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Uekwo@aol.com New York, USA

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THE COLLAPSE OF AFRICA'S GIANT?

ecently, the United States National Intelligence Council in a report entitled "Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future" predicted "outright collapse of Nigeria" as a nation state within the next 15 years.

The US Intelligence claimed that "while currently Nigeria's leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja", the nation's capital.

To say the least, the report is scary especially when considered against the backdrop of the historic misrule, corruption and social malaise afflicting Nigeria- Africa's giant. As ominous as the report may be, no reasonable and patriotic Nigerian should ignore the report, as comments from President Obasanjo and key members of the National Assembly seem to suggest.

The truth is that Nigeria's problems are increasing by the day. Not even the celebrated democratic government of six years is offering any hope as millions are dying in poverty and disease while a few are swimming in questionable wealth.

It is common knowledge that all social infrastructures in the country are in comatose situation notably the National Electric Power Authority - NEPA whose power output recently dropped by 27 %. Nothing is as symptomatic of a failure of political leadership than the inability of President Obasanjo's government to provide uninterrupted power supply to the country. On assumption of office six years ago, Obasanjo promised to inoculate the epileptic NEPA and restore its vitality. Sadly enough, the more he repeated the promise, the more there was blackout.

Today, almost every family, which could afford it, owns a power generating set with its attendant problems associated with pollution, noise, maintenance and all that. Worse still is that to own a generator is not a guarantee for power supply because to operate the machine is an uphill task in the climate of constant petrol scarcity in an oil producing nation.

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There is no doubt that energy supply is at the center of economic growth. Many industries in Nigeria loose millions of dollars in providing alternative source of power supply to remain in business. Consequently, unemployment has maintained a steady rise. Less than 8% of young persons graduating from universities find jobs. About a third of this number are underemployed, engaged in jobs totally out of their career path.

The net effect of this massive unemployment is an increase in crime wave. Jobless young men who lack support have become criminals while a lot of young women have turned into prostitution. It is a common sight in the streets of Lagos- the nations' commercial center, to see hoodlums popularly called alaye boys extorting and snatching money, jewelry, cell phones and other valuables from unsuspecting passersby. These criminals conduct their operations so brazenly before the helpless security operatives.

These alaye boys have not only gained notoriety but also some kind of legitimacy. The group is a veritable recruiting ground for thugs used by politicians to foment trouble, provide security for themselves and kill political opponents. So these never-do-wells in turn gain legitimacy and become outlaws because they collude with lawmakers and law enforcement agents. This is just one of the many contradictions of the Nigerian society.

Nigeria is a country where a minister of justice under the protection of eight police officers could be killed and the government unable to fish out the perpetrators. So are other random high-profile politically motivated killings.

What about the restive Niger Delta region? Indigenes of this oil-rich area, ostensibly the bowels of Nigeria's wealth have continued to suffer ignoble treatment from subsequent Nigerian governments. From environmental degradation to unimaginable neglect in education, healthcare, good roads and other necessities of life have turned this area a manifest example of injustice. It is also one of the contradictions in Nigeria -the world's sixth largest producer of oil. Now the people cannot bear the maltreatment any more hence the constant upheaval from the region. Their agitation for resource control will continue to affect adversely the country's mono-economy.

Do we need to talk about the burgeoning ethnic sentiment that has become a creed? Appointments into offices are not because of qualification but geography of birth. About 350 ethnic nationalities that make up Nigeria are in constant competition, which often degenerate into unhealthy rivalry.

These and other problems in Nigeria compel one to consider the US Intelligence Council's prediction about the collapse of the country in 15 years very seriously.

Obasanjo may call them "prophets of doom" or, as one senator was quoted in a newspaper report that, US Intelligence lacked credibility as demonstrated in the hoax over weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, what is certain is that millions on Nigerians believe that Nigeria is very sick.

The reactions of the political elite in all intellectual honesty are naïve and sheer grandstanding which do not obliterate the fact the country is anemic and on the brink of death.

It is absolutely necessary that all Nigerians particularly the political class should take this report as a warning and therefore a challenge. It is not an opportunity to rehearse phony and dubious accomplishments that do not impact on the lives of Nigerians.

For example, the presidential election in 2007 is going to be a critical test of the continued existence of one Nigeria. The election is capable of breaking the country if politicians refuse to play by the rules. Indications are that the political atmosphere is charged with bitterness, acrimony and intolerance.

However, as Nigerians struggle to safeguard their country, it is also imperative that the United States also puts its muscle to prevent this looming calamity. Nigeria, the world's ninth most populous country is about 150 million. As the US Intelligence report accurately figured out, the humanitarian crisis that will follow a disintegrated Nigeria will be unprecedented.

Admittedly, the US has done a lot in this country, investing millions of dollars to strengthen democratic institutions. But, a lot more still needs to be done.

One area the US could help the country is in reducing the level of corruption. The US is the haven of most corrupt Nigerian government officials past and present. They own expensive property and other investments in the US. What is more, some officials of American oil companies who do business in Nigeria collude with some unpatriotic Nigerians to defraud the West African country through illicit oil deals.

So, the US Intelligence could help to track down corrupt practices involving government officials especially when they open bank accounts in the US with their names or that of friends and relations.

The US deserves thumbs up for this report. But, should this prediction come to pass, the US also deserves thumbs down because America cannot watch Nigeria collapse. A collapsed Nigeria is the fall of Africa and the US cannot let that to happen because Africa is the future of the world.

Uchenna Ekwo, Center for Media & Peace Initiative, New York