracy around the world. Bush has promised to seek peace in his second term. That is a very cavernous challenge to his legacy. The bottom line is Bush has been elected, and sworn in for a second term like Obasanjo got 're-elected' for the second term among the unsatisfied Nigerian populace. Kerry conceded and encouraged all Americans to join hands together and move the country forward for good. Unfortunately, in Nigeria, after more than a year after the election, Buhari is still chasing the election shadow, now heading to the Supreme Court after the Ogun State election fraud and Anambra confession, instead for him to work with the current administration.

In the United States as well, after a Republican Governor has been considered the winner in Washington State election, it came out to be won by a Democrat after several recounts. The reasoning here is that there is no perfect system anywhere in the world, but we do not have to abuse it, like it is done in Nigeria. What Nigeria went through in 2003, have been done in the US in the 20s; when people carry ballot boxes to their homes, stuffed envelopes with 'green' to get peoples' vote, and the disappearance of ballot boxes. Those do not happen anymore in the United States. But as we are striving to perfect the system, so also human beings are working very hard to perfect the rigging styles, by delaying votes, misdirecting voters to wrong places, disqualifying legitimate votes, disallowing some section from casting their votes in a domineering Party loyalties, frustrating voters from voting, and other undetected rigging tactics.

Nigerians should learn to focus on the future that we can improve on, rather than spending most of our energy on the past that we cannot change. In other words we can change the future we cannot rewrite the past. Like Bush senior said when he lost to Clinton in 1992, "Life is bigger than politics." Go on with your life, while weighing your contribution to what you can do for your community.

In the recent history of American Presidency, second term always come with some historic blitz. Nixon went to his grave with the Water Gates wounds in his heart, President Reagan struggled with Iran Contra deal, and Monica's episode almost ruined Clinton's legacy. Bush second term has to face the Iraq situation, Afghanistan 'mountains', North Korean Nuclear build up, Iran controversy, the Middle East unending conflicts, the American Image around the world, and the domestic challenges - the economy, the "cultural divide", Bush needs God guidance to wade through what is in stock for him at this feeble, but fragile world. In his wisdom, he started the second term with prayer. In his inaugural speech he said

"We go forward with complete confidence in the eventual triumph of freedom. Not because history runs on the wheels of inevitability; it is human choices that move events. Not because we consider ourselves a chosen nation; God moves and chooses as He wills."
In closing he said
"May God bless you, and may He watch over the United States of America."

Obasanjo is facing mammoth challenges in his second term in office. The unresolved religious conflict in the country with the; fanatics, extremists, offshoots of bin Ladens along the Cameroon mountains in Gwoza area of Borno State, emergence of State of Emergency in Plateau State, unprofessional stone age behavior at the National Assembly with the 'slapping business' over money, 'Almighty Elephant' of the Nigerian Senate chasing the 'little rat' all over the world, disappearance of the oil vessels unnoticed by the Nigerian security agencies, Anambra saga, human rituals by the politicians, issue with the Nigerian Labor Congress, soaring Gasoline prizes, deftly corrupt public officials, and filthy Nigerian Police Force, among others, would keep Obasanjo's hair out of nutrients for growth.

The media pounded on Bush to the dislikeness of majority Americans, it did not make any difference. The Europeans media wondered out loud how 59 million of Americans can be so stupid as to reelect George W. Bush. Nigerians hallowed same thing in 2003, why they have to reelect Olusegun Obasanjo. Americans see themselves as good, decent people perfectly capable of making quality decisions. Americans strongly belief that, "Patriotism is that last refuge of a scoundrel." Nigerians could continue to puff being Giant of Africa' with all human resources bestowed on them, how much of such patriotism can Nigerians claim in their public services and civic responsibilities?

What do the American Republican Party and Nigerian Peoples Democratic Party have in common, while looking forward to the year 2007 election in Nigeria? Most Nigerians residing in the United States of America claim to be Democrats, whereas deep down in their system they belong to no political party, or closely most are Republicans, considering their life styles, their quest for their positions, their reasoning, and their concerns. According to my Ijesha people, their popular saying "iro lei pa, oun e je le iwa", literarily interpreted to mean that they are looking for what they could gain out of it.

