FEATURE ARTICLE

Festus TokunboMonday, July 11, 2016
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THE POLITICAL CONSEQUENCE OF BREXIT

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eaven was let loose on the 16th June 2016 when 52% of Britons decide to leave the European Union. Today, the E.U originally formed through the European Steal and Coal Community in 1951 is facing the biggest political challenges in its 65 years' history. French national front leader, Marine Le Pen has promised the French citizens to organize a referendum lf she won the presidency in 2017. The Dutch politician and founder of Dutch party for freedom, Geert Wilders has said that Netherland deserve a "NEXIT" vote. Italian Northern League is pushing for "IEXIT" Spain, Greece and Sweden are all pushing for their exit from EU exit. Apart from its economic benefits to the global economy, the greatest benefit of the European Union was that it has stabilized the global political system. Both the first world war (1914-1918) and the second world war (1939-1944) began and was largely fought in Europe. But the integration of the European politics and economics in 1951 create a shared objective for European countries and this have prevented further war for over 65 years. The BREXIT would have political consequence on the UK, European and Global political system.

ON UK POLITICS; Prime Minister David Cameroon made the biggest mistake in his political career when he proposed the referendum in 2013 as tools to achieve UK economic interest in the European Union. Cameroon never contemplate the possibility of losing, but ideas are very contagious. Once an idea is formulated and accepted in the larger society, even the idealist does not have control over such an idea. Cameroon should have pursued UK economic interest through other avenue than putting the UK European future in the balance. The BREXIT may eventually lead to Scottish exit from the UK. Scotland, a country long overdue to achieve its political independence is using the BREXIT as tools to exit the UK. The Scotland First's Minister Nicola Surgeon said a second independence referendum for Scotland is highly likely. Northern Ireland is also contemplating its membership of the UK as a result of the BREXIT. The likely exit of Scotland and Northern Ireland would devastate the economic and political Influence of the United Kingdom at the global stage. British government may also want to intensify its political and economic influence on its colonies having exit the EU to solidify UK global influence. Britain colonized almost half of the 183 countries in the world.

ON EUROPEAN POLITICS; the BREXIT would definitely lead to policy reform in the European Union mostly in the area of immigration, security and the economy. The BREXIT would also intensify agitation among EU countries to take their countries back, so Germany and France have a bigger role to play to ensure sustainability of the EU. The BREXIT may not lead to the collapse of the European Union but any exit among the other founding members of France, Belgium, Netherland, Luxemburg and Italy may eventually lead the to the collapse of the European Union. The biggest worries of most European countries is terrorism. Most of the EU members sees the massive inflow of immigrants from the Middle East as a threat to their internal security. ISIL network has successfully launched terrorist attack in France and Belgium. Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia officials have poured cold water on European Union plan to relocate asylum seekers across the EU. Germany might need to shift its ground on its immigration policy to save the future of the European Union. If Germany want to expand its population, it may do so through other avenue than the policy presently employed.

The BREXIT may also lead to expansion of the EU membership. Ukraine can become an EU member within 5 years if its successfully implement the political reform recommended by the EU. Turkey, a country over qualify and so agitated to become an EU member can actually fill the gap created by the BREXIT. But Turkey may never become an EU member because if it does, German economic interest would be compromised. Turkish citizens may be given free visa to visit the EU but Turkish membership of the EU would lead to serious competition between its products and German products in the EU markets. So, Turkey may never achieve it EU dream.

ON GLOBAL POLITICS; most Economists, Politicians, Industrialists, Philosophers and International institutions such as IMF, World Bank, United Nations and the G20 have emphasize the likely economics consequence of the BREXIT on the global economy with little attention given to the political consequence on the global politics and stability. Truly, the European Union have contributed immensely to the global economy. In 2015, the EU GDP was over $18 trillion, represent about 30% of the global GDP. The EU markets of over 500 million was also among the largest consuming market in the world. Apart from its economics influence to the global economy; the biggest effect of the EU was that it has prevented global crisis and 3rd world war, thereby stabilized the global economy. The world wars we have had in history was largely fought in the Europe soil. During his visit to Scotland in June 2016, the US Presidential flag bearer, Donald Trump said other countries would follow the UK to exit the EU. I think Trump need to be informed that the EU have stabilized the global economy for over 65 years. Winston Churchill, the former British Prime Minister once said "if we want to predict the future we must study the past" The world may not wait for 30 years before it experienced the 3rd world war if the EU eventually collapsed. That's why EU must continue to exist to ensure global stability and sustainability.

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