What other lessons for Africans, especially Nigerians, to learn from the 2004 US elections? Food for thought! When African-Americans were in the Minority of the majority Party, how much of that was to the benefit of Africans? Now that African-Americans are the minority of the minority, in the minority Party, where does this situate Africans in the United States?

My readers might have read the next stage to dismantle Africans! The United States Congress was going to blame Kofi Anna, Secretary General, United Nations Organization, over his son's involvement in the Iraq oil for food program. The United States alleged that Kofi favored his son in getting some contracts from Iraq 'Oil for Food' program. The United Nations General Assembly passed a vote of confidence on Kofi, with a rousing standing ovation for doing a good job at the UNO. Africans should wake up. Nigeria role in the road to self sufficient with economic independence needs to be vigorously pursued. All the copy-cat democracy is not going to work in any part of the world, not in Nigeria Bush mentioned in his inaugural address that

"America will not impose our own style of government on the unwilling. Our goal instead is to help others find their own voice, attain their own freedom, and make their own way."
Nigeria should customize its own brand of democracy to suit its needs.

Take for instance what transpired in the United States House of Representatives on Wednesday, November 17, 2004, the House Republicans approved a party rules change that could allow Majority leader Tom DeLay to retain his leadership post if he is indicted by a Texas grand jury on state political corruption charges. By a voice vote, and with a handful of lawmakers voicing opposition, the House Republican Conference decided that a party committee of several dozen members would review any felony indictment of a party leader and recommend at that time whether the leader should step aside. The current party rule in this area requires House Republican leaders and the heads of the various committees to relinquish their positions if indicted for a crime that could bring a prison term of at least two years. It makes no distinction between a federal and state indictment. Three of DeLay's political associates already have been indicted by that Texas grand jury. It is like what I do reference that the political players move the goal post to the direction of the football, not playing by the rules. Is this what Nigeria should copy from the US democracy?

Nigerians should be thinking on some other alternatives in their life, as mentioned in some of my previous publications. Your comfort level in the United States, or anywhere you reside, could not be enough. We might repatriate ourselves to our communities, villages, Local Government areas, States to lend our 'golden' hands to the administrations in place. An average Nigerian in any part of the world today still think of home as the ONLY place despite their successes or positions. Sacrifices have to be made for the future of Nigeria and lend our skills to the government in power. We can sit back in our places of residence, bombarded Obasanjo with millions of critical analysis, while waiting for the ripe time to return home. The time may never be ripe for our returns. That does not prevent Nigerians from being critical of President Obasanjo's Constitutional abuses.

Nigerians should focus more energy on designing its form of democracy so that Nigeria does not become a one-party state. It will be wise to fuse all the mushroom political parties into more controllable numbers, unlike everyone want to be the KING. That is not possible. It is like a successful marriage of 'give and take'. One has to give up some to make a system works. Otherwise there will be more gnashing of teeth in 2007 if this is not done now. The good ones among the PDP could be kept, while the bad eggs could be cooked at a very high temperature so that they can melt away.

Whatever the analysis of the election results both in America and Nigeria, what is certain is that either side are driven by patriotism, duty, vanity, vision, and in some cases a lifelong disdain for each other. Not to complicate the political atmosphere in Nigeria, Obasanjo should never think of a third term. Nigerians hope that the Nigerian Senate would honor its decision not to revisit the Five-Year one term bill again.

Five-year one-term Presidency is a slothful approach to facing the practice of democracy. It is also a way of endorsing corruption, unproductiveness, lack of competition, lack of accountability, promoting merry go-round governance. Instead we should work at staggering the election in Nigeria for the members of the National and State Assemblies to rotate off their seats. This will ensure continuity and adequate services on their part. The present set up, while everyone get elected at the same time, is wasteful and obtuse. The State Assembly members and the Local Government Councilors positions should be reduced to part time, for them to seat for X number of dates in a calendar year.

There is nothing to laugh about in the elections in Nigeria (2003) and United States (2004). Presidents Bush and Obasanjo, are some of the lucky guys around, but should note that neither elections are nothing to laugh about, that is not funny. The system continues evolving. We wish them God guidance in their second terms.

May God bless and watch over the United States and Nigeria.